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Small Populations, Large Effects
Improving the Measurement of the Group Quarters
Population in the American Community Survey
Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring the
Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey
Paul R. Voss and Krisztina Marton, Editors
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
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the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for
their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. YA132309CN0089 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Census Bureau. Support for the work of the Committee
on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from
the National Science Foundation (award number SES-0453930). Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25560-8
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Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2012). Small Populations, Large Effects:
Improving the Measurement of the Group Quarters Population in the American Community
Survey. Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the
American Community Survey, Paul R. Voss and Krisztina Marton, Editors. Committee on
National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington,
DC: The National Academies Press.
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PANEL ON STATISTICAL METHODS FOR
MEASURING THE GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION IN
THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY
PAUL R. VOSS (Chair), Carolina Population Center and Odum Institute for
Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
WILLIAM A.V. CLARK, Department of Geography, University of California,
Los Angeles
SUSAN COPELLA, Pennsylvania State Data Center, Pennsylvania State
University
DAVID DOLSON, Statistics Canada, Ottawa
RALPH FOLSOM, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina
RACHEL HARTER, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina (formerly with National Opinion Research Center, University of
Chicago)
STEVEN HEERINGA, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
JOSEPH SALVO, New York City Department of City Planning
RICHARD VALLIANT, Joint Program for Survey Methodology, University
of Maryland, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan
KRISZTINA MARTON, Study Director
AGNES E. GASKIN, Administrative Assistant
v
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2011-2012
LAWRENCE D. BROWN (Chair), Department of Statistics, The Wharton
School, University of Pennsylvania
JOHN M. ABOWD, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell
University
ALICIA CARRIQUIRY, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
WILLIAM DuMOUCHEL, Oracle Health Sciences, Waltham, Massachusetts
V. JOSEPH HOTZ, Department of Economics, Duke University
MICHAEL HOUT, Survey Research Center, University of California,
Berkeley
KAREN KAFADAR, Department of Statistics, Indiana University
SALLIE KELLER, Provost, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
LISA LYNCH, Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis
University
SALLY C. MORTON, Department of Biostatistics, University of Pittsburgh
JOSEPH NEWHOUSE, Division of Health Policy Research and Education,
Harvard University
RUTH D. PETERSON, Department of Sociology (emeritus), The Ohio State
University
HAL S. STERN, Donald Bren School of Computer and Information
Sciences, University of California, Irvine
JOHN H. THOMPSON, National Opinion Research Center, University of
Chicago
ROGER TOURANGEAU, Westat, Rockville, MD
ALAN ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard University
Medical School
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director
vi
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Acknowledgments
The Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring the Group Quarters
Population in the American Community Survey (ACS) of the Committee on
National Statistics (CNSTAT) is pleased to submit this final report. The col-
lection of data from the relatively small number of individuals living in group
quarters (GQ) facilities has always been more challenging than collecting data
from those living in housing units. However, since a group quarters sample was
added to the ACS for the first time in 2006, there remain a number of sam-
pling and statistical issues yet to be satisfactorily worked out. Examining these
issues and making recommendations to the Census Bureau’s ACS Office was
the charge of our panel. The Census Bureau was conducting its own research
on these issues in parallel with the panel’s work, and as a result, the panel was
receiving new updates and data to consider in its deliberations throughout the
course of the study.
The ACS staff of the Census Bureau and the staff in the Population
Estimates Program of the Census Bureau’s Population Division were gener-
ous with their time throughout our work and responded to panel questions
and requests for information with good humor and alacrity. Communication
between the panel and the Census Bureau was greatly facilitated by lead
technical liaison, Alfredo Navarro, who was a pleasure to work with. Philip
Gbur served as contracting officer, and he was always accessible. Many Census
Bureau staff members made informative presentations to the panel, including
Mark Asiala, Michael Beaghen, Scott Boggess, Edward Castro, Annetta Smith
Clark, Sandy Clark, Chandra Erdman, Steven Hefter, Todd Hughes, Susan
Schechter, Amy Symens Smith, Sharon Stern, Victoria Velkoff, Lynn Weidman,
vii
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viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Daniel Weinberg, and David Whitford. These are all busy people, and their
contributions to the work of the panel are greatly appreciated.
The panel also sought input on data collected about major segments of the
GQ population from experts in other agencies in the federal statistical system.
In particular, William Sabol from the Bureau of Justice Statistics presented a
valuable overview of that agency’s portfolio of data series on the correctional
population. We also benefited from a discussion with Lauren Harris-Kojetin
from the National Center for Health Statistics about data collections from health
care facilities.
To assess the importance of GQ data from the ACS, the panel reached out
to the data user community, and we are grateful to everyone who provided input.
