erinarians currently employed in these sectors. As a result, 3,314 of new graduates who pursued advanced training should be employed in companion-animal private practice in 2016.

The second calculation involves applying the rates at which companion-animal practitioners in different types of practice (companion-animal-exclusive, mixed, etc.) work full- and half-time, which is assumed to follow the current trends discussed earlier. Companion-animal specialists in private practice were presumed to follow the same percentage of full-time vs. part-time as companion-animal-exclusive veterinarians; that is, 19.4% working half-time.

Finally, the computation of FTE must consider the percentage of time spent on companion animals by graduates in each practice type, which was applied according to current trends. Companion-animal specialists are assumed to devote 100% of their efforts towards companion animals.

The total additional companion-animal DVM FTEs resulting from new graduates in the classes of 2008-2016, as estimated by the committee, is outlined in Table 2-6. The committee predicts that 13,116 new DVM FTEs will be added to companion-animal workforce by 2016.

Estimated Total 2016 Supply versus Demand

Based on the committee’s calculations, the projected total supply of companion-animal DVM FTEs in 2016 is 51,445, comprised of 38,329 currently working veterinarian FTEs, and 13,116 FTE graduates of accredited schools between 2008 and 2016. As noted earlier, based on differing levels of efficiency of private practices (see Table 2-2), the committee predicted that the number of veterinarians needed to service an estimated 207.8 million pet visits in 2016 might range between 50,805 and 65, 950 DVM FTEs. Comparing the committee’s estimates of supply versus need, it appears that the expected outcome would be either a surplus of 640 or a shortage of 14,505 FTEs. If one assumes that practices will become more efficient in seeing pets (using an average efficiency of approximately 80 visits per companion-animal DVM FTE per week with a 46 week work-year), the result is a need for fewer (56,452 FTEs) veterinarians, but still a shortage of 5,007 FTEs. If the percentage of veterinarians providing companion-animal services working part-time continues at current levels, for all the companion-animal FTEs needed in 2016, approximately 10% more veterinarians will be needed in the workforce, or 5,508 more veterinarians than the anticipated supply.

MEETING FUTURE WORKFORCE DEMANDS

If the demand for companion-animal veterinary services follows the trajectory observed in the past, the committee predicts that the number of veterinarians available in 2016 will be insufficient to provide those services, at least



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement