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Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future (2012)

Chapter: Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects." National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13389.
×

Appendix C

Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects

The effect of the Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctic sea-level fingerprints on relative sea level off the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington can be calculated by scaling the rate of rise from each source by the appropriate factor (colored contours) indicated in Figure 4.9 and adding the contributions:

img

where R is the ice loss rate in mm yr-1 or GT yr-1, k indicates the source of new water entering the ocean (Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica), p indicates the destination of the water (north coast, central coast, or south coast), and sk,p is the fingerprint scale factor (derived from Figure 4.9) for source k delivering water to destination p. Loss rates R for Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica, as reported in the literature, are given in Table C.1. The 1992–2009 period (1992–2008 for Alaska) was chosen because it was the longest and most nearly common period of availability of the largest number of records for all three regions. Averages were weighted according to the assessed reliability of the individual estimates.

The adjusted rate of sea-level rise is determined by multiplying the ice loss rate R for each of the three sources by the fingerprint scale factor s for each of the three regions along the coast, then summing (see equation). The result is given in Table C.2.

The effect of uncertainties in the ice loss rates on the adjusted rate of relative sea-level rise is shown in Table C.3. The mid-range estimate is the mean estimate, also given in the right column of Table C.2, and the low- and high-range estimates are plus and minus the uncertainties.

REFERENCES

Arendt, A.A., K.A. Echelmeyer, W.D. Harrison, C.S. Lingle, and V.B. Valentine, 2002, Rapid wastage of Alaska glaciers and their contribution to rising sea level, Science, 297, 382-386.

Baur, O., M. Kuhn, and W.E. Featherstone, 2009, GRACE-derived ice-mass variations over Greenland by accounting for leakage effects, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, B06407, doi:10.1029/2008JB006239.

Berthier, E., E. Schiefer, G.K.C. Clarke, B. Menounos, and F. Remy, 2010, Contribution of Alaskan glaciers to sea level rise derived from satellite imagery, Nature Geoscience, 3, 92-95.

Cazenave, A., K. Dominh, S. Guinehut, E. Berthier, W. Llovel, G. Ramillien, M. Ablain, and G. Larnicol, 2009, Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from GRACE space gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo, Global and Planetary Change, 65, 83-88.

Chen, J.L., C.R. Wilson, D. Blankenship, and B.D. Tapley, 2009, Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements, Nature Geoscience, 2, 859-862.

Chen, J.L., C.R. Wilson, and B.D. Tapley, 2011, Interannual variability of Greenland ice losses from satellite gravimetry, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, B07406, doi:10.1029/2010JB007789.

Cogley, J.G., 2012, The future of the world’s glaciers, in Future Climates of the World, 2nd edition, A. Henderson-Sellers and K. McGuffie, eds., Elsevier, Waltham, MA, pp. 197-222.

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects." National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13389.
×

TABLE C.1 Ice Mass Loss Rates, in Terms of Sea-Level Equivalent, Measured or Inferred for Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica

