A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Draft Strategic Plan
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington D.C.
www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number DG133R08CQ0062, Task Order #8. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor or any of its sub agencies.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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COMMITTEE TO ADVISE
THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
WARREN M. WASHINGTON (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KAI N. LEE, (Vice Chair), The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Los Altos, California
MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
DOUG ARENT, National Energy Renewable Laboratory, Golden, Colorado
SUSAN K. AVERY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas, Austin
THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University, East Lansing
HENRY D. JACOBY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
IAN ROY NOBLE, Global Adaption Institute, Vienna, Virginia
CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas
KAREN C. SETO, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
KATHLEEN J. TIERNEY, University of Colorado, Boulder
CHARLES J. VOROSMARTY, City University of New York, New York
JOHN M. WALLACE, University of Washington, Seattle
GARY W. YOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut
Ex-officio liaisons:
ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park
RICHARD H.MOSS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park
NRC Staff:
LAURIE GELLER, Study Director
PAUL C. STERN, Study Director
DAN MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:
Robert H. Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation, Arlington VA
Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
Isaac Held, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ
Thomas J. Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
Steven C. Wofsy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
Richard N. Wright, National Institute of Standards and Technology (Ret), Montgomery Village, MD
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Frosch (Harvard University) and Susan Hansen (Clark University), appointed by the National Research Council, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, New York, New York
ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park
HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey
MICHAEL D. KING, University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric & Space Physics, Boulder, Colorado
JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin, Madison
ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
ROGER B. LUKAS, University of Hawaii, Honolulu
SUMANT NIGAM, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, Maryland
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, DC
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey
KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer
KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
DAN MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Program Assistant
GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate
APRIL MELVIN, Christine Mirazayan Science and Technology Fellow
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
(formerly the ‘Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change’)
RICHARD H.MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Univ. of Maryland, College Park
ARUN AGRAWAL, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worsester, Massachusetts
WILLIAM CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, Maryland
RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, New York
KRISTIE L. EBI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II, Technical Support Unit, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, California
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
DENNIS OJIMA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
STEPHEN POLASKY, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Center for Environmental Studies, Brown Univ., Providence, Rhode Island
JAMES L. SWEENEY, Stanford University, California
GARY W. YOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut
NRC Staff
MEREDITH A. LANE, Board Director
PAUL C. STERN, Senior Scholar
ALICIA JARAMILLO-UNDERWOOD, Senior Program Assistant
Contents
2. CONVEYING THE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
3. GLOBAL CHANGE VERSUS CLIMATE CHANGE
4. COMMENTS ON SPECIFIC TOPICS WITHIN PROGRAM GOALS 1–4
Observations, Modeling, and Data Management
Communication, Education, Workforce Development
Key Messages Regarding Expansion of the Program
5. PROCESS, STRUCTURE, AND IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES