TABLE 5.2 Committee’s Global Sea-Level Rise Projections (in cm) Relative to Year 2000

2030 2050 2100
Term Projection Range Projection Range Projection Range
Sterica 5.4 ± 1.6 1.7–11.0
(B1–A1FI)
9.9 ± 2.4 4.0–18.9
(B1–A1FI)
24.2 ± 5.9 9.6–46.2
(B1–A1FI)
Glaciers and ice capsb 2.9 ± 0.1 2.7–3.6 5.5 ± 0.2 5.1–7.3 14.3 ± 0.7 12.9–19.4
Greenlandb 2.3 ± 0.2 1.8–4.0 5.6 ± 0.7 4.3–10.2 20.1 ± 2.7 14.8–33.8
Antarcticab 2.9 ± 0.7 1.5–5.1 7.0 ± 2.1 3.0–13.3 24.0 ± 8.3 7.7–46.2
Total Cryosphereb 8.1 ± 0.8 6.6–12.2 18.0 ± 2.2 13.7–29.4 58.4 ± 8.8 40.9–94.1
Sumc 13.5 ± 1.8 8.3–23.2 28.0 ± 3.2 17.6–48.2 82.7 ± 10.6 50.4–140.2
Semi-empiricald 18 14–22
(Bl-AlFI)
37 28–47
(B1-A1F1)
121 78–175 (Bl-AlFI)

a For the steric contribution, the projection is for scenario A1B from Pardaens et al. (2010), ±1 standard deviation computed for 20-year windows across models, and the range was determined by scaling the A1B projections for 2100 to the low value of B1 and the high value of A1FI for A1B, from Table 5.1.

b The cryospheric projection is an extrapolation from observed changes, ±1 standard deviation. The range column includes an additional dynamic contribution, described in Appendix E, which is used only for the high-end estimates.

c The low value of the range for each year (2030, 2050, 2100) was computed by subtracting twice the standard deviation from the mean in the projection column, and adjusting to the difference between A1B and B1. The high value of the range was computed by adding twice the standard deviation to the mean, adjusting to the difference between A1FI and A1B, and adding the dynamical imbalance contribution.

d Data from Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).

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FIGURE 5.3 Combined static and wind-driven sea-level changes (1980-1999 to 2080-2099,units in m) for the indicated models, relative to each model’s global mean. The overlying contour lines are of the sea-level distribution in the baselne control simulations, averaged over a 120-year period (contours are every 0.2m).SOURCE: Pardaens et al. (2010).



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