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• #### Probability and Statistical Physics / Connecting Microscopic and Macroscopic 53-58

way. And it may be the best technique for extracting information out of very large and heterogeneous databases.

For example, in medical applications, classical statistics treats all patients as if they were the same at some level. In fact, classical statistics is fundamentally based on the notion of repetition; if one cannot embed the situation in a series of like events, classical statistics cannot be applied. Bayesian statistics, on the other hand, can better deal with uniqueness and can use information about the whole population to make inferences about individuals. In an era of individualized medicine, Bayesian analysis may become the tool of choice.

Bayesian and classical statistics begin with different answers to the philosophical question “What is probability?” To a classical statistician, a probability is a frequency. To say that the probability of a coin landing heads up is 50 percent means that in many tosses of the coin, it will come up heads about half the time.

By contrast, a Bayesian views probability as a degree of belief. Thus, if you say that football team A has a 75 percent chance of beating football team B, you are expressing your degree of belief in that outcome. The football game will certainly not be played many times, so your statement makes no sense from the frequency perspective. But to a Bayesian, it makes perfect sense; it means that you are willing to give 3-1 odds in a bet on team A.

The key ingredient in Bayesian statistics is Bayes’s rule (named after the Reverend Thomas Bayes, whose monograph on the subject was published posthumously in 1763). It is a simple formula that tells you how to assess new evidence. You start with a prior degree of belief in a hypothesis, which may be expressed as an odds ratio. Then you perform an experiment, or a number of them, which gives you new data. In the light of those data, your hypothesis may become either more or less likely. The change in odds is objective and quantifiable. Bayes’s rule yields a likelihood ratio or “Bayes factor,” which is multiplied by your prior odds (or degree of belief) to give you the new, posterior odds (see Figure 7 on page 22).

Classical statistics is good at providing answers to questions like this: If a certain drug is no better than a placebo, what is the probability that it will cure 10 percent more patients in a clinical trial just due to chance variation? Bayesian statistics answers the inverse question: If the drug cures 10 percent more patients in a clinical trial, what is the probability that it is better than a placebo?

Usually it is the latter probability that people really want to know. Yet classical statistics provides something called a p-value or a statistical significance level, neither of which is actually the probability that the drug is effective. Both of them relate to this probability only indirectly. In Bayesian statistics, however, you can directly compute the odds that the drug is better than a placebo.

So why did Bayesian analysis not become the norm? The main philosophical reason is that Bayes’s rule requires as input a prior degree of belief in the hypothesis you are testing, before you conduct any experiments.

The main philosophical reason is that Bayes’s rule requires as input a prior degree of belief in the hypothesis you are testing, before you conduct any experiments.

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