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OCR for page 72
B
Programmatic Decision Strategies and Rules
from the Earth Science and Applications
from Space 2007 Decadal Survey
The 2007 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey recognized that there are many
risks and uncertainties in developing a suite of space missions, and it offered a number of programmatic
guidelines and rules for guiding NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to
minimize these risks and protect the entire balanced program.1 The rules outlined below largely duplicate
those presented in the 2007 survey.
Leverage International Efforts
• Restructure or defer missions if international partners select missions that meet most of the measure-
ment objectives of the recommended missions; then (1) through dialogue establish data-access agree-
ments, and (2) establish science teams to use the data in support of the science and societal objectives.
• Where appropriate, offer cost-effective additions to international missions that help extend the values of
those missions. These actions should yield significant information in the identified areas at substantially
less cost to the partners.
Manage Technology Risk
• Sequence missions according to technological readiness and budget risk factors. The budget risk con-
sideration may favor initiating lower-cost missions first. However, technology investments should be
made across all recommended missions.
• Reduce cost risk on recommended missions by investing early in the technological challenges of the
missions. If there are insufficient funds to execute the missions in the recommended time frames, it is
still important to make advances on the key technological hurdles.
• Establish technology readiness through documented technology demonstrations before a mission’s
development phase, and certainly before mission confirmation.
National Research Council, Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond,
1
The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., Box 3.4.
72
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APPENDIX B 73
Respond to Budget Pressures and Shortfalls
• Delay downstream missions in the event of small (~10 percent) cost growth in mission development.
Protect the overarching observational program by canceling missions that substantially overrun.
• Implement a system-wide independent review process that permits decisions regarding technical capa-
bilities, cost, and schedule to be made in the context of the overarching science objectives. Program-
matic decisions on potential delays or reductions in the capabilities of a particular mission could then
be evaluated in light of the overall mission set and integrated requirements.
• Maintain a broad research program under significantly reduced agency funds by accepting greater
mission risk rather than descoping missions and science requirements. Aggressively seek international
and commercial partners to share mission costs. If necessary, eliminate specific missions related to a
theme rather than whole themes.
• In the event of large budget shortfalls, re-evaluate the entire set of missions in light of an assessment
of the current state of international global Earth observations, plans, needs, and opportunities. Seek
advice from the broad community of Earth scientists and users and modify the long-term strategy (rather
than dealing with one mission at a time). Maintain narrow, focused operational and sustained research
programs rather than attempting to expand capabilities by accepting greater risk. Limit thematic scope
and confine instrument capabilities to those well demonstrated by previous research instruments.
