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Appendix C
Supplement to Chapter 3:
Descriptions of Additional
Organizational CP&A
Processes and Tools
MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) employs a capabilities analysis process for
establishing requirements that relies heavily on modeling and simulation.1 The
MDA seeks to engage the services and Combatant Commands (COCOMs) in the
process. Exempt from the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System
(JCIDS) requirements process, MDA has implemented the Warfighter Involvement
Process (WIP), represented in Figure C-1.
The WIP is designed to align the MDA program with warfighter priorities for
missile defense in a streamlined manner. The process starts with the U.S. Strategic
Command (USSTRATCOM) soliciting COCOM inputs, which are based on the
Defense Planning Guidance, threat developments, and the commander's intent.
The MDA consolidates and prioritizes these inputs into a Prioritized Capability
List (PCL). The PCL is intended to be written as capability needs, not to include
specifics of weapon system solutions. Within the JCIDS process, it is analogous to
the Initial Capability Document (ICD).
The MDA receives the PCL and performs an analysis of the baseline Program
of Record (PoR) in order to identify gaps in capability. The MDA captures the
parameters associated with the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) elements,
1Further information on MDA's testing and capabilities analysis process is available through the
MDA web site: "Supporting Efforts: Ballistic Missile Defense Testing." Available at http://www.mda.
mil/system/testing.html. Accessed February 28, 2012.
113
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114 C a pa b i l i t y P l a n n i n g and A na ly s i s to O p t i m i z e A i r F o r c e ISR
· Warfighter Involvement process aligns the MDA budget with COCOM priorities
Oversight by Missile Defense · The Prioritized Capability
COCOM Inputs Executive Board (MDEB)
AT&L lead, USDs, USSTRATCOM,
List (PCL) contains rank-
USSTRATCOM Develop
Required Capabilities J8, CAPE, Services ordered BMD capabilities
and serves as main reqt's
PCL Program of document for MDA
Record
Prioritize Gaps
BMD Metrics
ACL Threat Update
· The Achievable Capabilities
Mission Level
M&S List (ACL) responds to the PCL
Architecture
Prioritize Solutions
Analysis
· Assesses PCL
achievability and IDs gaps
USSTRATCOM · Provides key input to
Develop Program Budget & LEAD
Plan Acquisition MDA LEAD MDA POM and acq.
strategy
FIGURE C-1 The Missile Defense Agency's (MDA's) Warfighter Involvement Process. NOTE: Acronyms
C-1.eps
are defined in the list in the front matter. SOURCE: Missile Defense Agency.
as funded in the PoR, in the Element/Component Characterizations for Analysis
(E/CCA). The threat picture is also updated with the latest intelligence assessments.
The E/CCA and the updated threat picture are the analytic basis for identifying
gaps relative to the PCL. Element-level models such as the Aerospace Corporation's
System Performance Evaluation Tool (SPET) model for space-system tracking
quality are used to generate element capability parameters that are used in BMDS
engagement-level modeling (e.g., WILMA). These top-level models are used to gen-
erate the BMDS-level metrics, including defended area, raid capacity, probability
of engagement success, among others. The MDA architecture team performs ar-
chitecture assessment and proposes solutions to mitigate the gaps. These potential
solutions are assessed for gap closure using the same modeling and analysis tools.