As part of this outreach effort, the panel sponsored a one-day data user meet-
ing in Washington, DC, in December 2010. This well-attended meeting proved
crucial in demonstrating the importance of these data for many users. We thank
those individuals who gave their time to assist the panel at this meeting; the list
of participants appears in Appendix A. The panel also engaged two teams of
consultants to assist in understanding how data on GQ populations are used
in the wide variety of program administration, eligibility determination, and
funding at the federal, state and local levels of government. For helpful data
gathering and insights in this regard, we express our appreciation to Cynthia
M. Taeuber of CM Taueber & Associates, Rachel Blanchard Carpenter, survey
specialist with the National Opinion Research Center, and Robert Scardamalia
of RLS Demographics, Inc.
We also express our appreciation to Colm O’Muircheartaigh, at the National
Opinion Research Center at the Univrersity of Chicago, for his special insights
regarding surveying and data reporting on those who live in GQ facilities. We
thank Joel Alvarez and Adam Attar from the New York City Department of
City Planning and Melissa Stringfellow from the University of Maryland for
their valuable assistance with analysis and visual presentation of the ACS and
census data.
At our first meeting in March 2010, the panel formed two working groups
on statistical issues and data user considerations to pursue specific tasks between
meetings, and the work of the subgroups and of the panel as a whole proceeded
with few disagreements, as well as a keen sense of remaining within the bound -
aries of our charge from the Census Bureau. As chair of the panel, I want to
express my deep appreciation to each of the panelists for providing insightful
input from their respective areas of expertise.
We could not have accomplished our mission without the steady guidance,
keen attention to detail, and excellent writing talents of our study director,
Krisztina Marton. In addition, we had the strong support of other CNSTAT
staff. We extend our appreciation to Constance Citro, CNSTAT director, for her
always deeply knowledgeable guidance when questions of procedure arose or
when advice was requested. We thank CNSTAT senior program officer Michael
Cohen for taking time to attend the panel’s meetings and providing occasional
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ix
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
counsel. We are especially grateful to CNSTAT senior program officer Daniel
Cork and associate program officer Esha Sinha for their input and help with
data analysis. We thank Kirsten Sampson Snyder for her expert oversight of the
report review process, Christine McShane for skilled technical editing of the
draft report, and Agnes Gaskin for handling so capably the variety of logistical
matters relating to our meetings.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures
approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council
(NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and criti-
cal comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as
sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards
for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review
comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of
the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their
review of this report: Warren Brown, Cornell Institute for Social and Economic
Research, Cornell University; Alicia Carriquiry, Department of Statistics, Iowa
State University; John Czajka, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.; Charlene
Harrington, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco; Ken
Hodges, Nielsen; David Hubble, Westat, Inc.; Colm O’Muircheartaigh, Harris
School, University of Chicago; David Plane, School of Geography and Devel -
opment, University of Arizona; and Bruce Spencer, Department of Statistics,
Northwestern University.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com -
ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or rec -
ommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release.
The review of this report was overseen by Richard Kulka, consultant, Statistical
Survey and Social Research, and Charles Manski, Department of Economics,
Northwestern University. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for
making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out
in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were
carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests
entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.
Finally, we recognize the many federal agencies that support the Committee
on National Statistics directly and through a grant from the National Science
Foundation. Without their support and their commitment to improving the
national statistical system, the committee work that is the basis of this report
would not have been possible.
Paul R. Voss, Chair
Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring
the Group Quarters Population
in the American Community Survey
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Contents
Summary 1
1 Introduction 11
2 The Group Quarters Population and the American
Community Survey 19
3 American Community Survey Data Products, Data Uses,
and Data Needs 33
4 Sampling Frame Development and Maintenance 45
5 Sample Allocation and Selection 63
6 Weighting and Estimation 71
References 95
Appendixes
A Participants in the Panel’s Meeting with Data Users
December 13, 2010 99
B 2011 American Community Survey: Housing Unit Questionnaire 101
C 2011 American Community Survey: Group Quarters Questionnaire 117
D 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Data
Tables That Highlight the Group Quarters Population in Virginia 125
E 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Data
Tables That Highlight the Group Quarters Population in
Goochland County, Virginia 135
xi
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xii CONTENTS
F The 10 Largest Federal Assistance Programs That Relied on
ACS Total Population Estimates, Fiscal Year 2008 139
G The 10 Largest Federal Assistance Programs with Funds Sent
Directly to Substate Areas Based on ACS Total Population
Estimates, Fiscal Year 2008 141
H Plots of Relative Differences, ACS Estimates from 2005-2009,
2007-2009, and 2009 with Expected Estimates of the Group
Quarters Population in U.S. States 143
I Plots of Relative Differences, 2005-2009 ACS Estimates and 2007
Expected Estimates of the Group Quarters Population in
Selected Counties by Region 147
J Plots of Relative Differences, 2005-2009 ACS Estimates and 2007
Expected Estimates of the Group Quarters Population in
Selected Areas with Populations Under 20,000 153
K Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff 159
