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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×

Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize
Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance,
and Reconnaissance Investments





Committee on Examination of the Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Capability Planning and Analysis (CP&A) Process

Air Force Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES



THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS     500 Fifth Street, NW     Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This is a report of work supported by Grant FA 9550-11-1-0126 between the U.S. Air Force and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25814-6

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Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×

COMMITTEE ON EXAMINATION OF THE AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE (ISR) CAPABILITY PLANNING AND ANALYSIS (CP&A) PROCESS

BRIAN A. ARNOLD, Raytheon Company, Co-Chair

LAWRENCE J. DELANEY, Titan Corporation (retired), Co-Chair

COLLIN A. AGEE, U.S. Army

MELANI AUSTIN, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company

THOMAS J. BURNS, Science Applications International Corporation

PAMELA A. DREW, TASC

RAND H. FISHER, The Aerospace Corporation

KEITH R. HALL, Booz Allen Hamilton

LESLIE F. KENNE, LK Associates

ROBERT H. LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates

TERRY P. LEWIS, Raytheon Company

MICHAEL A. LONGORIA, The RAND Corporation

PAUL F. McMANAMON, Exciting Technology, LLC

MATT L. MLEZIVA, Wildwood Strategic Concepts, LLC

GERALD F. PERRYMAN, JR., Independent Consultant

JONATHAN M. SMITH, University of Pennsylvania

Staff

CARTER W. FORD, Study Director

GREGORY EYRING, Senior Program Officer

SARAH M. CAPOTE, Research Associate

ZEIDA PATMON, Program Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×

AIR FORCE STUDIES BOARD

GREGORY S. MARTIN, GS Martin Consulting, Chair

PAMELA A. DREW, TASC, Vice Chair

BRIAN A. ARNOLD, Raytheon Company

CLAUDE M. BOLTON, JR., Defense Acquisition University

STEVEN R.J. BRUECK, University of New Mexico

THOMAS J. BURNS, Science Applications International Corporation

FRANK J. CAPPUCCIO, Cappuccio and Associates, LLC

DONALD C. FRASER, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory (retired)

MICHAEL J. GIANELLI, The Boeing Company (retired)

DANIEL E. HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc.

ROBERT H. LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates

NANCY G. LEVESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute

LESTER L. LYLES, The Lyles Group

MATT L. MLEZIVA, Wildwood Strategic Concepts, LLC

C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Pranalytica, Inc.

GERALD F. PERRYMAN, JR., Independent Consultant

RICHARD V. REYNOLDS, The VanFleet Group, LLC

J. DANIEL STEWART, University of Tennessee

REBECCA WINSTON, Winston Strategic Management Consulting

Staff

TERRY J. JAGGERS, Director

MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Deputy Director

DIONNA C. ALI, Senior Program Assistant

JESSICA R. BROKENBURR, Financial Assistant

SARAH M. CAPOTE, Research Associate

GREGORY EYRING, Senior Program Officer

CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer

CHRIS JONES, Financial Manager

ZEIDA PATMON, Program Associate

MARGUERITE E. SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator

DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×

Preface

Prior to 2009 the U.S. Air Force did not have a comprehensive approach for investing in and acquiring intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. In 2009, the Air Force developed and implemented the ISR Flight Plan to focus Air Force needs on future ISR capabilities and has subsequently renamed this approach Capability Planning and Analysis (CP&A), which shares characteristics of, but does not equate to, the Air Force development planning process.1 In 2011, the Air Force requested that the National Research Council (NRC), under the auspices of the Air Force Studies Board (AFSB), undertake a study to improve this process, specifically to provide the Air Force foundational analytics to aid decision making, especially in light of overall future defense spending. In response to this request, the NRC established the Committee on Examination of the Air Force ISR CP&A Process. Biographical information for the committee members is provided in Appendix A. The terms of reference for the study are presented in Box 1-1 in Chapter 1.

The AFSB was established in 1996 as a unit of the NRC at the request of the U.S. Air Force. The AFSB brings to bear broad military, industrial, and academic scientific, engineering, and management expertise on Air Force technical challenges and other issues of importance to senior Air Force leaders. The board discusses potential studies of interest, develops and frames study tasks, ensures proper project planning, suggests potential committee members and reviewers for reports produced by fully independent ad hoc study committees, and convenes meetings to examine strategic issues. The board members were not asked to endorse the committee’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they review the final draft of this report

______________

1U.S. Air Force. 2010. Development Planning Guide. Wright-Patterson Air Force Base: Air Force Materiel Command Directorate of Intelligence and Requirements. June.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×

before its release, although board members with appropriate expertise may be nominated to serve as formal members of study committees or as report reviewers.