Proposed solutions are prioritized by senior MDA leadership, and the highest-
priority solutions are selected for further requirements assessment, design work,
and top-level costing. The element-level requirements process is unlike the JCIDS
process in that the systems engineering and architecture process flows requirements
down from the PCL rather than performance requirements being directly provided
by the users. The lead services still provide Doctrine, Organization, Training, Mate-
riel, Leadership and Education, Personnel and Facilities (DOTMLPF) requirements
directly. The prioritized solutions are evaluated against the anticipated budgets,
and the director-approved Achievable Capabilities List (ACL) is briefed to the
Missile Defense Executive Board for final approval. The ACL is then provided to
USSTRATCOM as a response to the PCL. The element program modifications and
new program starts are approved by Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for
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A pp e n d i x C 115
Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (OUSD[AT&L]). The MDA uses a number
of tools that have been developed over time, including the following:
· The WILMA-Suite is an end-to-end modeling and analysis suite for BMDS
concept exploration used to predict the performance of missile defense ar-
chitectures. WILMA is a medium-fidelity end-to-end simulation evaluation
of missile defense architecture effectiveness, with consideration for battle
planning, communications, and integration alternatives. WILMA may also
be run in a higher-fidelity mode, used in conjunction with other in-depth
element, engineering, environment, phenomenology, and threat models to
make detailed assessments of missile defense system performance against
adversary ballistic missile attacks.
· The SPET models space-sensor architecture performance, including multi-
target tracking, scheduling, and handling association errors. SPET provides
ground-, air-, and space-infrared (IR)/visible-sensor system performance
against missile threat scenarios; the tool provides target signatures, cover-
age analysis, position and velocity tracking accuracy distributions, and
interceptor effectiveness.
· SYSSIM (System Simulation) also models space-sensor architecture per-
formance and includes interceptor flyouts (surface- or air-based). SYSSIM
models the interceptor's kinematic flyout or reach and also the probability
of kill (Pk) of the engagement. SYSSIM provides engagement time lines
and Pk as a function of space-/air-/ground-sensor tracking accuracy.
Observations and Attributes
Although the MDA process described above is specific to MDA requirements,
it necessarily considers intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) archi-
tectural assets (particularly communications and PCPAD/TCPED [planning and
direction, collection, processing and exploitation, analysis and production, and
dissemination/tasking, collecting, processing, exploiting, and disseminating]) in
order to deliver required capability. The MDA is exempt from the JCIDS process,
which streamlines decision time lines somewhat and has fostered the development
of a set of analysis tools that continue to evolve.
OPERATIONALLY RESPONSIVE SPACE OFFICE
The Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) Office was established (1) to con-
tribute to the development of low-cost, rapid-reaction payloads, buses, spacelift,
and launch-control capabilities in order to fulfill Joint military operational re-
quirements for on-demand support and reconstitution; and (2) to coordinate and
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Urgent
Needs from Tasking (SIPRNET)
JFCs
COCOMS & Services Data / Effects (SIPRNET)
STRATCOM
ESTABLISH DEFINE ORS Office
NEED APPROACH
Partners
w/ JFCCs
Needs/Ideas
ORS ACQUIRE
Concepts & CAPABILITY
Solutions
Partners
Solve
with ORS
Existing Acquisition
Systems DEPLOY
Solve Solve with New
with Capability & EMPLOY
Existing Partners
Systems
STRATCOM
w/ JFCCs
Needed capabilities
employed to produce
requested effects for JFC
FIGURE C-2 The Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) Office process provides three tiers of re-
sponse. SOURCE: ORS Office.
C-2.eps
execute operationally responsive space efforts across the Department of Defense
(DoD) with respect to planning, acquisition, and operations.2 The ORS Office
receives its tasking and requirements from the Commander, U.S. Strategic Com-
mand (CDRUSSTRATCOM) and has a streamlined reporting structure directly to
the DoD Executive Agent (EA) for Space.3 CDRUSSTRATCOM developed an initial
concept of operations (CONOPS) for the ORS Office that specifies a number of
warfighting effects expected by achieving an ORS end-state. Those effects are the
abilities to reconstitute lost capabilities, to augment or surge existing capabilities,
to fill unanticipated gaps in capabilities, to exploit new technical and operational
innovations, to respond to unforeseen or episodic events, and to enhance sur-
vivability and deterrence. Additionally, the CONOPS provides a requirement to
develop a three-tiered approach for delivering capability, as shown in Figure C-2.4
The Tier 1 requirement is the ability to employ existing space assets (on orbit)
in minutes to hours in order to meet an unforeseen need. The Tier 2 requirement
2Information on the mission of the ORS Office is available at http://ors.csd.disa.mil/mission/index.
html. Accessed February 28, 2012.
