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Panel on Redesigning the Commercial Buildings and Residential Energy Consumption Surveys of the Energy Information Administration William F. Eddy and Krisztina Marton, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by contract number DE-DT 0000670 T.O. #30 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Support for the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (award number SES-0453930). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25401-4 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25401-9 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334- 3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2012). Effective Tracking of Building Energy Use: Improving the Commercial Buildings and Residential Energy Consumption Surveys. Panel on Redesigning the Commercial Buildings and Residential Energy Con- sumption Surveys of the Energy Information Administration. W.F. Eddy and K. Marton, Eds. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, and Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to iden- tify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Na- tional Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org
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PANEL ON REDESIGNING THE COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS AND RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURVEYS OF THE ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair), Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University MARILYN A. BROWN, School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology FREDERICK CONRAD, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan DONALD A. DILLMAN, Social and Economic Sciences Research Center, Washington State University DWIGHT K. FRENCH, Energy Consumption Division, Energy Information Administration (retired), Silver Spring, Maryland JACK G. GAMBINO, Household Survey Methods Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa CLARK W. GELLINGS, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California JANE F. GENTLEMAN, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, Maryland DAVID G. HUNGERFORD, California Energy Commission, Sacramento PHILLIP S. KOTT,* RTI International, Rockville, Maryland NINA S.-N. LAM, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University ALAN K. MEIER, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California MICHAEL M. MEYER, Google, Seattle, Washington MAXINE L. SAVITZ,** Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California KRISZTINA MARTON, Study Director MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Program Officer NANCY J. KIRKENDALL, Senior Program Officer AGNES GASKIN, Administrative Assistant *Resigned from the panel on August 27, 2010. **Joined the panel on July 1, 2010. v
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2010–2012 LAWRENCE D. BROWN (Chair), Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania JOHN M. ABOWD, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University ALICIA CARRIQUIRY, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University WILLIAM DuMOUCHEL, Oracle Health Sciences, Tucson, AZ V. JOSEPH HOTZ, Department of Economics, Duke University MICHAEL HOUT, Survey Research Center, University of California, Berkeley KAREN KAFADAR, Department of Statistics, Indiana University SALLIE KELLER, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Institute for Defense Analyses, Washington, DC LISA LYNCH, The Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University SALLY C. MORTON, Department of Biostatistics, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh JOSEPH P. NEWHOUSE, Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University RUTH PETERSON, Criminal Justice Research Center, Ohio State University HAL S. STERN, Donald Bren School of Computer and Information Sciences, University of California, Irvine JOHN H. THOMPSON, National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago ROGER TOURANGEAU, Westat, Rockville, MD ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard University Medical School CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director vi
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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS 2010–2011 ANDREW BROWN, JR. (Chair), Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan RAKESH AGRAWAL, Department of Chemical Engineering, Purdue University WILLIAM BANHOLZER, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan MARILYN A. BROWN, School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology MICHAEL CORRADINI, Department of Engineering Physics, University of Wisconsin–Madison PAUL A. DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, Department of Petroleum Engineering, Texas A&M University SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN HINGORANI, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Department of Environmental Sciences, College of William and Mary DEBBIE A. NIEMEIER, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis DANIEL NOCERA, Department of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Departments of Geosciences and International Affairs, Princeton University DAN REICHER, Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance, Stanford University BERNARD ROBERTSON, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK H. THIEMENS, Division of Physical Sciences, University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York, New York JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director vii
