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Exploring Sustainable Solutions for
Increasing Global Food Supplies
Report of a Workshop
Committee on Food Security for All as a Sustainability Challenge
Science and Technology for Sustainability Program
Policy and Global Affairs
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This summary report and the workshop on which it was based were supported by the Bill and Melinda
Gates Foundation, the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture, and the George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for Sustainability Science. Any
opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for the project.
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street,
N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington
metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their
use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy
has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J.
Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of
Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the
selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal
government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national
needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M.
Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of
eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the
public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional
charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care,
research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad
community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the
federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has
become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities.
The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr.
Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON FOOD SECURITY FOR ALL AS A
SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGE
Per Pinstrup-Andersen (Chair), H.E. Babcock Professor of Food, Nutrition and Public
Policy, J. Thomas Clark Professor of Entrepreneurship, and Professor of Applied
Economics, Cornell University
Mike Bushell, Principal Scientific Adviser, Syngenta, Jealott’s Hill International Research
Center
Jason Clay, Senior Vice-President, Market Transformation, World Wildlife Fund
Bert Drake, Plant Physiologist, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (retired)
William (Bill) Jury, Distinguished Professor, Soil Physics and Soil Physicist, Emeritus,
University of California, Riverside
Phil Pardey, Professor of Science and Technology Policy, Department of Applied
Economics, University of Minnesota
Jules Pretty, Professor of Environment and Society and Pro-Vice Chancellor, University of
Essex
Marie Ruel, Director, Poverty, Health, and Nutrition Division, International Food Policy
Research Institute
Emmy B. Simmons, Former Assistant Administrator for Economic Growth, Agriculture, and
Trade, U.S. Agency for International Development (retired)
Kostas Stamoulis, Director, Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Dennis Treacy, Senior Vice President, Corporate Affairs and Chief Sustainability Officer,
Smithfield Food, Inc.
Laurian Unnevehr, Director, Food Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture
Paul Vlek, Professor and Director, Department of Ecology and Natural Resources of the
Center for Development Research, University of Bonn
Staff
Marina Moses, Director, Science and Technology for Sustainability Program
Pat Koshel, Senior Program Officer, Science and Technology for Sustainability Program
Jennifer Saunders, Program Officer, Science and Technology for Sustainability Program
Emi Kameyama, Program Associate, Science and Technology for Sustainability Program
Dylan Richmond, Research Assistant, Science and Technology for Sustainability Program
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PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
In May 2011, the National Research Council’s Science and Technology for
Sustainability Program convened the second of two workshops to address the
sustainability challenges associated with food security for all—Exploring Sustainable
Solutions for Increasing Global Food Supplies. The first workshop in this series—
Measuring Food Insecurity and Assessing the Sustainability of Global Food Systems—
was held in February 2011.
Estimates made by the United Nations predict that the world population will
increase to 9.3 billion by 20501 and 70 percent more food will be required, posing a
global sustainability challenge. The workshop was designed to address a set of critical
questions:
Can the world feed future generations?
Can it do it sustainably?
At what food price?
What action is needed?
Who should take the action?
Workshop objectives included identifying the major challenges and opportunities
for change associated with achieving sustainable food security and identifying needed
policy, science, and governance interventions.
While sustainable food security for all depends both on sustainable food supplies
and assuring access to food, this workshop focused specifically on assuring the
availability of adequate food supplies. Workshop participants were asked to examine
long term natural resource constraints, specifically water, land and forests, soils,
biodiversity and fisheries. They were also expected to discuss the role of knowledge,
technology, modern production practices, and infrastructure in supporting expanded
agricultural production and the significant risks to future productivity due to changes in
the climate.
Several themes were elucidated during the workshop discussions. For example,
although food supplies must be expanded to meet increasing demand arising from
population growth and rising incomes, this increase in food supplies could—but may
not—be done sustainably. While there was no agreement on how much future food
prices would change, continued price volatility is expected. Most participants noted that
the increase in production could come from more efficient use of land, water and labor.
Sustainable intensification--increasing productivity without damaging the productive
1
New UN population estimates (for 2010) were released just at the time of our workshop. These new
estimates suggested that by the end of the century the global population could reach 10.1 billion and 9.3
billion by 2050. See World Population Prospects 2010. Available at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Other-
Information/Press_Release_WPP2010.pdf. Accessed on October 1, 2011.
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capacity of natural resources—is likely to be far more important, according to many
participants, than the expansion of land devoted to agriculture. As much as 70 to 85
percent of the needed increase in production is likely to come from intensification. The
remaining production increases may come from expanding land use sometime into areas
poorly suited for agriculture, with serious environmental consequences. Some
participants noted that additional research is warranted in order to reduce yield gaps and
lift yield ceilings.
Many workshop participants stressed the importance of farm-level intensification
and improvements in soil quality and fertility. Lower levels of soil fertility are a
particular problem in Sub-Saharan Africa, where soils have been severely mined over
time. It is also important to recognize and manage critical ecosystem services and the
need to internalize ecological costs. Many participants noted that such costs, as well as
benefits, should be factored into prices to assure sustainable food supplies.