3Col Ken McLaughlin, Director, ORS Office. 2007. "Operationally Responsive Space Office." Slides
dated July 2007. Available at http://www.responsivespace.com/ors/reference/McLaughlin.pdf. Ac-
cessed February 28, 2012.
4ORS Program Office. More information on the three tiers of response is available at http://ors.csd.
disa.mil/tier-1/index.html. Accessed February 28, 2012.
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A pp e n d i x C 117
Joint Force
Commanders USSTRATCOM
Categorized &
with JFCCs Prioritized
COCOM Needs for Needs Set
Effects / J8
Capabilities J3 w/ JFCCs CDR
Service Comps · Triage for "Nominal · Apply ORS Need · Decision on
Ops" Solution Attribute Criteria Tasking ORS
· Recommendation Office
JTF
to CDR
ORS
Attributes of an Office
ORS Need
· Operational Relevance
· Urgency ( < 12 mos )
· Potential Space Solution
Other · Technical Feasibility
· In-Scope for ORS Resources
· ORS is best choice of
Execute possible means to address
Tier-1 Nominal this need
Need not appropriate for
Operations Solution ORS-pursue solutions
(not an ORS Office Needs for through other means (e.g.
task) Space Service initiatives)
Capabilities
Services / Agencies
(with matching funds)
FIGURE C-3 Step 1 of the Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) Office process: Establish need.
SOURCE: ORS Office. C-3.eps
is the ability to launch and/or deploy "field ready" assets in days to weeks; this
implies an "on call" capability. The Tier 3 requirement is the ability to rapidly
develop and transition to delivery a new or modified capability in months (not
years). CDRUSSTRATCOM has developed a process of seeking urgent needs from
combatant commanders and then prioritizing these needs and assigning tasking
to the ORS Office, which develops alternatives to meeting the urgent need. This
process is depicted in Figure C-3.
After establishing the need, the ORS Office then defines the approach to meet-
ing the identified need, which involves collaboration and iteration, as shown in
Figure C-4. Here, requirements are defined, prioritized, and validated; then a solu-
tions analysis process follows, which is ultimately presented to CDRUSSTRATCOM
and the EA for Space.
In addition to using subject-matter experts, the ORS Office uses several tools
that fall into five categories, described briefly below. Of note, the tools help imple-
ment the process more effectively and serve as aids to inform decisions.
Architecting Tools
The ORS Office response to urgent needs is really an analysis of alterna-
tives in a very compressed time line (typically 45 days from receipt of task from
CDRUSSTRATCOM to the delivery of recommended courses of action to both
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118 C a pa b i l i t y P l a n n i n g and A na ly s i s to O p t i m i z e A i r F o r c e ISR
Purpose: To rapidly move from USSTRATCOM-presented capability
need, to well-defined Requirements set, to potential ORS solutions
JFC Rapid Capability Conceptual Solution
Need Requirements Definition Development
~ 30 days
USSTRATCOM Capability JFC
Statement of Requirements
Operational Need
Reqmts
Document Validation
(short & focused)
Get JFC
Input
Led by ORS Office (or designee) Led by ORS Office (or designee)
~ 90 days
Potential
Solutions
Get JFC
~ 60 days
ORS Office CoA Approval Input
Solution by CDR STRAT
Execution and EA for Space
Get JFC
Input
FIGURE C-4 Step 2 of the U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) process: Define approach.
SOURCE: ORS Office. C-4.eps
CDRUSSTRATCOM and DoD EA for Space). ORS personnel typically use a varia-
tion of the Aerospace Systems Architecting Process (ASAP). The key is getting the
purpose analysis and problem framing done right up-front, by converting the
Statement of Need from the requesting Joint Force Commander or Joint Functional
Component Commander into the Capabilities Requirements Document (CRD).
