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CONTENTS i
Committee on Urban Meteorology:
Scoping the Problem, Defining the Needs
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the coun-
cils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and
the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report
were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this study was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Admin-
istration under contract number NNX08AB07G, the National Oceanic and Atmo-
spheric Administration under contract number NA11OAR4600211, and the National
Science Foundation under contract number ATM-0809051. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies
that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25217-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25217-2
Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies
Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or
(202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
ii
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society
of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated
to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy
has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and tech-
nical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en-
gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members,
sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the
federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering
programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and
recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president
of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in
the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti-
tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its
congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own
initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V.
Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci-
ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the
Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government.
Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy
of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council
is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J.
Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Na-
tional Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
iii
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COMMITTEE ON URBAN METEOROLOGY:
SCOPING THE PROBLEM, DEFINING THE NEEDS
JOHN T. SNOW (Co-Chair), University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma
XUBIN ZENG (Co-Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
PETRA KLEIN, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma
STEFANIE EBELT SARNAT, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
ELLIS M. STANLEY, Dewberry, Los Angeles, California
NRC Staff
KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer
ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant
v
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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College
Park
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric
Research
RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research
KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina
GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc.
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University
ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; University
of Maryland
HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company
MICHAEL D. KING, University of Colorado
JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin-Madison
ARTHUR LEE, Chevron
ROGER B. LUKAS, University of Hawaii
SUMANT NIGAM, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, The University of Chicago
KIMBERLY PRATHER, University of California, San Diego
RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc.
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW, The University of Oklahoma
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central
XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer
KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer
DANIEL MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow
ALEX JAHN, Christine Mirzayan Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
vii
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LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant
GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate
viii
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Preface
Every two or three years, the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate (BASC) works with its core agency sponsors to select a topic for a
special “summer study.” The purpose of these summer studies is to provide
an opportunity for scientists, the private sector, and agencies to explore cur-
rent issues in an interactive format. Sometimes these studies address practical
problems, such as communicating uncertainties in weather forecasts (NRC,
2003a), developing effective response strategies through a better under-
standing of the impact of simultaneously occurring environmental changes
(NRC, 2007a), or identifying pressing high level, weather-focused research
challenges and research to operations needs (NRC, 2010a). Other times
they address specialized technical issues, such as improving the physical
parameterizations in coupled atmosphere-ocean-land models (NRC, 2005).
Summer studies are all designed around a small workshop where partici-
pants gather to have candid discussions on a topic identified by the Board
and its core sponsors as timely, important, and not likely to be requested
by any one agency. We use the opportunity to bring communities together
for forward-looking conversation.
The 2011 BASC summer study focused on current and emerging fore-
casting and monitoring technologies for the urban environment, and sought
input and feedback from diverse communities of scholars, technology pro-
viders, and users of such information. A planning committee, constituted by
BASC and the National Research Council (NRC), developed the workshop
agenda, selected participants who contributed presentations and took part
in plenary and small group discussions, and synthesized the discussions
into this report.
The workshop was held July 27-28, 2011 at the J. Erik Jonsson Center of
the National Academy of Sciences in Woods Hole, MA. More than 40 experts
from academia, federal and local government, national laboratories, private
sector, and the stakeholder end user community participated in the two-day
ix
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x PREFACE
workshop. The format was a mix of keynote presentations, panel discussions,
and working groups. Appendix C provides the workshop agenda, participant
list, and working group discussion questions. Appendix A contains abstracts
from the three keynote speakers. The workshop provided much of the infor-
mation for this report. To build upon the information-gathering workshop,
the committee held one in-person meeting, several teleconferences, and
conducted literature reviews to elaborate on the workshop questions. This
report is peer reviewed and contains conclusions, but not recommendations,
and is primarily addressed to the sponsoring agencies1 and users of urban
meteorology information.
The committee extends its thanks to the many individuals whose con-
tributions have made possible this report on the emerging field of urban
meteorology. These include the many invited experts listed in Appendix C
who took the time to travel to Woods Hole and actively participate during
the plenary sessions and working groups at the workshop. The commit-
tee particularly thanks the three keynote speakers, Sue Grimmond, Walter
Dabberdt, and Brian Stone, for their invited workshop presentations and
their extended abstracts in Appendix A. The committee extends its special
appreciation to Fred Carr, Jerry Brotzge, and Brenda Philips for providing the
material on “The Dallas-Fort Worth Urban Testbed” in Appendix B.
The committee could also not have achieved its objectives without the
support of the BASC staff. Our sincere thanks are extended to Ms. Katie
Thomas, Associate Program Officer; Ms. Elizabeth Finkelman, Program
Assistant; Chris Elfring, BASC Director; and Rita Gaskins, Administrative
Coordinator.
Finally, the co-chairs applaud and thank the committee members who
volunteered countless hours planning the workshop and subsequently writ-
ing this report.
For the committee, this has been a unique journey in learning some
of the diverse needs of end users of urban weather information. What we
have learned will motivate us to work to further advance the science and
technology of this important emerging field.
John Snow, Co-Chair
Xubin Zeng, Co-Chair
Committee on Urban Meteorology:
Scoping the Problem, Defining the Needs
1 This study was organized by the National Research Council with funding from the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
and the National Science Foundation.
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Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for
their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro-
cedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of
this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that
will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible
and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity,
evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments
and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the
deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their
review of this report:
Jeffrey Basara, University of Oklahoma
Michael Batty, University College London
Julie DeMuth, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Teddy Holt, Naval Research Laboratory
Pete Manousos, FirstEnergy Corporation
Thomas Matte, New York City of Department of Health and Mental
Hygiene
Jamie Voogt, University of Western Ontario
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions
or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before
its release. The review of this report was overseen by George Frederick,
Falcon Consultants LLC. Appointed by the National Research Council, he
was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this
report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that
all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final
content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the
institution.
xi
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Contents
SUMMARY 1
1 INTRODUCTION 15
Exploring Opportunities to Improve Urban Weather Information, 18
Charge and Approach, 22
Organization of the Report, 24
2 END USER NEEDS 25
End Users of Urban Meteorological Information and their Needs, 25
End User Needs not being Met by Current Urban Level Forecasting
and Monitoring, 28
Underutilized Urban Forecasting and Monitoring Capabilities, 46
Communications across Disciplines, 47
Approaches to Strengthen Ties between Communities, 50
Key Themes from the Workshop, 53
3 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 57
Urban Meteorology: A Synopsis of the Science, 61
Advances in Urban Forecasting and Monitoring Techniques, 66
Emerging Technologies in Meteorological Forecasting and
Monitoring, 81
Remaining Needs and Future Challenges, 89
FUTURE DIRECTIONS 93
4
Short-Term Needs, 94
Challenges, 100
Final Thoughts, 110
REFERENCES 111
xiii
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xiv CONTENTS
APPENDIXES
A Keynote Speaker Abstracts 129
B Case study: Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Testbed 153
C Workshop Information 157
D Statement of Task 165
E Acronym List 167
F Committee and Staff Biographical Sketches 173
