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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This project was supported by the Department of Energy under Contracts DE-AT01-07NA78285 and DE-DT0001857, Task Order 9, and by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Contract FA9550-10-1-0435. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

Cover image credit: The galaxy image at the bottom is of white dwarf stars in globular cluster NGC 6397—Hubble Space Telescope. Courtesy of NASA, ESA, and H. Riches, University of British Columbia.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25634-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25634-8

Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Suggested citation: National Research Council. 2012. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models: Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.

Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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