The CRD contains a list of prioritized evaluation criteria from the user that help
evaluate courses of actions.
Interacting/Communicating Tools
When the requirements and concepts/solutions teams are working and having
teleconferences, it is important to have the proper communications capabilities in
place. The ORS Office developed a "hyper community of practice (CoP)" in 2008 as
a mechanism to capture and share data among all team members. The hyper-CoP
is a "SharePoint"-based tool that allows team members to have joint and immediate
access to all products developed by the teams.
Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis Tools
The fast pace of the response often precludes detailed modeling, simulation,
and analysis (MSA) work in the concept-formulation phase. However, the office
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A pp e n d i x C 119
used some Aerospace imagery simulation tools in preparing for the start of the
ORS-1 development process and used campaign models (e.g., System Effectiveness
Analysis Simulation [SEAS]) when completing the Joint Military Utility Analyses
after the launch of capabilities such as ORS-1, TacSat-3, and TacSat-4.
Visualization Tools
The ORS Office uses three visualization tools: Satellite Tool Kit (STK)®; Sat-
ellite Orbit Analysis Program (SOAP); and the Advanced Geospatial Intelligence
Tool Kit (AGI/TK). These tools facilitate the comparison of orbits' "best fit" in
meeting a need.
Decision Support Tools
The ORS Office uses Expert Choice® to assist in pair-wise comparisons and de-
cision support when the concepts/solutions team is finalizing its recommendations.
(The tool Expert Choice is provided through the company Decision Lens.) It is a
widely used tool, often employed to assist source selection teams in documenting
choices made during competitive source selections. Decision Lens has also devel-
oped enterprise architecture/knowledge-management tools, without great success.
Observation and Attributes
The ORS process is streamlined in that it takes typically well-defined, "urgent"
requirements from Joint Force Commanders, develops alternative solutions, and
presents recommendations directly to CDRUSSTRATCOM and the DoD EA for
Space, substantially reducing the time line for decisions. The process takes into
consideration ISR capabilities across the enterprise. In general, the process does
not directly address the emergent cyber threats or considerations.
NATIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OFFICE
The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) collaborates with its mission part-
ners and capability managers across the intelligence community (IC) and the
Department of Defense, as depicted in Figure C-5. In many cases, the NRO both
acquires and operates systems.
The NRO uses a process, led by its Chief System Engineering Office, to perform
system- and architectural-level analysis to inform investment decisions, as shown
in Figure C-6. The process uses a top-down approach through which strategic
guidance and mission needs are decomposed, followed by an assessment of cur-
rent capabilities in order to identify shortfalls and gaps. Next is an iterative process
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120 C a pa b i l i t y P l a n n i n g and A na ly s i s to O p t i m i z e A i r F o r c e ISR
Intelligence Reporting Intelligence and
DOD
Needs
Capability Capability
Managers Managers
Operational Operational
Reporting Tasking Mission Needs
NRO System
Director Of National
Operations Intelligence
Systems and Mission Requirements
Capabilities Acquisition NRO Systems Strategic/Budget
Guidance Direction
Acquisition
Building and Operating Systems to Users Needs
FIGURE C-5 The National Reconnaissance Office's (NRO's) capability evaluation and delivery process.
SOURCE: Maj Gen Susan Mashiko, Deputy Director, National Reconnaissance Office. "Briefing to
C-5.eps
the Committee on Examination of the Air Force ISR CP&A Process." Presentation to the committee,
December 8, 2011.