The committee thanks the many people who provided it with information for the study, including the guest speakers shown in Appendix B, their organizations, and supporting staff members; and others, including the study sponsors Dr. Steven Walker, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Science, Technology, and Engineering, and Lt Gen Larry James, Deputy Chief of Staff for ISR, and their staff members.

Brian A. Arnold, Co-Chair
Lawrence J. Delaney, Co-Chair

Committee on Examination of the Air Force
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance
(ISR) Capability Planning and Analysis (CP&A) Process

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

William P. Delaney, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory,

Ronald P. Fuchs, Independent Consultant,

Richard L. Garwin, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center,

Mark Lewis, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute,

Anthony Metoyer, The Boeing Company,

Thomas E. Romesser, Northrop Grumman Corporation (retired),

Peter B. Teets, U.S. Air Force/National Reconnaissance Office (retired), and

Alan R. Washburn, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×

of this report was overseen by Julia M. Phillips, Sandia National Laboratories, and Robert J. Hermann, U.S. Air Force/National Reconnaissance Office (retired). Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
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×

Acronyms

A2/AD

anti-access/area denial

ACC

Air Combat Command

ACL

Achievable Capabilities List

AF

Air Force

AF/A2

Deputy Chief of Staff of the Air Force for ISR

AFCS

Air Force Corporate Structure

AFI

Air Force Instruction

AFISRA

Air Force ISR Agency

AFMC

Air Force Materiel Command

AFROC

Air Force Requirements Oversight Council

AFSPC

Air Force Space Command

AOA

analysis of alternatives

AOC

Air Operations Center

APPG

annual planning and programming guidance

ARFORGEN

Army Force Generation

 

 

BA

Battlespace Awareness

BA CIB

Battlespace Awareness Capabilities Integration Board

BAH

Booz Allen Hamilton

BAPA

Battlespace Awareness and Portfolio Assessment

BCT

Brigade Combat Teams

BES

Budget Estimate Submission

BMDS

Ballistic Missile Defense System

 

 

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×
C2

command and control

C4I

command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence

CA&P

capability assessment and planning

CADD

Capability Area Deep Dive

CAPE

Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation

CART

Capabilities Analysis Requirements Tool

CASA

Communications Architecture Systems Assessor

CBA

Capabilities-Based Assessment

CBP

capability-based planning

CBPfM

Capabilities-Based Portfolio Management

CDD

Capability Description Document

CDRUSSTRATCOM

Commander, U.S. Strategic Command

CET

Capabilities Effectiveness Tool

CFLI

Core Function Lead Integrator

CFMP

Core Function Master Plan

CJCS

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

CJCSI

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction

CNO

Chief of Naval Operations

COCOM

Combatant Command

COIN

counterinsurgency

COMINT

communications intelligence

CONOPS

concept of operations

CoP

community of practice

COTS

commercial off-the-shelf

CP&A

Capability Planning and Analysis

CPM

Capability Portfolio Manager

CRD

Capabilities Requirements Document

CRRA

Capability Review and Risk Assessment

CSA

Coalition Situational Awareness

CSAF

Chief of Staff of the Air Force

 
DAWG

Deputy’s Advisory Working Group

DCGS

Distributed Common Ground Station

DCR

DOTMLPF Change Recommendation

DMZ

Demilitarized Zone

DNI

Director of National Intelligence

DoD

Department of Defense

DOTMLPF

Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and Education, Personnel and Facilities

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DOTMLPF-P

Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and Education, Personnel, Facilities, and Policy

DOT_LPF

non-material analysis

DPRK

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

DRU

Direct Reporting Unit

 

 

 
E/CCA

Element/Component Characterizations for Analysis

EEI

essential elements of information

EFDS

Expeditionary Force Development System

ELINT

electronics intelligence

EMD

Engineering and Manufacturing Development

EO

electro-optical (imaging)

ESA

electronically scanned array

 

 

FCB

Functional Capabilities Board

FOA

Field Operating Agency

FY

Fiscal Year

FYDP

Future Years Defense Program

 

 

GAO

Government Accountability Office

GIISR

Global Integrated ISR

GMTI

ground moving target indicator

GOTS

government off-the-shelf

 

 

HAF

Headquarters (U.S.) Air Force

HLS

Homeland Security

HIS

hyperspectral imaging

HUMINT

human intelligence

 

 

IC

intelligence community

ICD

Initial Capabilities Document

IED

improvised explosive device

IPL

integrated priority list

IR

infrared

IROC

Intelligence Readiness Operations Capability

ISAR

Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar

ISCA

Integrated Sensor Coverage Area

ISR

intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance

ISR-CART

ISR Capabilities Analysis Requirements Tool

ITW

integrated tactical warning

 

