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4
Evaluation of Accident Event Modeling
The first step in quantitative risk assessment, as described in the up-
dated site-specific risk assessment (uSSRA), is a description and analysis of
the circumstances (accident events) that could lead to release of foot-and-
mouth disease virus (FMDv) from the proposed National Bio- and Agro-
Defense Facility (NBAF). The purpose of this step is to develop estimates of
four critical inputs for the ultimate characterization of site-specific risk. The
analysis focuses on the probability and frequency of pathogen release given
particular circumstances related to loss of containment and on the amount
of pathogen likely to be released. Questions related to the probability that
a given release would result in infection and the consequences of such an
infection are left to later sections of the uSSRA; the ultimate characteriza-
tion of FMDv-related risk is presented in Section 8 of the uSSRA.
OVERVIEW OF METHODS FOR ACCIDENT EVENT MODELING
Section 4 of the uSSRA begins with a description and analysis of the
pathways that could lead to pathogen release from each of three originating
locations within containment and from non-containment areas outside the
laboratories. The uSSRA created conceptual models of release pathways
and provided estimates of the total amount of material available for release
(MAR) from each originating location.
Accident sequences culminate in an event (defined as loss of contain-
ment in the uSSRA) that may or may not result in an infection outside
the facility. As previously mentioned in Chapter 3, event trees (which are
incorrectly called fault trees in the uSSRA) are used to describe the set of
37
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38 NBAF UPDATED SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT
circumstances leading to release of material. Each node of the event tree
(Figure 4.5-1 of the uSSRA) indicates a point in the sequence of events
at which a release mitigation system (including human action) either suc-
ceeds or fails. “Success” means that the system functions as expected, not
that it is 100% effective. An event tree is developed for each originating
location and for each of four possible mechanisms, called pathways, by
which pathogens could be released (aerosol, liquid waste, solid waste, and
transference). This is accompanied by a table that provides the following
for each node of the event tree: failure probabilities and “reduction factors”
that are to be applied to the MAR, one reduction factor that is assigned
when the mitigation system at each event tree node fails, and another when
it is fully functional.
The reliability of the ultimate risk estimates presented in Section 8
depends heavily upon the adequacy of the analyses and results from the
accident event modeling of Section 4.
COMMENTARY
The method applied in Section 4 is a distinct improvement over that
applied in the 2010 SSRA. The use of event tree analysis and probabilistic
modeling is preferable to the scenario-based, semi-quantitative approach of
the earlier assessment, and is consistent with current risk assessment science
for facilities like the NBAF. The adoption of International Organization for
Standardization (ISO) Standard 31000 terminology is also to be applauded,
although the committee notes some concerns about the misuse of terms.
The committee identified a few significant omissions in the conceptual
models used to describe containment and in the elucidation of system fail-
ures that could lead to a release (the system failures are summarized in the
24 circumstances presented in Table 4.3.1-1 of the uSSRA). The committee
finds that the development of the 142 events that could lead to an infectious
or non-infectious release is nearly complete and generally takes into account
mitigation systems, including human action, identified in the conceptual
models. However, critical issues remain that affect other aspects of the risk
assessment, and these are discussed below.
TERMINOLOGY
The uSSRA generally adheres to ISO 31000 terminology. As previ-
ously mentioned in Chapter 3, the committee finds that use of the term
Ploss is confusing, and the uSSRA should have adopted a different term.
The uSSRA would be less confusing if the “loss” subscript were dropped,
inasmuch as Ploss can be easily misread as the probability of loss of FMDv
when it carries no such meaning. The term refers to the probability that,
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EVALUATION OF ACCIDENT EVENT MODELING
given a specific opportunity, a particular pathway in the event tree will
allow release. It includes pathways in the event tree in which all mitigation
systems are assumed to be fully functional and pathways in which some
mitigation systems fail.
LOGIC ERRORS AND EVENT TREES
Apart from asking subject matter experts for their opinions, no expla-
nation was provided on how the uSSRA selected the 142 events (Appendix
Tables A8-1 and A8-2) that were the bases of the event trees. In designing
the event trees, several logical circumstances (as indicated by a node) were
omitted (i.e., out-of-containment leaks, power systems failures). Thus, the
committee is not confident in assuming that all the critical pathways for
escape were considered in the uSSRA.
DEVELOPMENT OF FAILURE PROBABILITIES
AND REDUCTION FACTORS
It is impossible in the time provided for this evaluation to review every
event tree and accompanying table in Section 4 and to comment on the ad-
equacy of the data and assumptions that are used to support all of the large
number of estimates of probabilities and reduction factors associated with
each of the many nodes of each event tree. Even with a sound method, the
reliability of the assessment remains completely dependent on the scientific
reliability of each of the hundreds of inputs used.
