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Transportation Research Board SPECIAL REPORT 308 the safety Promise and challenge of Automotive electronics InsIghts from UnIntended AccelerAtIon Committee on Electronic Vehicle Controls and Unintended Acceleration, Transportation Research Board Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Transportation Research Board Washington, D.C. 2012 www.TRB.org

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Transportation Research Board Special Report 308 Subscriber Categories Policy; safety and human factors; vehicles and equipment Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering individual publications directly from the TRB Business Office, through the Internet at www.TRB. org or national-academies.org/trb, or by annual subscription through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB. Affiliates and library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts. For further information, contact the Transportation Research Board Business Office, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (telephone 202-334-3213; fax 202-334-2519; or e-mail TRBsales@nas.edu). Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report was sponsored by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Cover and inside design by Debra Naylor, Naylor Design. Cover photo by George Dolgikh, shutterstock.com. Typesetting by Circle Graphics, Inc. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Electronic Vehicle Controls and Unintended Acceleration. The safety promise and challenge of automotive electronics : insights from unintended acceleration / Committee on Electronic Vehicle Controls and Unintended Acceleration, Transportation Research Board, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, National Research Council of the National Academies. p. cm.—(Transportation Research Board special report ; 308) ISBN 978-0-309-22304-1 1. Automobiles—Electronic equipment—United States—Reliability. 2. Automobiles—Handling characteristics—United States. I. Title. TL272.5.N38 2012 363.12'51—dc23 2012001092

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating soci- ety of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedi- cated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engi- neers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the gov- ernment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and infor- mation exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the pub- lic interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, fed- eral agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the devel- opment of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

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Transportation Research Board Executive Committee* Chair: Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson Vice Chair: Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, Virginia Executive Director: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, Kentucky William A. V. Clark, Professor of Geography (emeritus) and Professor of Statistics (emeritus), Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles Eugene A. Conti, Jr., Secretary of Transportation, North Carolina Department of Transportation, Raleigh James M. Crites, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport, Texas Paula J. C. Hammond, Secretary, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia Michael W. Hancock, Secretary, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort Chris T. Hendrickson, Duquesne Light Professor of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Adib K. Kanafani, Professor of the Graduate School, University of California, Berkeley (Past Chair, 2009) Gary P. LaGrange, President and CEO, Port of New Orleans, Louisiana Michael P. Lewis, Director, Rhode Island Department of Transportation, Providence Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada Department of Transportation, Carson City Joan McDonald, Commissioner, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington (Past Chair, 2010) Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Regional General Manager, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Mandeville, Louisiana Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, Missouri Beverly A. Scott, General Manager and CEO, Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, Atlanta, Georgia *Membership as of April 2012.

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David Seltzer, Principal, Mercator Advisors LLC, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Kumares C. Sinha, Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana Thomas K. Sorel, Commissioner, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies; and Acting Director, Energy Efficiency Center, University of California, Davis Kirk T. Steudle, Director, Michigan Department of Transportation, Lansing Douglas W. Stotlar, President and Chief Executive Officer, Con-Way, Inc., Ann Arbor, Michigan C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin (Past Chair, 1991) Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, Georgia (ex officio) Anne S. Ferro, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. (ex officio) John T. Gray II, Senior Vice President, Policy and Economics, Association of American Railroads, Washington, D.C. (ex officio) John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C. (ex officio) Michael P. Huerta, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) David T. Matsuda, Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) Michael P. Melaniphy, President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, D.C. (ex officio) Victor M. Mendez, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) Tara O’Toole, Under Secretary for Science and Technology, U.S. Department of Homeland Security (ex officio) Robert J. Papp (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of Homeland Security (ex officio)

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Cynthia L. Quarterman, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) Peter M. Rogoff, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) David L. Strickland, Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) Polly Trottenberg, Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. General, U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Washington, D.C. (ex officio) Barry R. Wallerstein, Executive Officer, South Coast Air Quality Management District, Diamond Bar, California (ex officio) Gregory D. Winfree, Acting Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)