Most workshop participants recognized the potential value of organic farming
systems in reducing or avoiding continued natural resource degradation. However,
adhering to the organic farming practices as defined in the United States and EU and
“natural” systems alone cannot provide the needed productivity increases. And if
pursued on a scale needed to meet today’s demand, such practices would have significant
environmental ramifications. Furthermore, organic production methods may result in
larger emission of greenhouse gases. Most participants thought that farmers should
consider using all scientifically viable methods, including GMOs (genetically modified
organisms). Most participants stressed the need for investments in public goods,
especially rural infrastructure (e.g., roads that would support expanding) and more
efficient supply chains, and they also emphasized the importance of securing property
rights for family farms. The private sector was seen by many to have a critical role in
providing tools, new technologies and investments in the agricultural sector.
There was considerable discussion about the importance of reducing post harvest
wastes and losses, estimated to be as high as 30-40 percent of production, as a strategy to
sustainably expand food supplies. A few participants suggested a number of ways to
reduce these losses, noting that opportunities will vary by crop and by location.
Participants also stressed the importance of understanding and adapting to climate
change. Many noted that the effects of climate change are already being seen, with
significant warming in many regions and changes in precipitation making it more
difficult to increase productivity, especially for key food crops. Recent weather and
agricultural production fluctuations illustrate the impact of climate change.
Finally, some of the major factors identified by workshop participants that are
likely to constrain the expansion of food supplies include the low priority given to
agriculture by many developing country governments; inadequate international financial
commitments to agriculture and agricultural research; institutional and infrastructure
barriers to action by the private sector, including small holders; continued natural
resource degradation; and many location specific challenges. Throughout the report,
these themes are expanded upon.
This report has been prepared by the committee as a factual summary of what
occurred at the workshop, and the statements made do not necessarily represent positions
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of the workshop participants as a whole, the Science and Technology for Sustainability
Program, or the National Academies.
The workshop and report could not have come together without the help of many
dedicated staff members. Pat Koshel directed the project and coordinated the report. Emi
Kameyama, Jennifer Saunders and Dylan Richmond provided invaluable support and
assistance with our workshop and in preparing the final report.
This report is the result of substantial effort and collaboration among several
organizations and individuals. We wish to extend a sincere thanks to each member of the
planning committee for his/her contributions in scoping, developing, and carrying out this
project.
The project would not have been possible without financial support from the Bill
and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, and
the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It also benefitted from the National Academies’
internal support, provided by the George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for
Sustainability Science.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by
the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent
review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making
its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional
standards for quality and objectivity. The review comments and draft manuscript remain
confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
I wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: William
Easterling, The Pennsylvania State University; Keith Fuglie, U.S. Department of
Agriculture; Brian Greenberg, InterAction; George Hornberger, Vanderbilt University;
Rattan Lal, The Ohio State University; and Sara Scherr, EcoAgriculture Partners.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments
and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report, nor did they see
the final draft before its release. The review of this report was carried out in accordance
with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered.
Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the
institution.
Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Chair
Committee on a Study of
Food Security for All as
A Sustainability Challenge
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CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Overview 1
Contextual Framework for Workshop 2 3
2. Achieving Sustainable Food Security: Challenges and Opportunities 5
Current and Expected Future Food and Nutrition Security 5
Agricultural Productivity and Natural Resource Endowments 9
Are New Paradigms Needed for Sustainable Food Security in the Face of
Uncertainties and Risks? 11
General Discussion 14
Water for A Food-Secure World 14
Land Degradation and Sustainable Food Production: Sub-Saharan Africa 17
Global Seafood—Fisheries and Aquaculture 19
Producing More Food and More Biodiversity: Is There Potential for Both? 21
Soil Quality Of Tropical Africa: An Essential Element of Improved
Agricultural Productivity 23
General Discussion 25
Food Security, Farming and Climate Change to 2050 Scenarios: Results and
Policy Options 26
Risks and Vulnerabilities from Climate Change 29
General Discussion 31
References 32
3. Approaches to Achieving Sustainable Food Security 37
Farm-Level Sustainable Intensification 37
Food Value Chains Leading to Sustainable Intensification 40
Ecosystem Management 42
General Discussion 43
Reduction of Yield Gaps to Increase Productivity and Sustainability 44
Energy Efficiency and Food Security for All--The Impact of Fertilizer 48
General Discussion 51
Private Investment and Farm Size Issues 52
Losses and Waste in the Food Supply Chain 54
General Discussion 56
Global Governance of Natural Resources: Quantity vs. Quality 56
Global Public Goods: Food Safety 59
General Discussion 60
References 61
4. Political, Economic, and Institutional Opportunities and Barriers 65
Externalities: The Costs of Natural Resource Degradation 65
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Political Economy Issues, Priorities and Political Will 67
Incentives and Limitations to Action by Civil Society 69
Incentives and Limitations to Action by the Private Sector 71
Panel: Confront Trade-Offs, Remove National and International Externalities,
Seek Multiple Wins, and Establish Coalitions and Partnerships 75
General Discussion 78
References 79
APPENDIXES
A Workshop Agenda 81
B Workshop Participants 87
C Biographical Information: Workshop Participants 90
D Selected Bibliography 101
E Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability 110
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