Source Period Ice Loss Rates (mm yr-1 SLE)
Alaska
Berthier et al. (2010) 1962–2006 -0.12 ± 0.02
Cogley (2012) 1990–2005 -0.09 ± 0.00
1995–2005 -0.08 ± 0.00
2000–2005 -0.15 ± 0.02
Dyurgerov (2010) 1992–2006 -0.20 ± 0.02
Arendt et al. (2002) 1992–2002 -0.27 ± 0.10
Tamisiea et al. (2005) 2002–2003 -0.31 ± 0.09
Luthcke et al. (2008) 2003–2007 -0.23 ± 0.01
Pritchard et al. (2010) 2003–2008 -0.18 ± 0.14
Greenland Ice Sheet
Wu et al. (2010) 2002–2009 -0.29 ± 0.06
Sørensen et al. (2011) 2004–2008 -0.58 ± 0.06
Schrama and Wouters (2011) 2003–2010 -0.56 ± 0.05
Cazenave et al. (2009) 2003–2008 -0.38 ± 0.05
Zwally et al. (2011) 1992–2002 -0.02 ± 0.01
2003–2007 -0.47 ± 0.01
Velicogna (2009) 2002–2009 -0.62 ± 0.09
Pritchard et al. (2010) 2004–2010 -0.54 ± 0.06
Baur et al. (2009) 2003–2009 -0.49 ± 0.03
Slobbe et al. (2009) 2003–2008 -0.59 ± 0.22
2003–2007 -0.38 ± 0.19
Rignot et al. (2011) 1992–2010 -0.43 ± 0.14
Chen et al. (2011) 2002–2005 -0.43 ± 0.10
2005–2010 -0.68 ± 0.10
Antarctic Ice Sheet
Wu et al. (2010) 2002–2009 -0.24 ± 0.12
Wingham et al. (2006) 1993–2003 0.07 ± 0.19
Velicogna (2009) 2002–2009 -0.40 ± 0.20
Chen et al. (2009) 2002–2006 -0.40 ± 0.16
2006–2009 -0.61 ± 0.25
Rignot et al. (2011) 1992–2010 -0.23 ± 0.25
Horwath and Dietrich (2009) 2002–2008 -0.30 ± 0.13
Moore and King (2008) 2002–2006 -0.45 ± 0.22
Cazenave et al. (2009) 2003–2008 -0.55 ± 0.06
Dong-Chen et al. (2009) 2003–2008 -0.22 ± 0.10
Shi et al. (2011) 2003–2008 -0.21 ± 0.01
Zwally et al. (2005) 1992–2001 -0.08 ± 0.14
Ivins et al. (2011) 2003–2009 -0.11 ± 0.02

 

TABLE C.2 Ice Loss Rates, Sea-Level Fingerprint Scale Factors, and Adjusted Rates of Sea-Level Rise for three U.S. West Coast Locations

Ice Loss Rate Alaska
0.16 mm yr-1 SLE
Greenland
0.35 mm yr-1 SLE
Antarctica
0.28 mm yr-1 SLE
Sum of Sources
0.79 mm yr-1 SLE
Area Scale
Factor
Adjusted
Sea-Level Rise
(mm yr-1)
Scale
Factor
Adjusted
Sea-Level Rise
(mm yr-1)
Scale
Factor
Adjusted
Sea-Level Rise
(mm yr-1)
Total Adjusted
Sea-Level Rise
(mm yr-1)
North coast -0.80 -0.13 0.75 0.26 1.17 0.33 0.46
Central coast -0.20 -0.03 0.87 0.30 1.17 0.33 0.60
South coast 0.20 0.03 0.92 0.32 1.17 0.33 0.68
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects." National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13389.
×

TABLE C.3 Adjusted Rates of Relative Sea-Level Rise for High, Medium, and Low Ice Loss Rates

Region Low-Range Estimate (mm yr-1) Mid-Range Estimate (mm yr-1) High-Range Estimate (mm yr-1)
North coast 0.07 0.46 0.86
Central coast 0.07 0.60 1.14
South coast 0.06 0.68 1.30

 

 

Ivins, E.R., M.M. Watkins, D.N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rulke, 2011, On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, B02403, doi:10.1029/2010JB007607.

Luthcke, S.B., A.A. Arendt, D.D. Rowlands, J.J. McCarthy, and C.F. Larsen, 2008, Recent glacier mass changes in the Gulf of Alaska region from GRACE mascon solutions, Journal of Glaciology, 54, 767-777.

Moore, P., and M.A. King, 2008, Antarctic ice mass balance estimates from GRACE: Tidal aliasing effects, Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, F02005, doi:10.1029/2007JF000871.

Pritchard, H.D., S.B. Luthcke, and A.H. Fleming, 2010, Understanding ice sheet mass balance: Progress in satellite altimetry and gravimetry, Journal of Glaciology, 56, 1151-1161.