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Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Andrew Brown, Jr., NAE, Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan, Chair William F. Banholzer, NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan Marilyn Brown, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta William Cavanaugh, NAE, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina Paul A. DeCotis, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York Christine Ehlig-Economides, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station Sherri Goodman, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia Narain Hingorani, NAE, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California Robert J. Huggett, Consultant, Seaford, Virginia Debbie Niemeier, University of California, Davis Daniel Nocera, NAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Dan Reicher, Climate Change & Energy Initiatives, Google Bernard Robertson, NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan Gary Rogers, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan Alison Silverstein, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas Mark H. Thiemens, NAS, University of California, San Diego Richard White, Oppenheimer & Company, New York Staff James J. Zucchetto, Senior Program/Board Director John Holmes, Senior Program Officer and Associate Board Director Dana Caines, Financial Manager Alan Crane, Senior Scientist Jonna Hamilton, Program Officer LaNita Jones, Administrative Coordinator Alice Williams, Senior Project Assistant E. Jonathan Yanger, Senior Project Assistant

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Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Robert F. Sproull, NAE, Oracle Corporation (retired), Chair Prithviraj Banerjee, Hewlett-Packard Company, Palo Alto, California Steven M. Bellovin, NAE, Columbia University, New York, New York Jack L. Goldsmith III, Harvard Law School, Cambridge, Massachusetts Seymour E. Goodman, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia Jon M. Kleinberg, NAE, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York Robert Kraut, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Susan Landau, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts Peter Lee, Microsoft Research, Redmond, Washington David E. Liddle, U.S. Venture Partners, Menlo Park, California Prabhakar Raghavan, NAE, Yahoo! Labs, Sunnyvale, California David E. Shaw, NAE, D. E. Shaw Research, New York, New York Alfred Z. Spector, NAE, Google, Inc., New York, New York John Stankovic, University of Virginia, Charlottesville John A. Swainson, Dell, Inc., Round Rock, Texas Peter Szolovits, IOM, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Peter J. Weinberger, Google, Inc., New York, New York Ernest J. Wilson, University of Southern California, Los Angeles Katherine Yelick, University of California, Berkeley Staff Jon Eisenberg, Director Renee Hawkins, Financial and Administrative Manager Herbert S. Lin, Chief Scientist Lynette I. Millett, Senior Program Officer Emily Ann Meyer, Program Officer Virginia Bacon Talati, Associate Program Officer Enita A. Williams, Associate Program Officer Shenae Bradley, Senior Program Assistant Eric Whitaker, Senior Program Assistant

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Committee on Electronic Vehicle Controls and Unintended Acceleration Louis J. Lanzerotti, NAE, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, Chair Dennis C. Bley, Buttonwood Consulting, Inc., Oakton, Virginia Raymond M. Brach, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana Daniel L. Dvorak, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California David Gerard, Lawrence University, Appleton, Wisconsin Deepak K. Goel, TechuServe LLC, Ann Arbor, Michigan Daniel Jackson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Linos J. Jacovides, NAE, Grosse Pointe Farms, Michigan Pradeep Lall, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama John D. Lee, University of Wisconsin, Madison Adrian K. Lund, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Arlington, Virginia Michael J. Oliver, MAJR Products, Seagertown, Pennsylvania William A. Radasky, Metatech Corporation, Goleta, California Nadine B. Sarter, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor James W. Sturges, Greer, South Carolina Dennis F. Wilkie, NAE, Birmingham, Michigan National Research Council Staff Thomas R. Menzies, Jr., Study Director, Transportation Research Board Alan Crane, Senior Scientist, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Jon Eisenberg, Director, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Mark Hutchins, Program Officer, Transportation

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Preface From summer 2009 through spring 2010, news media were filled with reports of drivers claiming that their cars accelerated unintentionally. The nature of the claims varied. Some drivers reported that their vehicles sped up without pressure being applied to the accelerator pedal, and others reported that gentle pressure on the accelerator pedal caused rapid or inconsistent acceleration. Other drivers reported that their vehicles con- tinued to be propelled forward by engine torque even after the accel- erator pedal had been released.1 The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) observed a spike in motorist complaints about these phenomena. Toyota Motor Corporation, whose vehicles were the subject of many of the complaints, issued recalls for millions of vehicles to address accelerator pedals that could be entrapped by floor mats and to fix pedal assemblies that were susceptible to sticking. Scores of lawsuits were filed against Toyota by vehicle owners (Reuters 2011). In the wake of the highly publicized Toyota recalls,2 hundreds of other drivers filed As described later in the report, the term “unintended acceleration” is often used interchangeably in 1 reference to these and other vehicle behaviors reported in consumer complaints such as hesitation when the accelerator pedal is pressed, lurching during gear changes, and fluctuation in engine idle speeds. This report does not define the behaviors that constitute unintended acceleration but refers to definitions used by NHTSA. In its report Technical Assessment of Toyota Electronic Throttle Control (ETC) Systems, NHTSA (2011, vi, footnote 1) defines unintended acceleration as “the occurrence of any degree of acceleration that the vehicle driver did not purposely cause to occur.” One ABC News report in particular, broadcast on February 22, 2010, received considerable public 2 attention. The report claimed that Toyota’s electronic throttle control system could malfunction to cause unintended acceleration. http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/toyota-recall-electronic-design-flaw- linked-toyota-runaway-acceleration-problems/story?id=9909319.

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xii || Preface complaints of unintended acceleration episodes with NHTSA.3 Congress held hearings,4 and individuals with expertise ranging from human fac- tors to electronics hardware and software offered theories on other pos- sible causes. The electronics in the automobile throttle control system were at the center of many of these theories. Some observers with a long exposure to highway safety were reminded of events 25 years earlier, when owners of Audi cars reported a much higher-than-usual occurrence of unintended acceleration. A major differ- ence is that the Audi and other vehicles manufactured during the 1980s contained relatively few electronics systems, and the control of the vehi- cle’s throttle was mechanical. NHTSA had attributed the cause of Audi’s problems to drivers mistakenly applying the accelerator pedal when they intended to apply the brake, perhaps confused by the vehicle’s pedal lay- out or startled by intermittent high engine idle speeds. The design and functionality of these traditional mechanical throttle systems, which use a cable and other mechanical connections running from the accelerator pedal to the throttle to open and close it, are simple and straightforward. In contrast, the electronic throttle control systems (ETCs) in use in nearly all modern automobiles, including the recalled Toyotas, rely on electronic signals transmitted by wire from the pedal assembly to a computer that controls the throttle position. Mass introduced about 10 years ago, the ETC is one of many electronics systems that have been added to automo- biles during the past 25 years. Some failures of software and other faults in electronics systems do not leave physical evidence of their occurrence, which can complicate assessment of the causes of unusual behaviors in the modern, electronics- intensive automobile. Reminded of the adage “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” the committee regularly discussed the poten- tial for such untraceable faults to underlie reports of unsafe vehicle behaviors such as episodes of unintended acceleration. As media atten- tion over unintended acceleration heightened, the distinction that NHTSA had used for decades to identify unintended acceleration cases caused by pedal misapplication was given little regard. Instead, the pedal NHTSA shows how driver complaints of unintended acceleration fluctuated during 2009 and 2010 fol- 3 lowing recall announcements, congressional hearings, and publicized crashes (NHTSA 2011, Figure 2). Hearings before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee 4 on Oversight and Investigations, February 23, 2010, and May 20, 2010. http://democrats.energycom merce.house.gov/index.php?q=hearing/hearing-on-update-on-toyota-and-nhtsa-s-response-to-the- problem-of-sudden-unintended-acceler.

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xiii Preface || misapplication cases were often intermixed in media accounts with other instances of unintended acceleration that NHTSA concluded were caused by pedal entrapment and sticking. The committee was well into its information-gathering phase before it fully appreciated NHTSA’s reasoning for distinguishing instances of pedal misapplication from other sources of unintended acceleration. While untraceable electronics faults may be suspected causes of unin- tended acceleration, this explanation is unsatisfactory when the driver also reports experiencing immediate and full loss of braking. However, such reports are common among complaints of unintended acceleration, and NHTSA attributes them to pedal misapplication when investigations offer no other credible explanation for the catastrophic and coincidental loss of braking. This observation has no bearing on the fact that faults in electronics systems can be untraceable, but it indicates the importance of considering the totality of the evidence in investigations of reports of unsafe vehicle behaviors. During the peak of the unintended acceleration controversy in March 2010, NHTSA enlisted the National Aeronautics and Space Administra- tion (NASA) in an in-depth examination of the potential for vulnerabil- ities in the electronics of the Toyota ETC. NHTSA also requested this National Research Council (NRC) study to review investigations of unin- tended acceleration and to recommend ways to strengthen the agency’s safety oversight of automotive electronics systems. In response to NHTSA’s request, NRC appointed the Committee on Electronic Vehicle Controls and Unintended Acceleration to provide a balance of expertise and perspectives relevant to the task statement (contained in Chapter 1). NHTSA expected the NASA investigation to be completed in time for its results to inform the work of this committee, which held its first meeting on June 30, 2010. The NASA report was completed approxi- mately 7 months after the committee’s first meeting, during February 2011. NASA reported finding no evidence of Toyota’s ETC being a plau- sible cause of unintended acceleration characteristic of a large throttle opening. The NASA investigators further confirmed NHTSA’s conclusion that the ETC could not disable the brakes so as to cause loss of braking capacity, as often reported by drivers experiencing unintended accelera- tion commencing in a vehicle that had been stopped or moving slowly. Not knowing the outcome of the NASA investigation until partway through its deliberations, the committee spent a great deal of time during the early stages of its work considering the broader safety issues

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xiv || Preface associated with the growth in automotive electronics and the implica- tions for NHTSA’s regulatory, research, and defect investigations pro- grams. The consideration of these issues proved beneficial and shaped many of the findings and recommendations in this report. The com- mittee learned how electronics systems are transforming the automo- bile and how they are likely to continue to do so for years to come. In this respect, controversies similar to that involving the Toyota ETC may recur and involve other automobile manufacturers and other types of electronics systems in vehicles. Because of NASA’s work, the causes of unintended acceleration by Toyota vehicles are clearer today than they were when the committee convened for the first time some 18 months ago. Nevertheless, whether the technical justification for suspecting electronics systems in this par- ticular instance warranted the attention given to them and the commis- sioning of the detailed NASA study is a question that deserves consideration in view of the potential for electronics to be implicated in many other safety issues as their uses proliferate. Knowing what to look for and when to pursue electronics as a candidate cause of unsafe vehicle behaviors will be increasingly important to NHTSA. It is with this in mind that the com- mittee provides its recommendations to the agency. The content, findings, and recommendations in this report repre- sent the consensus effort of a dedicated committee of 16 members, all of whom were uncompensated and served in the public interest. Drawn from multiple disciplines, the members brought expertise from automo- tive electronics design and manufacturing, software development and evaluation, human–systems integration, safety and risk analysis, crash investigation and forensics, electromagnetic testing and compatibility, electrical and electronics engineering, and economics and regulation. The committee met a total of 15 times—11 times in person and four times through teleconference. During most of these meetings the com- mittee convened in sessions open to the public to gather data to inform its deliberations. The data gathering was extensive, involving more than 60 speakers from NHTSA, NASA, and other government agencies; universities and research institutions; consultants; standards organiza- tions; automotive, aerospace, and medical device companies; consumer research organizations; and advocacy and interest groups. In addition, the committee visited with the automotive manufacturers Ford Motor Company, General Motors Company, and Mercedes-Benz and received briefings from Toyota and Continental Automotive Systems. These visits

