Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page R1
A Review of the
U.S. Global Change Research Program’s
Draft Strategic Plan
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
OCR for page R2
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences
and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under
contract number DG133R08CQ0062, Task Order #8. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or
recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the sponsor or any of its sub agencies.
International Standard Book Number -13: 978-0-309-25237-9
International Standard Book Number -10: 0-309-25237-7
Copies of this report are available from the program office:
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3512
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth
Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the
Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
OCR for page R3
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority
of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it
to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is
president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is
autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National
Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National
Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs,
encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr.
Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to
the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and
education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of
furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in
providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering
communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively,
of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
OCR for page R4
OCR for page R5
COMMITTEE TO ADVISE
THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
WARREN M. WASHINGTON (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, Colorado
KAI N. LEE, (Vice Chair), The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Los Altos,
California
MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
DOUG ARENT, National Energy Renewable Laboratory, Golden, Colorado
SUSAN K. AVERY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas, Austin
THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University, East Lansing
HENRY D. JACOBY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
IAN ROY NOBLE, Global Adaption Institute, Vienna, Virginia
CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas
KAREN C. SETO, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
KATHLEEN J. TIERNEY, University of Colorado, Boulder
CHARLES J. VOROSMARTY, City University of New York, New York
JOHN M. WALLACE, University of Washington, Seattle
GARY W. YOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut
Ex-officio liaisons:
ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland,
College Park
RICHARD H.MOSS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland,
College Park
NRC Staff:
LAURIE GELLER, Study Director
PAUL C. STERN, Study Director
DAN MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
v
OCR for page R6
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s
Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and
critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and
responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain
confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following
individuals for their participation in their review of this report:
Robert H. Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation, Arlington VA
Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
Isaac Held, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ
Thomas J. Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
Steven C. Wofsy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
Richard N. Wright, National Institute of Standards and Technology (Ret),
Montgomery Village, MD
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and
suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the
report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Frosch (Harvard
University) and Susan Hansen (Clark University), appointed by the National Research Council,
who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was
carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were
carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the
authoring committee and the institution.
vi
OCR for page R7
Institutional oversight for this project was provided by:
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,
Colorado
RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, New York, New York
ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland,
College Park
HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey
MICHAEL D. KING, University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric & Space Physics,
Boulder, Colorado
JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin, Madison
ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
ROGER B. LUKAS, University of Hawaii, Honolulu
SUMANT NIGAM, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, Maryland
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, DC
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey
KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer
KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
DAN MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Program Assistant
GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate
APRIL MELVIN, Christine Mirazayan Science and Technology Fellow
vii
OCR for page R8
Institutional oversight for this project was provided by:
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
(formerly the ‘Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change’)
RICHARD H.MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Univ. of Maryland, College Park
ARUN AGRAWAL, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worsester, Massachusetts
WILLIAM CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, Maryland
RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, New York
KRISTIE L. EBI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II, Technical Support
Unit, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, California
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
DENNIS OJIMA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
STEPHEN POLASKY, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Center for Environmental Studies, Brown Univ., Providence, Rhode Island
JAMES L. SWEENEY, Stanford University, California
GARY W. YOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut
NRC Staff
MEREDITH A. LANE, Board Director
PAUL C. STERN, Senior Scholar
ALICIA JARAMILLO-UNDERWOOD, Senior Program Assistant
viii
OCR for page R9
Contents
SUMMARY…………………………………………………………………………………....1
1. INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………………………….…3
2. CONVEYING THE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF
GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH ………………………………………………………..6
3. GLOBAL CHANGE VERSUS CLIMATE CHANGE ……………………………………8
4. COMMENTS ON SPECIFIC TOPICS WITHIN PROGRAM GOALS 1-4…………..…12
Observations, Modeling, and Data Management, 12
Social Sciences Research, 18
Ecological Sciences Research, 23
Mitigation and Adaptation , 25
Decision Support, 30
Communication, Education, Workforce Development, 36
Key Messages Regarding Expansion of the Program, 38
5. PROCESS, STRUCTURE, AND IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES………………..……..41
REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………………………....44
APPENDICES
A: Statement of Task………………………………………………………………………...49
B: Committee Member Biosketches ……………………………………………………..….51
C: Comments from members of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
and Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change……………………………....57
ix
OCR for page R10