The committee selected a sampling of event trees and analyzed some
of the assumptions and data used to develop estimates for Q, Ploss, R0, and
Floss. For each node of at least three event trees, the committee examined
the probabilities of failure and success of the mitigation systems and the
resulting MAR reduction factors. Such analyses were conducted for events
associated with ATR (transference of virus to the respiratory tracts of work-
ers in biosafety level-3 [BSL-3] animal holding rooms), OTB (transference
to the body in non-containment areas), and AA (aerosol release from BSL-3
animal holding rooms), and for selected other events.
GENERAL FINDINGS ON DATA INPUTS
Although the uSSRA provided detailed analysis of various risks, the
use of questionable assumptions in the data inputs demonstrates that there
was insufficient familiarity with the body of scientific literature or with
institutional knowledge. The committee believes that this was manifested
in citations’ being too limited to constitute compelling evidence of support.
The uSSRA failed to validate some assumptions through multiple sources
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40 NBAF UPDATED SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT
and/or high-quality references. This is evident in how assumptions for data
inputs were made; examples of the invalid assumptions are presented below
in the case of the aerosol transference pathway and calculations for FMDv.
The examples set out in the following are not exhaustive but illustrate the
committee’s concerns.
Estimates of Material Available for Release
MAR for Aerosol
The committee is concerned that the MAR for aerosolized virus was
not adequately estimated. Limited data were applied from two sources
which examined exhaled virus of only two serotypes (Alexandersen et al.,
2002; Gloster et al., 2008); the uSSRA did not apply data from at least
four other studies that found much higher concentrations of aerosol virus
(Donaldson et al., 1982; Donaldson and Alexandersen, 2001; Alexandersen
and Donaldson, 2002; Alexanderson et al., 2003). Moreover, because of the
methods used in the studies cited, the estimates did not account for virus
aerosolization from urine, feces, saliva, vesicular fluid, feed dust, etc., and
thus the MAR figures for airborne virus would further underestimate actual
virus available in the air of animal rooms. Failure to sufficiently consider
the broad natural variation in virulence among FMDv serotypes and among
strains within a serotype (Beard and Mason, 2000; Mason et al., 2003;
Grubman and Baxt, 2004) resulted in overly restrictive and likely unrep-
resentatively low aerosol MAR estimates for the repertoire of strain–host
experiments expected for the NBAF.
MAR for Special Procedures
The MAR assumed for special procedures (e.g., shipment spills) was 3.6
× 104 plaque-forming units per millimeter (PFU/mL) (p. 130 of the uSSRA).
The assumed value is low by at least a factor of 100 if one considers the
most common type of procedure undertaken daily—namely, virus passage
in cell cultures—whether as part of an experiment or simply to maintain the
laboratory’s inventory of viruses. Specific cell lines are used to maximize the
titer of virus, depending on the serotype and strain. Typical virus concentra-
tions are around 105–107, and sometimes 108 for cell-adapted virus (Tam
et al., 2009). For determining amounts of FMDv, the uSSRA states that
it chose to use only references that involved primary bovine thyroid cells
for input data “because the bovine thyroid cell assay is the most sensitive
for determining the concentration of FMDv” (p. 110). The only reference
cited for that optimal sensitivity dates to 1966 (Snowdon, 1966). However,
investigators have been using other cell cultures to grow FMDv for the in-
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EVALUATION OF ACCIDENT EVENT MODELING
tervening 45 years with excellent results, and FMDv is now usually grown
in BHK or LK cells (of bovine origin) or PK or IBRS2 cells (of swine origin),
depending on serotype and other factors. The committee finds that ignoring
the intervening literature and basing future practices on a reference from
1966 is a critical oversimplification in stating that only one cell culture is
the most sensitive for growing the virus.
More reasonable concentrations would be 105–107, and occasionally
108, depending on serotype and whether it is a primary isolation or a cell-
adapted virus. Thus, the use of such a low titer of virus throughout the
uSSRA as an estimate for MAR artificially diminishes the magnitude of
a leak. Because factors in the model multiply to yield risks, an order-of-
magnitude underestimation in each of several multiplied factors quickly
reduces the final risk.