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xv Preface || were not designed to evaluate each company’s product development processes but instead to obtain background information on how manu- facturers strive to ensure that electronics systems perform safely. The committee also provided a forum for comments by individuals who had reported experiencing unintended acceleration. Although it was not charged with investigating the causes of unintended accelera- tion, the committee found these firsthand motorist accounts to be reveal- ing of the challenge that NHTSA and other investigators face in trying to ascertain the causes of unexpected vehicle behaviors. The names of the motorists who spoke during this forum as well as the many other indi- viduals who briefed the committee are provided in the acknowledg- ments section below. When they were appointed to the committee, the majority of members—all recognized experts in their respective fields—did not have detailed knowledge of the concerns surrounding unintended acceleration or NHTSA’s vehicle safety programs. As a multidisciplinary group, the committee faced a steep learning curve, which these numer- ous data-gathering sessions, expert briefings, literature and document reviews, and extensive meeting discussions helped to overcome. In being assigned to a highly charged topic, the committee’s objectivity and inquisitiveness were its strengths at the outset of the project. These qualities remained with the committee throughout its deliberations and are reflected in the report. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The committee thanks the many individuals who contributed to its work. During its information-gathering sessions open to the public, the com- mittee was briefed by the following officials from NHTSA: David Strick- land, Administrator; Daniel C. Smith, Senior Associate Administrator, Vehicle Safety; John Maddox, Associate Administrator, Vehicle Safety Research; Richard Boyd, Director, Office of Defects Investigation (ODI); Richard Compton, Director, Office of Behavioral Safety Research; Chip Chidester, Director, Office of Data Acquisitions; Roger Saul, Director, Vehi- cle Research and Test Center (VRTC); Jeffrey L. Quandt, Vehicle Control Division Chief, ODI; Christina Morgan, Early Warning Division Chief, ODI; Gregory Magno, Defects Assessment Division Chief, ODI; Nathaniel Beuse, Director, Office of Crash Avoidance Standards, Rulemaking; and

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xvi || Preface Frank Barickman, VRTC. In addition, John Hinch, retired NHTSA Director of the Office of Human–Vehicle Performance Research, briefed the com- mittee on the agency’s rules concerning event data recorders. The following university researchers briefed the committee: Paul Fischbeck, Professor, Engineering and Public Policy and Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University; Michael Pecht, Chair Professor, Mechanical Engineering, and Director of the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering, University of Maryland; Todd Hub- ing, Michelin Professor, Vehicle Electronic Systems Integration, and Director, Clemson University International Center for Automotive Research; Stefan Savage, Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, San Diego; and Tadayoshi Kohno, Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Washington. Information on standards activities was provided by Joseph D. Miller, TRW Automotive Member ISO TC22 SC3, Working Group 16; Margaret Jenny, President, RTCA, Inc.; and Thomas M. Kowalick, Chair, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Global Standards for Motor Vehi- cle Event Data Recorders. Information on safety assurance processes and regulatory oversight and safety analysis in other industries was provided by David Walen, Chief Scientific and Technical Adviser on Electromagnetic Interference and Lightning, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA); Thomas Fancy, Technical Fellow, Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation; Michael D. James, FAA DER Engine Control Systems, Honeywell Aerospace; Thomas Gross, Deputy Director, Post-Market Science, Office of Surveillance and Biometrics, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA); Jeffrey Silberberg, Senior Electronics Engi- neer, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, FDA; Daniel J. Dum- mer, Engineering Director, Reliability Test, Medtronic CRDM; William DuMouchel, Oracle Health Services; and Brian Murray, United Tech- nologies Research Center. Additional briefings on varied topics were provided by David Champion, Director, Auto Test Center, Consumers Union; Ronald A. Belt, retired, Honeywell Corporation; Sean Kane, Safety Research and Strategies, Inc.; Ellen Liberman, Felix Click, MLS; Randy Whitfield, Quality Control Systems, Inc.; William Rosenbluth, Automotive Systems Analysis; Keith Armstrong, Cherry Clough Consultants; Joan Claybrook, Public Citizen; and Clarence Ditlow, Center for Auto Safety.