Rignot, E., I. Velicogna, M.R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts, 2011, Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L05503, doi:10.1029/2011GL046583.

Schrama, E.J.O., and B. Wouters, 2011, Revisiting Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss observed by GRACE, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, B02407, doi:10.1029/2009JB006847.

Shi, H.L., Y. Lu, Z.L. Du, L.L. Jia, Z.Z. Zhang, and C.X. Zhou, 2011, Mass change detection in Antarctic Ice Sheet using ICESat block analysis techniques from 2003 similar to 2008, Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 54, 958-965.

Slobbe, D.C., P. Ditmar, and R.C. Lindenbergh, 2009, Estimating the rates of mass change, ice volume change and snow volume change in Greenland from ICESat and GRACE data, Geophysical Journal International, 176, 95-106.

Sørensen, L.S., S.B. Simonsen, K. Nielsen, P. Lucas-Picher, G. Spada, G. Adalgeirsdottir, R. Forsberg, and C.S. Hvidberg, 2011, Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (2003-2008) from ICESat data – the impact of interpolation, sampling and firn density, The Cryosphere, 5, 173-186.

Tamisiea, M.E., E.W. Leuliette, J.L. Davis, and J.X. Mitrovica, 2005, Constraining hydrological and cryospheric mass flux in southeastern Alaska using space-based gravity measurements, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20501, doi:10.1029:2005GL023961.

Velicogna, I., 2009, Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222.

Wingham, D.J., A. Shepherd, A. Muir, and G.J. Marshall, 2006, Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 364, 1627-1635.

Wu, X., M.B. Heflin, H. Schotman, B.L.A. Vermeersen, D. Dong, R.S. Gross, E.R. Ivins, A.W. Moore, and S.E. Owen, 2010, Simultaneous estimation of global present-day water transport and glacial isostatic adjustment, Nature Geoscience, 3, 642-646.

Zwally, H.J., M.B. Giovinetto, J. Li, H.G. Cornejo, M.A. Beckley, A.C. Brenner, J.L. Saba, and D. Yi, 2005, Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contributions to sea level rise: 1992-2002, Journal of Glaciology, 51, 509-527.

Zwally, H.J., L.I. Jun, A.C. Brenner, M. Beckley, H.G. Cornejo, J. Dimarzio, M.B. Giovinetto, T.A. Neumann, J. Robbins, J.L. Saba, Y.I. Donghui, and W. Wang, 2011, Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance: Distribution of increased mass loss with climate warming; 2003-07 versus 1992-2002, Journal of Glaciology, 57, 88-102.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects." National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13389.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects." National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13389.
×
Page 175
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects." National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13389.
×
Page 176
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects." National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13389.
×
Page 177
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects." National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13389.
×
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Tide gauges show that global sea level has risen about 7 inches during the 20th century, and recent satellite data show that the rate of sea-level rise is accelerating. As Earth warms, sea levels are rising mainly because ocean water expands as it warms; and water from melting glaciers and ice sheets is flowing into the ocean. Sea-level rise poses enormous risks to the valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands that line much of the 1,600 mile shoreline of California, Oregon, and Washington. As those states seek to incorporate projections of sea-level rise into coastal planning, they asked the National Research Council to make independent projections of sea-level rise along their coasts for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, taking into account regional factors that affect sea level.

Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future explains that sea level along the U.S. west coast is affected by a number of factors. These include: climate patterns such as the El Nino, effects from the melting of modern and ancient ice sheets, and geologic processes, such as plate tectonics. Regional projections for California, Oregon, and Washington show a sharp distinction at Cape Mendocino in northern California. South of that point, sea-level rise is expected to be very close to global projections. However, projections are lower north of Cape Mendocino because the land is being pushed upward as the ocean plate moves under the continental plate along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. However, an earthquake magnitude 8 or larger, which occurs in the region every few hundred to 1,000 years, would cause the land to drop and sea level to suddenly rise.

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