National National
Security
NRO Priorities
Intelligence
National Priorities Consolidated Space
Intelligence Framework Intelligence Strategy
Other
Strategy Guidance
S&T
Opportunities Assessment of
Mission Needs
Acquisition Opportunities
Architecture Top-Down* Investment Cost
Thrusts
Low (1x) Medium (10x) High (100x)
Gap Analysis Gaps Opportunities
High
Mission & Enterprise Benefit
(To Guide Planning) (To Fill Gaps)
Medium
Low
Decision Points
Current Capabilities
Periodic xxx xxx
xxx xxx
Updates xxx xxx
xxx xxx
xxx xxx
xxx xxx Recommendations
xxx xxx
xxx xxx
xxx xxx
NRO Planning Intelligence Program
Enterprise
Guidance Budget Submission
Plan (IPBS)
* Top-Down Planning used to help guide and drive
investment opportunities and investment planning
Dec Jan Apr Jul
FIGURE C-6 The National Reconnaissance Office's (NRO's) integrated architecture and investment
C-6.eps
planning process. SOURCE: National Reconnaissance Office.
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A pp e n d i x C 121
that evaluates alternative solutions based on NRO and operational priorities for
informing potential investment decisions. The NRO uses a variety of tools, both
commercial off-the-shelf and custom.
RAND CORPORATION
The RAND Corporation uses two main systems engineering tools: the Systems
and CONOPS Operational Effectiveness Model (SCOPEM) developed by RAND
and the SEAS Modeling Environment maintained and developed by ExoAnalytic
Solutions for the Air Force Space Command, Space and Missile Systems Center,
Directorate of Development Planning (SMC/XR). SEAS is part of the Air Force
Standard Analysis Toolkit and the Air Force Space Command Modeling and Simu-
lation Toolkit (see Figure C-7).
The SCOPEM tool is designed to examine tasking, collection, and targeting
decisions within the SEAS Modeling Environment and offers flexible output for
the development of measures of performance and/or effectiveness (such as target
quality like the National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scale [NIIRS] rating or
signal-to-noise ratio and predetermined metrics such as the number of signals
intelligence [SIGINT] cues successfully prosecuted in an hour). See Figures C-8
and C-9.
An agent has "autonomy"
Weather Communications
P erc eptions
Sensors
Decisions
Terrain Agents
Sea State
System and Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) is maintained
developed by ExoAnalytic Solutions for the Air Force Space Command, SEAS Model Manager:
Space and Missile Systems Center, Directorate of Developmental Planning CaptMonica Jordan, Air Force, SMC/XR
(SMC/XR).
SEAS Contract Support:
SEAS is part of the Air Force Standard Analysis Toolkit and the Air Force Eric Frisco, ExoAnalytic Solutions
Space Command Modeling and Simulation Toolkit
http://teamseas.com
FIGURE C-7 The System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) tool is part of the Air Force Space
Command Modeling and Simulation Toolkit C-7.eps
used by the RAND Corporation. SOURCE: Lance Menthe,
Physical Scientist, RAND Corporation. "The Systems and CONOPS Operational Effectiveness Model
(SCOPEM) and Systems Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) Modeling Environment." Presenta-
tion to the committee, December 7, 2011.
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Platforms
Behaviors
· Speed
· Maneuvers · Endurance
· Collection Decks · Comms
· Cueing & Tasking
· Sensor Fusion
· Interactions
SCOPEM Sensors
SEAS · EO/IR/FMV
· SAR
· ISAR
· MTI
· ELINT
Environment Weapons
· Terrain (LoS )
· Sea State / Wind · Missiles
· Weather · Bombs
· Lasers
FIGURE C-8 RAND Corporation tool written for the System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS)
C-8.eps
modeling environment. NOTE: The Systems and CONOPS Operational Effectiveness Model (SCOPEM)
was formerly known as the Collections Operations Model. SOURCE: Lance Menthe, Physical Scien-
tist, RAND Corporation. "The Systems and CONOPS Operational Effectiveness Model (SCOPEM) and
Systems Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) Modeling Environment." Presentation to the com-
mittee, December 7, 2011.