Low, Median, and High MAR Values
Accounting for variability in MAR is a valid objective, as is the use
of Monte Carlo simulations. The committee notes that many of the input
parameters appear skewed and that calculations were completed for the
low, median, and high values for MAR (and other factors; see below). These
were then assembled by weighting the 5th percentile by 5%, the median by
90%, and the 95th by 5% and taking a weighted sum. That is a purely ad
hoc procedure and is inconsistent with the mathematics of probability. If
the distribution of values were known, randomly sampling from the whole
distribution (rather than separate runs for the 5th, median, and 95th per-
centiles) would have given more robust insights and allowed for rigorous
sensitivity analyses.
Section 4.4.1 of the uSSRA notes that “1,000 runs were performed”;
the committee assumes that this refers to the Monte Carlo simulation. Typi-
cally, moderately complex models require more than 1,000 or even 10,000
iterations to achieve stability in the output. Without sufficient iterations to
give model stability, the results may be inaccurate compared with results
based on adequate iterations. The uSSRA should have consistently estab-
lished that the number of iterations used in Monte Carlo simulations were
sufficient to give stable model results, as is standard practice in stochastic
modeling. That is, the target error rate and confidence should be specified.
Some carefully chosen examples would have improved transparency and
clarity of the methods and results.
Assumption About Respirator Use
Regarding lack of sufficient institutional knowledge or practices, the
uSSRA states that N95 respirators will always be worn by workers dealing
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42 NBAF UPDATED SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT
with animals (alive or dead) that are infected with FMDv (p. 99). The com-
mittee suspects that that change in standard operating procedure (SOP) to
require respirator use may have been a result of the 2010 SSRA’s indicating
that the scenario of FMDv transfer without respirators contributed about
half the estimated 70% chance of release over 50 years. FMDv investiga-
tors at several institutes explored the option of using N95 respirators when
working with infected animals and concluded that they were unnecessary
(Donaldson, 2008). Inasmuch as animal caretakers routinely go from in-
fected to uninfected rooms the next day, using routine shower and decon-
tamination practices without respirators and without transmitting FMDv
to control animals, readers familiar with FMDv would question why N95
respirators would be required and what base of institutional knowledge the
uSSRA chose to build from.
The committee also has concerns about the documentation of the sources
and reliability of the data used in this analysis. The scientific rationale for
wearing respirators presented here is based on studies reported in 1969 and
1970 in which experiments were done to determine the amount of virus
present in the nasal passages of humans after exposure to animals infected
with FMDv and to determine potential transmission to naïve animals. Those
studies are well known to the global FMD community and formed the basis
of the 3- to 7-day quarantine period that has been observed at many research
facilities working with FMD. However, these studies and assessments were
brought into question after the 2001 outbreak of FMD in the United King-
dom: By implementing a policy for an outbreak situation that was intended
for the laboratory setting, the mandatory quarantine period so severely
restricted the availability of animal health personnel to visit farms that it
prompted research after the outbreak. Subsequent experiments done at Plum
Island and Pirbright (Amass et al., 2003, 2004; Wright et al., 2010) observed
that for a couple of strains, routine biosafety measures, such as showering
and changing clothing, were sufficient to keep operators from spreading
FMD infection from one animal room to another. The uSSRA does refer to
two of the publications dealing with assessment of FMDv carriage by animal
health personnel (Amass et al., 2004; Wright et al., 2010) but chooses to
compute risk based on much earlier data. Again, it is probably the conclu-
sions from the 2010 SSRA that formed the uSSRA’s basis for wearing N95
masks, but it is in contrast to the policy at FMD laboratories worldwide.
The committee also questions the data used to model the efficiency of
N95 respirators. On p. 157, the uSSRA notes that a 2.5% failure rate for
N95 respirators is expected because of a published failure rate (Cummings
et al., 2007). The cited reference deals with poor N95 efficiency in workers
in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, when the failure rate was actually
around 75%, so the reference is not appropriate. The uSSRA also cites
considerable N95 experimental penetration data (p. 100), and this may
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EVALUATION OF ACCIDENT EVENT MODELING
be what allows it to use a 2.5% failure rate; however, these data are from
studies that dealt with very controlled laboratory studies and did not take
into account head movement, facial abnormalities, and other human (but
non-fit) issues. Therefore, the committee views the use of a 2.5% failure
rate in a real-life setting as an under-representation of reality.
Factors Related to Respiratory Transference
With respect to transference to the respiratory tract, the uSSRA as-
sumes that failure rates due to poor fit of N95 masks would be only one-
tenth the rate identified in a published study, in which failure rates of about
25% were found when the mask fit was poor. The uSSRA justifies the much
lower rate based on the purported NBAF requirement that masks will fit
correctly. Such a requirement may exist, but the basis for tenfold reduction
seems poorly supported, especially because only a single study of mask
failure is cited. It is not clear that human error is taken into account in
this estimate of failure. The assumed failure rate seems overly optimistic,
particularly in light of the physical exertion required of personnel working
with large animals.