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xvii Preface || NASA held a special briefing on its investigation led by Michael Kirsch, with participation from Michael Bay, Victoria Regenie, Poul Andersen, Michael Crane, Robert Scully, Mitchell Davis, Oscar Gonzalez, Michael Aguilar, Robert Kichak, and Cynthia Null. Robert Strassburger of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers briefed the committee at its first meeting and was instrumental in arrang- ing visits with and briefings by automotive companies. The committee’s visit with Ford was arranged and led by Ray Nevi and Mark Tuneff. The committee’s visit with General Motors was arranged by Stephen Gehring. Briefings from Continental were led by Philip Headley. Briefings by Mercedes-Benz were arranged by Barbara Wendling and William Craven. Kevin Ro and Kristen Tabar arranged briefings by Toyota, which were led by Seigo Kuzumaki. The following individuals spoke to the committee about their experi- ences with unintended acceleration: Eugenie Mielczarek, Kevin Haggerty, Rhonda Smith, Robert Tevis, Richard Zappa, and Francis Visconi. Thomas Menzies, Alan Crane, Jon Eisenberg, and James Zucchetto were the principal project staff. Menzies managed the study and drafted the report under the guidance of the committee and the supervision of Stephen R. Godwin, Director, Studies and Special Programs, Transporta- tion Research Board (TRB). Norman Solomon edited the report; Janet M. McNaughton handled the editorial production; Juanita Green managed the book design, production, and printing; and Jennifer J. Weeks pre- pared the final manuscript files for prepublication release and web post- ing, under the supervision of Javy Awan, Director of Publications, TRB. Mark Hutchins provided extensive support to the committee in arranging its many meetings and in managing documents. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectiv- ity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review com- ments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. NRC thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: A. Harvey Bell IV, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor; Jeffrey Caird, Uni- versity of Calgary, Alberta, Canada; William H. DuMouchel, Oracle Health

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xviii || Preface Sciences, Tucson, Arizona; Robert A. Frosch, Harvard University, Cam- bridge, Massachusetts; Brian T. Murray, United Technologies Research Center, East Hartford, Connecticut; Clinton V. Oster, Bloomington, Indi- ana; R. David Pittle, Alexandria, Virginia; William F. Powers, Boca Raton, Florida; Bernard I. Robertson, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan; L. Robert Shelton III, New Smyrna Beach, Florida; and Peter J. Weinberger, Google, Inc., New York. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence T. Papay, PQR, LLC, La Jolla, California; and C. Michael Walton, University of Texas, Austin. Appointed by NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of the report rests solely with the authoring commit- tee and the institution. Suzanne Schneider, Associate Executive Director, TRB, managed the report review process. —Louis J. Lanzerotti, Chair Committee on Electronic Vehicle Controls and Unintended Acceleration REFERENCES Abbreviation NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA. 2011. Technical Assessment of Toyota Electronic Throttle Control (ETC) Systems. http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/nvs/pdf/NHTSA-UA_report.pdf. Reuters. 2011. U.S. Judge Denies Toyota Lawsuit Dismissal Attempt. April 29. http:// www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/29/toyota-ruling-idUSN2917985520110429.

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Contents Summary 1 1 Background and Charge 23 NHTSA’s Automotive Safety Role 27 Earlier NHTSA Initiatives on Unintended Acceleration 30 The Revolution in Automotive Electronics 35 Study Goals and Report Organization 37 2 The Electronics-Intensive Automobile 43 Use of Electronics in Vehicles Today 44 Next-Generation Systems 61 Safety Challenges 63 Chapter Findings 68 3 Safety Assurance Processes for Automotive Electronics 71 Safety Assurance Practices in the Automotive Industry 73 Industry Standards Activities for Electronics Safety Assurance 90 Chapter Findings 95 4 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Vehicle Safety Programs 99 Vehicle Safety Program Overview 102 Rulemaking 104 Enforcement and Defect Investigation 111 Vehicle Safety Research 118

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Strategic and Priority Planning for Research and Rulemaking 122 Safety Assurance and Oversight in Other Industries 123 Chapter Findings 127 5 Review of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Initiatives on Unintended Acceleration 133 Past NHTSA Initiatives on Unintended Acceleration 136 Investigations of Toyota Complaints 141 Recent NHTSA Initiatives on Unintended Acceleration 151 Chapter Findings 163 6 Recommendations to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Preparing for the Electronics-Intensive Vehicle 169 NHTSA’s Current Role with Respect to Vehicle Electronics 170 Keeping Pace with the Safety Assurance Challenges Arising from Vehicle Electronics 176 Strengthening Capabilities for Defect Surveillance and Investigation 182 Reaction to NHTSA’s Proposed Next Steps 185 Strategic Planning to Guide Future Decisions and Priorities 188 Study Committee Biographical Information 197