Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model
for Cancer Risk to Astronauts
Due to Space Radiation

Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model

Space Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
               OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by Contract NNH10CC48B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25305-5 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25305-5 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, shar- ing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and rec - ognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad com - munity of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the gov - ernment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD Assessment of Impediments to Interagency Collaboration on Space and Earth Science Missions (Space Studies Board [SSB], 2011) Panel Reports—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA] and SSB, 2011) Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (SSB, 2011) Report of the Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA and SSB, 2011) Sharing the Adventure with the Public—The Value and Excitement of “Grand Questions” of Space Science and Exploration: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2011) Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 (SSB, 2011) Capabilities for the Future: An Assessment of NASA Laboratories for Basic Research (Laboratory Assessments Board with SSB and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2010) Controlling Cost Growth of NASA Earth and Space Science Missions (SSB, 2010) Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Final Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010) An Enabling Foundation for NASA’s Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2010) Forging the Future of Space Science: The Next 50 Years (SSB, 2010) Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era of Space Exploration: An Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010) New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2010) Revitalizing NASA’s Suborbital Program: Advancing Science, Driving Innovation, and Developing a Workforce (SSB, 2010) America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Mars Sample Return Missions (SSB, 2009) Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Heliophysics Program (SSB, 2009) Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring (SSB, 2008) Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Opening New Frontiers in Space: Choices for the Next New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity (SSB, 2008) Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2008) Space Science and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2008) Assessment of the NASA Astrobiology Institute (SSB, 2007) An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences [BLS], 2007) Building a Better NASA Workforce: Meeting the Workforce Needs for the National Vision for Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2007) Decadal Science Strategy Surveys: Report of a Workshop (SSB, 2007) Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (SSB, 2007) Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB with the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, 2007) Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Review (SSB, 2007) The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems (SSB with BLS, 2007) NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation (SSB with BPA, 2007) Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2007) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Astrophysics Program (SSB with BPA, 2007) Portals to the Universe: The NASA Astronomy Science Centers (SSB, 2007) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon (SSB, 2007) Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3477/ssb@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html iv

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COMMITTEE FOR EVALUATION OF SPACE RADIATION CANCER RISK MODEL R. JULIAN PRESTON, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Chair JOEL S. BEDFORD, Colorado State University AMY BERRINGTON de GONZALEZ, National Cancer Institute B. JOHN GARRICK, Garrick Consulting DUDLEY T. GOODHEAD, Medical Research Council, United Kingdom (Emeritus) BERNARD A. HARRIS, JR., Vesalius Ventures, Inc. KATHRYN D. HELD, Massachusetts General Hospital DAVID G. HOEL, Medical University of South Carolina JACK R. JOKIPII, University of Arizona, Lunar and Planetary Laboratory INSOO JUN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology CHARLES E. LAND, National Cancer Institute (retired) HANS-GEORG MENZEL, CERN (retired) PETER O’NEILL, University of Oxford Staff SANDRA J. GRAHAM, Senior Program Officer, Study Director CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor AMANDA R. THIBAULT, Research Associate RODNEY HOWARD, Senior Program Assistant MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Space Studies Board v

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair JOHN KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Vice Chair MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN, Dixie State College and Aerospace Corporation ALAN DRESSLER, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution JACK D. FELLOWS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research HEIDI B. HAMMEL, Space Science Institute FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, Naval War College ROBERT P. LIN, University of California, Berkeley MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future JOHN F. MUSTARD, Brown University ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State University MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University WARREN M. WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant vi

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Sally A. Amundson, Columbia University Medical Center, John D. Boice, Jr., International Epidemiology Institute Ltd., Leslie A. Braby, Texas A&M University, James E. Cleaver, University of California, San Francisco, Howard D. Ozer, University of Illinois Cancer Center, Jonathan M. Samet, University of Southern California, and Ronald E. Turner, Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER). Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John R. Ball, American Society for Clinical Pathology (retired). Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 9 General Cancer Risk Estimation Approach, 9 Evaluating the NASA Model, 10 Updating of the Current Model, 10 NASA’s Proposed Model, 11 Approach to the Committee’s Evaluation, 13 References, 13 2 REVIEW OF NASA MODEL 15 Introduction, 15 Space Radiation Environments and Transport Models, 15 Galactic Cosmic Rays, 16 Solar Particle Events, 19 Transport Model, 23 Final Comments, 24 Cancer Risk Projection Models, 24 Overview, 24 Cancer Mortality Risk Estimation, 25 Transfer from the Japanese to the U.S. Population, 26 Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor, 27 Risk Models for Never-Smokers, 27 Additional Minor Issues, 28 Uncertainties in Low Linear Energy Transfer Risk Model, 28 Overview, 28 Epidemiological Basis for Radiation-Related Cancer Risk Estimation, 28 Uncertainty-Related Bias, 29 Radiation Risk Protection, 29 ix

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x CONTENTS Dependence on Atomic Bomb Survivor Data, 29 Miscellaneous Comments, 30 Cancer Risks and Radiation Quality in the Model, 30 Overview, 30 Quality Factors for Leukemia and Solid Cancers, 32 Replacement of LET-Based Quality Factors with Track Structure-Based Quality Factors, 33 Risk Cross Sections and Quality Factors, 34 Non-Targeted Effects in the NASA Model, 35 Qualitative Differences Between Low-LET Radiation and Heavy-Ion Biological Effects, 35 Data or Research That Could Improve This Portion of NASA’s Proposed Model, 36 Integration and Completeness of the Model, 36 Background, 36 Model Completeness, Improvements, and Recommendations, 39 References, 48 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 55 B Committee and Staff Biographical Information 57 C Glossary and Acronyms 63