 

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JBA

Joint Battlespace Awareness

JCA

Joint Capability Area

JCIDS

Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System

JFC

Joint Functional Concept

JFCC

Joint Functional Component Command

JOC

Joint Operations Center; Joint Operating Concept

JROC

Joint Requirements Oversight Council

JTF

Joint Task Force

JUON

Joint Urgent Operational Need

JWICS

Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System

 

 

M&S

modeling and simulation

MAJCOM

Major Command

MCO

Major Combat Operations

MDA

Milestone Decision Authority; Missile Defense Agency

MGA

Multi-resolution Gap Analysis

MI

Military Intelligence

MIP

Military Intelligence Program

MO

Mission Overwatch

MOE

measures of effectiveness

MOP

measures of performance

MOU

measures of utility

MRA

Multi-Resolution Analysis

MSA

modeling, simulation, and analysis

MSI

multispectral imager

MTI

Moving Target Indicator

 

 

NCDP

Naval Capabilities Development Process

NGA

National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

NGC

Northrop Grumman Corporation

NIIRS

National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scale

NIP

National Intelligence Program

NMS

National Military Strategy

NRC

National Research Council

NRO

National Reconnaissance Office

NSA

National Security Agency

NTISR

non-traditional ISR

 

 

OCO

Overseas Contingency Operation(s)

ORS

Operationally Responsive Space

OSD

Office of the Secretary of Defense

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
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OUSD(AT&L)

Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics

OUSD(I)

Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence

 

 

PAA

Persistent Area Assessment

PCL

Prioritized Capability List

PCPAD

planning and direction, collection, processing and exploitation, analysis and production, and dissemination

PDA

Problem Definition and Approach

PED

processing, exploitation, and dissemination

Pk

probability of kill

PLA

People’s Liberation Army

POC

point of contact

POM

Program Objective Memorandum

PoR

Program of Record

PP&R

Portfolios, Programs, and Resources

PPBES

planning, programming, budgeting, and execution system

 

 

QDR

Quadrennial Defense Review

QRC

Quick Reaction Capabilities

 

 

R&D

research and development

RCS

radar cross section

RMD

resource management decision

ROK

Republic of Korea

RPA

remotely piloted aircraft

 

 

SAR

synthetic aperture radar

SCADA

supervisory control and data acquisition

SCF

Service Core Function

SEA

Strategic Environmental Assessment

SEAS

System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation

SECAF

Secretary of the Air Force

SECDEF

Secretary of Defense

SETA

Systems Engineering and Technical Assistance

SID

Situation Development

SIGINT

signals intelligence

SIPRnet

Secret Internet Protocol Router Network

SLRG

Senior Level Review Group

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
×
SMC/XR

Space and Missile Systems Center, Directorate of Development Planning

SME

subject matter expert

SOAP

Satellite Orbit Analysis Program

SSDR

security system dynamically reconfigurable

STK

Satellite Tool Kit®

SYSSIM

System Simulation

 

 

TASC

The Analytical Sciences Corporation

TCPED

Tasking, Collection, Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination

TOA

Total Obligation Authority

TOR

terms of reference

TPED

tasking, processing, exploitation, and dissemination

 

 

UGS

unattended ground sensor

UON

urgent operational need

USAF

United States Air Force

USCYBERCOM

U.S. Cyber Command

USN

United States Navy

USSTRATCOM

U.S. Strategic Command

 

 

VCJCS

Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

VCSAF

Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force

 

 

WIP

Warfighter Involvement Process

WMD

weapons of mass destruction

Wx

weather

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13421.
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Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities have expanded situation awareness for U.S. forces, provided for more precise combat effects, and enabled better decision making both during conflicts and in peacetime, and reliance on ISR capabilities is expected to increase in the future. ISR capabilities are critical to 3 of the 12 Service Core Functions of the U.S. Air Force: namely, Global Integrated ISR (GIISR) and the ISR components of Cyberspace Superiority and Space Superiority, and contribute to all others.

In response to a request from the Air Force for ISR and the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Science, Technology, and Engineering, the National Research Council formed the Committee on Examination of the Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Capability Planning and Analysis (CP&A) Process. In this report, the committee reviews the current approach to the Air Force corporate planning and programming process for ISR capability generation; examines carious analytical methods, processes, and models for large-scale, complex domains like ISR; and identifies the best practices for the Air Force.

In Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments, the current approach is analyzed and the best practices for the Air Force corporate planning and programming processed for ISR are recommended. This report also recommends improvements and changes to existing analytical tools, methods, roles and responsibilities, and organization and management that would be required to ensure the Air Force corporate planning and programming process for ISR is successful in addressing all Joint, National, and Coalition partner's needs.

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