Although the wearing of N95 respirators may be a moot point, inas-
much as the change in SOP to require respirator use for FMDv work is not
supported by literature, the committee is concerned that there are so many
errors in the analysis of the data and the computations surrounding these
respirators.
What Constitutes a System Failure
The uSSRA appears to assume 100% function or 0% function—all or
none. It does not address functional disabilities that would adversely affect
the efficiency of systems (such as incineration, autoclaves, EDS, and HEPA
filtration) when it is less than 100% operational but has not indicated
“failure.” These may be subtle problems that do not appreciably affect
sensors or monitors and thus would not detect partial loss of function. It is
unlikely that all equipment and systems will operate at full 100% (perfect)
function 100% of the time or that redundancy will always protect against
such marginal failure conditions. It is also unlikely that systems that are
not at 100% function will be at 0% function unless they are completely
shut down. The question not addressed is how often systems would be less
than 100% functional and how that would adversely affect, for example,
efficiency of virus kill or reduction. Downtime for routine maintenance,
repairs, and replacement when there is not likely to be redundancy was
not addressed.
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44 NBAF UPDATED SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT
MODELING OF CATASTROPHIC NATURAL HAZARDS
The uSSRA attempts to model natural disasters caused by extreme
winds (including tornadoes and hurricanes) and seismic activity. That was
done to determine engineering requirements for ensuring the integrity of
the biocontainment areas and to assess the risk of an envelope breach. The
Manhattan, Kansas, site is in the heart of “Tornado Alley,” and tornadoes
are generally known as the most significant natural hazard threat for that
area. Hurricanes and floods were discussed briefly but are not included
as catastrophic events examined in the uSSRA. Earthquakes would not
normally be considered a serious hazard in the area, but they are also as-
sessed. It does not appear that the Riley County hazard and vulnerability
assessment was reviewed as part of the uSSRA process; that could have
informed the uSSRA on the highest risks perceived by those most familiar
with the area.
TORNADOES
Tornado Risk Method
The uSSRA substantially extended and refined its treatment of torna-
does by transitioning from tornado F-Scale to Enhanced F-Scale (EF-Scale),
using the leveraging method developed by the Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory, including provision for the facility size and considering spatial
variation of wind speed along the damage path of a tornado. A site-specific
tornado risk model that relates tornadic wind speed with the annual prob-
ability of occurrence (or the mean recurrence interval, commonly referred
to as the mean return period) is the most critical component of any tornado
risk assessment study.
Tornado Modeling
The uSSRA provides an overall tornado risk analysis that is state of
the art and that has been used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for
power plant designs, and this analysis is an improvement over that provided
in the 2010 SSRA. It uses an appropriate method, which includes additional
data that are “event-based” rather than “segment-based”; the latter has
inherent shortcomings. The uSSRA provides a continuous distribution of
the strike probability of a tornado by wind speed and includes 5th and 95th
percentiles. Due to insufficient sample size at higher wind speeds for large
EF-Scale tornadoes, the estimated percentiles are influenced by this lack of
data for high wind speeds which adds to the uncertainty for the estimates,
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EVALUATION OF ACCIDENT EVENT MODELING
and the uSSRA noted that the estimates should be used with caution. The
design wind speeds used in the uSSRA appear to be adequate for the design
of such a facility with the prescribed probability of exceedance (POE).
Whereas the overall hazard analysis is state of the art, the results should
have been analyzed by using more refined spatial techniques to observe
tornado patterns, such as kernel density estimation (KDE). KDE is an
interpolation scheme that emphasizes spatial patterns at a location rather
than considering only locations where tornadoes were recorded. In light of
the risks provided in the uSSRA, it is unlikely that any further refinement
in analysis would yield changes that would affect the final cumulative risk
across events.
Tornado Design Aspects
The uSSRA suggests that the current NBAF 65% designs provide a
tornado-hardened zone to ensure protection against loss of containment
in the event of a tornado and protection against envelope penetration and
development of cracks up to wind speeds of 228 mph. The protection also
includes defense against windborne missiles (such as projectiles and debris)
that can become airborne in tornadoes and can result in serious damage.