Platform
Environment
· Orbit / flight path
· Terrain ( LoS ) · Speed / altitude
· Seastate / winds · Endurance
· Weather
Sensors
Target · Range / dwell times
· NIIRS characteristics · Field of regard / field of view
( EO/IR/SAR ) Target
detected? · NIIRS capabilities (EO/IR/SAR)
· RCS (ISAR/MTI)
· ERP, lobes, frequency
· RCS thresholds (ISAR/MTI)
(SIGINT) · Sensitivity, scan cycle (SIGINT)
Weapons
· Range / flight times
· Field of regard / aiming
· CEP, Pk
Processing
· Basic sensor data fusion
Cue to
· Communications / PED delays Reacquire?
· Route planning
· Behaviors / Decisionmaking
FIGURE C-9 The RAND tool Systems and CONOPS Operational Effectiveness Model (SCOPEM) is
designed to examine tasking, collection, and targeting decisions. SOURCE: Lance Menthe, Physical
Scientist, RAND Corporation. "The Systems and CONOPS Operational Effectiveness Model (SCOPEM)
and Systems Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) Modeling Environment." Presentation to the
committee, December 7, 2011. C-9.eps
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A pp e n d i x C 123
The utility of this simple tool was illustrated by a series of sensor, weapon, and
environment models such as generic sensor models, electro-optical (EO)/ infrared
(IR)/synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and electronics intelligence (ELINT) imaging
performance estimates, ground moving target indicator (GMTI) tracking models,
general weapons models, a missile model, a directed-energy weapon (laser) model,
and environmental effects. Four recent examples of SCOPEM/SEAS evaluation
scenarios include (1) Global Hawk sensor performance in various maritime opera-
tions: MCO-1, MCO-2, and maritime interdiction; (2) air-based and space-based
maritime domain awareness in the Mediterranean region; (3) evaluation of F-22
sensor capabilities; and (4) finding, identifying, and tracking of vehicles, using
different classes of remotely piloted aircraft, under varied environmental condi-
tions. In summary, SCOPEM is a very accessible, text input-, personal computer/
Windows-based tool by which complex behaviors are built out of simple behav-
iors and interactions. Like the more complex Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA)
processes advocated by TASC and RadiantBlue, it is a repeatable, transparent, and
understandable tool.
U.S. CYBER COMMAND
The U.S. Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) is a subunified command sub-
ordinate to USSTRATCOM. USCYBERCOM centralizes command of cyberspace
operations, organizes existing cyber resources, and synchronizes the defense of U.S.
military networks.5 USCYBERCOM plans, coordinates, integrates, synchronizes,
and conducts activities to direct the operations and defense of specified DoD in-
formation networks; and to prepare to and, when directed, conduct full-spectrum
military cyberspace operations in order to enable actions in all domains, to ensure
U.S./Allied freedom of action in cyberspace, and to deny the same to adversaries.
The command is charged with pulling together existing cyberspace resources,
creating synergy and synchronizing warfighting effects to defend the information
security environment.6 USCYBERCOM is tasked with centralizing the command of
cyberspace operations, strengthening DoD cyberspace capabilities, and integrating
and bolstering DoD's cyber expertise. As depicted in Figure C-10, USCYBERCOM
requirements range from strategic to operational to tactical requirements, with sig-
nificant emphasis in the operational to tactical arena owing to the dynamic cyber/
network environment and very short time lines for action and reaction.7
5U.S. Air Force (USAF). 2010. "Cyberspace Operations. Air Force Doctrine Document 3-12." Avail-
able at http://www.fas.org/irp/DoDdir/usaf/afdd3-12.pdf. Accessed February 27, 2012.
6Ibid.
7Everett (Rusty) Rollins, Deputy Director of the Joint Intelligence Operations Center, USCYBER-
COM, Directorate of Intelligence (J2). "USCYBERCOM's Approach to Capability Planning and
Analysis for the Cyber Domain." Presentation to the committee, January 5, 2012.
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124 C a pa b i l i t y P l a n n i n g and A na ly s i s to O p t i m i z e A i r F o r c e ISR
FIGURE C-10 U.S. Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) requirements for operating in cyberspace.
