Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint (2012)

Measure

Formulation

1. Population Size (N)

For year i = 1:

N_ij = age – specific population size

For year i > 1:

N_ij = N_i-1,j-1 – DW_i-1,j-1 – CP_i-1,j-1

2. Target Population (T)

No Vaccine:

T_ij = N_ij × Proportion Target_ij where Proportion Target_ij = 0

Vaccine Steady State for year i = 1:

T_ij = N_ij × Proportion Target_ij where Proportion Target_ij = 1

Vaccine Introduced:

T_ij = N_ij × Proportion Target_ij with Proportion Target_ij = Input (% of N)_ij

3. Vaccinated Immune (V)

V_ij = T_ij × coverage rate_ij × effectiveness_ij

4. Vaccinated Susceptible (VS)

VS_ij = T_ij × coverage rate_ij × (1 – effectiveness_ij)

5. Not Vaccinated Immune (B)

B_ij = (V_ij / herd immunity_ij) – V_ij

6. Not Vaccinated Susceptible (BS)

BS_ij = N_ij – V_ij – VS_ij – B_ij

7. Total Cases (C)

C_ij = (VS_ij + BS_ij) × incidence rate

8. Deaths by Disease (D)

D_ij = C_ij × case fatality rate

Measure

Formulation

9. Cases: Impairment (CP)

CP_ij = (C_ij – D_ij) × proportion cases impaired

10. Cases: Morbidity (CM)

CM_ij = C_ij – D_ij – CP_ij

11. Vaccine Complications (A)

A_ij = (V_ij + VS_ij) × vaccine complications rate

12. All Cause Deaths (DA) Including Disease

No Vaccine:

DA_ij = N_ij × all cause mortality rate

Vaccine Steady State:

DA_ij = (N_ij × all cause mortality rate) – Deaths averted by vaccine

* Deaths averted by vaccine = Vaccine Steady State D_ij – No Vaccine D_ij

Vaccine Introduced:

DA_ij = (N_ij × all cause mortality rate) – Deaths averted by vaccine

* Deaths averted by vaccine = Vaccine Introduced D_ij – No Vaccine D_ij

13. Cause Deleted Deaths (DE) Excluding Disease

DE_ij = DA_ij – D_ij

1. Premature Deaths Averted per Year

2. Incident Cases Prevented per Year

3. Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) Gained

4. Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) Gaineda^a

5. Net Direct Costs

6. Delivery Costs

7. Health Care Costs (HC) Averted

8. Workforce Productivity (WP) Gained per Year

9. One-Time Costs

Cost Research + Cost Licensure + Cost Start Up

Measure

Formulation

All Cause Mortality Rate (Derived by Life Table Over Interval)^a

QALYs_Death

QALYs_{Impairment by disease or complication}

QALYs_{Morbidity by disease or complication}

Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) Generalization^b

Years of Life Lost (YLL) + Years of Life Lived with Disability (YLD)

YLD or YLL (W = 1)

DALYs Variables

K = age weight modulation factor (0 = off, 1 = on)

F = constant (0.1658)

r = discount rate

j = age of death (YLL) or age of onset of disability (YLD)

G = parameter form the age weighting function (0.04)

L = standard expectation of life at age a (YLL) or duration of disability (YLD)

W = disability weight (YLD)

DALYs_Death

DALYs_{Impairment by disease or complication}

DALYs_{Morbidity by disease or complication}

Health Care Costs (HC)_Death

HC_{Impairments by disease or complication}

HC_{Morbidity by disease or complication}

Measure

Formulation

Workforce Productivity (WP) Gained Death_Death

WP_{Impairment by disease or complication}

WP_{Morbidity by disease or complication}