Figures 2.4.5-2 and 4.6.3-3 of the uSSRA highlight the tornado-
hardened sections of the NBAF to ensure the integrity of the containment
and envelope. The uSSRA does not include any systematically derived
fragility curve (e.g., conditional probability of failure or other adverse per-
formance given the level of tornado loading) for each performance level to
correspond with the established level of risk associated with tornado wind
speeds. That would be necessary to demonstrate the efficacy of the designed
performance levels of the containment system and its envelope. A fragility
curve for a prescribed performance criterion would define a level of damage
conditional on wind speed. When weighted with the corresponding prob-
ability density function of wind speed, it yields a probability of failure at the
stated performance level. In the absence of a fragility analysis, it is assumed
that no pathogens will be lost at the maximum design wind speed of 228
mph. The uSSRA also assumes that 100% of the MAR will be released if
the winds reach 260–280 mph. That assumption is not backed up by a fra-
gility analysis related to the integrity of the structural system or a breach of
the containment. In the absence of a detailed catastrophic failure model for
the NBAF, it has been further assumed that the releases between the design
wind speed of 228 mph and the catastrophic wind speed of 260–289 mph
follow a prescribed distribution. Those release levels should have been re-
fined further with a fragility framework-based analysis, which would affect
the annual probability of release due to tornado loading.
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46 NBAF UPDATED SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT
Assessment of Methods and Assumptions
The uSSRA does not include a systematically derived fragility analysis
for different performance levels to correspond with the established level of
risk associated with tornado wind speeds. In the absence of such informa-
tion, it is not possible to assess the adequacy of the containment system
performance under tornadic winds.
EARTHQUAKES
Seismic Risk Assessment
The uSSRA assesses the risk of earthquakes at the site by using U.S.
Geological Survey spectral acceleration data to determine a 2% POE over
50 years at the NBAF site. Spectral acceleration is provided for two periods:
0.2 second and 1 second; these are appropriate starting points for the seis-
mic analysis.
Those numbers are subsequently updated in the uSSRA with the NBAF
design values. Rather than selecting a value of spectral acceleration com-
mensurate with the dynamic features of the building’s containment sys-
tem—which would be a short period of ground shaking (for example, the
0.2-second hazard)—the uSSRA uses a 1-second value. Selecting a long
rather than short event resulted in a POE over 50 years that is 20 times
higher than what would be expected. Because the NBAF would be a low-
rise structure, the uSSRA should have selected a short period of accelera-
tion, which would result in a lower POE and lower hazard across events.
It is important to note that the short period of ground shaking with lower
POE also results in a higher degree of damage. It is not possible to know
how it will affect the overall risk without conducting a systematic analysis
of structural fragility; however, it appears that the uSSRA predicts cumula-
tive risk across events that is excessively high.
Earthquake Design Aspects
In the uSSRA, it appears that the selection of earthquake ground accel-
eration and the associated performance of the structure at a given ground
acceleration have been treated in isolation. The selection of ground motion
in the uSSRA was used to assess the risk of pathogen escape as a result
of cracks and breaches in the building envelope, whereas the seismic per-
formance of the structure has been the responsibility of the architects and
engineers at the NBAF Design Partnership. The lower ground acceleration
associated with modeling a 1-second period would yield a higher POE, but
would result in a lower level of impact on the structural response, would
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EVALUATION OF ACCIDENT EVENT MODELING
result in lower level of cracking and ductile behavior, and may lead to a
smaller probability of pathogen escape. It has also been stipulated that the
NBAF Design Partnership would conform to the most current codes of
practice in designing and constructing the facility.
The uSSRA anticipates that hardening the facility for tornadoes also
improves the containment system’s capacity to resist earthquakes and re-
duces the probable loss of containment caused by an earthquake. A perfor-
mance-based multi-hazard analysis would allow complementary structural
features to share load effects of different hazards. An integrated approach
should have been used to appropriately account for hardened structural
designs in assessing risk associated with multiple hazards (such as tornadoes
and earthquakes).
A concern that arises with regard to the seismic analysis is the omission
of the effect of vibrations on non-structural elements, including sensitive
equipment necessary for filtering, ventilation, and control. To a large extent,
this is a design issue and such lab appurtenances should be well secured and
detuned from the main structure.
Assessment of Methods and Assumptions
The seismic risk analysis in the uSSRA fails to address fundamental
issues in the selection of appropriate design spectral acceleration and the
attendant performance of the containment system under design earthquake
conditions. Therefore, the committee questions the estimated values of
cumulative risk across events associated with seismic catastrophic events,
and finds that the uSSRA overestimates the risk due to wind and seismic
hazards.
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