A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Draft Strategic Plan

Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies

Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington D.C.
www.nap.edu



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A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Draft Strategic Plan Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies Board on Environmental Change and Society Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number DG133R08CQ0062, Task Order #8. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor or any of its sub agencies. International Standard Book Number -13: 978-0-309-25237-9 International Standard Book Number -10: 0-309-25237-7 Copies of this report are available from the program office: Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3512 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE TO ADVISE THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM WARREN M. WASHINGTON (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado KAI N. LEE, (Vice Chair), The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Los Altos, California MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon DOUG ARENT, National Energy Renewable Laboratory, Golden, Colorado SUSAN K. AVERY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas, Austin THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University, East Lansing HENRY D. JACOBY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor IAN ROY NOBLE, Global Adaption Institute, Vienna, Virginia CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas KAREN C. SETO, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut KATHLEEN J. TIERNEY, University of Colorado, Boulder CHARLES J. VOROSMARTY, City University of New York, New York JOHN M. WALLACE, University of Washington, Seattle GARY W. YOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut Ex-officio liaisons: ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park RICHARD H.MOSS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park NRC Staff: LAURIE GELLER, Study Director PAUL C. STERN, Study Director DAN MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant v

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Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report: Robert H. Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation, Arlington VA Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA Isaac Held, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ Thomas J. Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN Steven C. Wofsy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA Richard N. Wright, National Institute of Standards and Technology (Ret), Montgomery Village, MD Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Frosch (Harvard University) and Susan Hansen (Clark University), appointed by the National Research Council, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vi

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Institutional oversight for this project was provided by: BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, New York, New York ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey MICHAEL D. KING, University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric & Space Physics, Boulder, Colorado JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin, Madison ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California ROGER B. LUKAS, University of Hawaii, Honolulu SUMANT NIGAM, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, Maryland RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, University of Chicago, Illinois KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, DC DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate DAN MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Program Assistant GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate APRIL MELVIN, Christine Mirazayan Science and Technology Fellow vii

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Institutional oversight for this project was provided by: BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY (formerly the ‘Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change’) RICHARD H.MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Univ. of Maryland, College Park ARUN AGRAWAL, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worsester, Massachusetts WILLIAM CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, Maryland RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, New York KRISTIE L. EBI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II, Technical Support Unit, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, California MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DENNIS OJIMA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins STEPHEN POLASKY, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Center for Environmental Studies, Brown Univ., Providence, Rhode Island JAMES L. SWEENEY, Stanford University, California GARY W. YOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut NRC Staff MEREDITH A. LANE, Board Director PAUL C. STERN, Senior Scholar ALICIA JARAMILLO-UNDERWOOD, Senior Program Assistant viii

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Contents SUMMARY…………………………………………………………………………………....1 1. INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………………………….…3 2. CONVEYING THE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH ………………………………………………………..6 3. GLOBAL CHANGE VERSUS CLIMATE CHANGE ……………………………………8 4. COMMENTS ON SPECIFIC TOPICS WITHIN PROGRAM GOALS 1-4…………..…12 Observations, Modeling, and Data Management, 12 Social Sciences Research, 18 Ecological Sciences Research, 23 Mitigation and Adaptation , 25 Decision Support, 30 Communication, Education, Workforce Development, 36 Key Messages Regarding Expansion of the Program, 38 5. PROCESS, STRUCTURE, AND IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES………………..……..41 REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………………………....44 APPENDICES A: Statement of Task………………………………………………………………………...49 B: Committee Member Biosketches ……………………………………………………..….51 C: Comments from members of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change……………………………....57 ix

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