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Acknowledgments We wish to thank everyone who contributed their time and ex- pertise to assist the work of the Panel on Redesigning the Commercial Buildings and Residential Energy Consumption Surveys of the Energy Information Administration. These generous contributions made this report possible. We would like to thank the sponsor of the study, the U.S. En- ergy Information Administration (EIA)—under the leadership of then administrator Richard Newell and acting administrator Howard Gruenspecht—for the support provided as the panel reviewed back- ground materials and information about the challenges faced by the Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) and the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). Communication between the panel and EIA was greatly facilitated by technical liaisons Stephanie Battles, Stephanie Brown, and later Thomas Leckey. A num- ber of EIA staff made very informative presentations and provided useful materials that helped the panel become thoroughly familiar with the surveys. We would especially like to thank James Berry, Eugene Burns, Joelle Michaels, and Eileen O’Brien for their assistance. Lynda Carlson of the National Science Foundation (retired) and former head of the Energy End Use Division within EIA provided valu- able background information about the evolution of the CBECS and RECS during the first two decades of the surveys’ existence. EIA’s data collection contractors were very helpful in getting the panel up to speed on details related to recent sample designs and data collection opera- tions. We would like to thank Rachel Harter and Susan Hinkins from ix
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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS the National Opinion Research Center and David Judkins from Westat for their presentations to the panel. Staff from other statistical agencies also took time from their busy schedules to share their experiences with similar data collections and discuss with the panel the challenges faced by the CBECS and RECS. We thank Mark Miller from the National Agricultural Statistics Service and David Vandenbroucke from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development for their input. The panel also greatly benefited from learning about the experiences of researchers who collect energy consumption data in other countries. We are indebted to Sylvie Gauthier from Statistics Canada, Shane Holt from the Australian Department of the Environment, and Shigeki Kametani from Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology. A fundamental aspect of the panel’s work was to obtain a thorough understanding of data user needs. We thank all CBECS and RECS data users who directly or indirectly provided input to the panel. This report greatly benefited from their candid contributions. We also greatly appre- ciated the in-person presentations delivered by Jennifer Amann from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Erin Boedecker from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Miriam Goldberg from KEMA, Piljae Im from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Elicia John from Energy Star, Richard Levy from the National Multi Housing Council, Leon Litow from the U.S. Department of Health and Hu- man Services, Joe Loper from ITRON, Paul Mathew from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Harvey Sachs from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Marla Sanchez from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Anant Sudarshan from Stanford Univer- sity, and Michael Zatz from Energy Star. We would also like to thank the National Research Council (NRC) staff who contributed to this study. In particular, the panel could not have done its work in such a thorough and thoughtful manner without the skills of Krisztina Marton, who served as the panel’s study director. We are also grateful for the guidance and support received from Constance Citro, director of the Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT), for the input provided by CNSTAT senior program officers Michael Cohen and Nancy Kirkendall, and for the contributions to the study of James Zucchetto, director of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems. Robert Pool provided editorial help with the report, and Kirsten Sampson Snyder shepherded the report through the review process. Ad- ministrative assistance was provided by Agnes Gaskin.
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xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional stan- dards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to pro- tect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the fol- lowing individuals for their review of this report: Paul A. DeCotis, Power Markets, Long Island Power Authority; Miriam L. Goldberg, Sustain- able Use, KEMA Inc.; Andy Kohut, Manufacturing and Energy Divi- sion, Statistics Canada; Nancy L. Leach, consultant; H. Scott Matthews, Green Design Institute, Carnegie Mellon University; Stephen M. Miller, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor; Steven Nadal, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy; and Sarah Nusser, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc- tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth Drake, Energy Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Tech- nology (retired), and Joel Horowitz, Department of Economics, North- western University. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was car- ried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution. Finally, we recognize the many federal agencies that support CNSTAT directly and through a grant from the National Science Foun- dation. Without their support and their commitment to improving the national statistical system, the committee work that is the basis of this report would not have been possible. William F. Eddy, Chair Panel on Redesigning the Commercial Buildings and Residential Energy Consumption Surveys of the Energy Information Administration
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Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction 11 2 Historical Background 23 3 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey Program History and Design 27 4 Residential Energy Consumption Survey Program History and Design 35 5 Redesigning the Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey 39 6 Redesigning the Residential Energy Consumption Survey 73 7 A State-of-the-Art Energy Consumption Data Collection Program 87 References 93 xiii
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xiv CONTENTS Appendixes A Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (P.L. 110-140) 97 B Data Users Who Provided Input to the Panel 99 C U.S. Census Regions and Divisions 101 D U.S. Climate Zones for the 2003 CBECS 103 E Composite Estimation 105 F Letter Report 107 G Glossary 123 H Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff 125