SOURCE: Everett (Rusty) Rollins, Deputy Director of the Joint Intelligence Operations Center,
USCYBERCOM, Directorate of Intelligence (J2). "USCYBERCOM's Approach to Capability Planning
and Analysis for the Cyber Domain." Presentation to the committee, January 5, 2012.
Additionally, USCYBERCOM responsibilities and authorities cross multiple
organizations and commands as well as Title 10 (DoD) and Title 50 (IC) to sup-
port both offensive and defensive activities.8,9
GOOGLE, INC.
Google was invited to share its capabilities planning process as a potential
example of a successful commercial enterprise in a very dynamic, fast-paced,
global arena. Interestingly, Google did not present a "process" chart; its investment
decisions are based on an evaluation by the company leadership of cost, return
8Ibid.
9The military services and the IC have specific roles and responsibilities, as defined by Title 10 and
Title 50 of the U.S. Code, respectively. For additional information on Title 10, see http://uscode.house.
gov/download/title_10.shtml. For additional information on Title 50, see http://uscode.house.gov/
download/title_50.shtml. Accessed March 21, 2012.
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A pp e n d i x C 125
on investment, and probability of success.10 Google is focused on responding to
customer needs and on continuing to grow a collaborative environment, and it is
perhaps more risk-tolerant than many other organizations.11 Google's decision
processes are expeditious, in keeping with the dynamics of the fast-evolving cloud
network and social media arena. Once approved, if an initiative's measured results
fall short of expectations, the activity is generally curtailed, with lessons learned
being documented and shared across the company; hence the phrase "Fail fast/
Fail smartly."12,13
Observations and Attributes
The capabilities planning process at Google is expeditious owing to the com-
pany's "flat" organizational structure, with relatively few decision makers. The cul-
ture and operational concept encourage risk taking and are not overly encumbered
with deep layers of analysis and recursive iterations. Customer utilization metrics
are used effectively to evaluate and inform investment decisions.
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NGC) provides system engineering analysis
to the U.S. government and consulting services to the ISR community.14 NGC pre-
sented several examples of MSA tools that were attributed to work performed by
TASC prior to the spin-off of TASC from NGC. The physics-based tool for rapid
strategic analysis to guide investment portfolio analysis was identified as a Layered
ISR Architecture Analysis (see Figure C-11). This layered analysis process is used
to conduct rapid, system-of-systems capabilities-based analysis of air- and space-
based ISR systems to identify effective force mix options for DoD and IC needs.15
NGC-described attributes of this process include agility, visibility, flexibility and
10Michele Weslander-Quade, Chief Technology Officer, Google, Inc. "Google's Approach to Capabil-
ity Planning and Analysis." Remarks to the committee, January 5, 2012.
11More information on the Google mission and philosophy is available at http://www.google.com/
about/company/tenthings.html. Accessed February 28, 2012.
12Michele Weslander-Quade, Chief Technology Officer, Google, Inc. "Google's Approach to Capabil-
ity Planning and Analysis." Remarks to the committee, January 5, 2012.
13No specific analytic or decision support tools were presented in Google's remarks to the committee.
14More information on Northrup Grumman Corporation system engineering and analysis projects
is available at http://www.northropgrumman.com/about_us/index.html. Accessed February 28, 2012.
15More information on Northrop Grumman's C4ISR products and programs is available at http://
www.northropgrumman.com/isr/index.html. Accessed February 28, 2012.
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126 C a pa b i l i t y P l a n n i n g and A na ly s i s to O p t i m i z e A i r F o r c e ISR
1. Decision Maker selects scenario, 2. Collaborative session to vote 3. Analysts/staff conduct
phase, domain, and players to target/collection priorities in CET runs for every
assess each scenario and phase scenario and phase
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
TBM SC GFR GFAO GFIR
6. Filter results to 5. Force mixes from all 4. Analysts/staff conduct sanity
build decision phases feed Analysis check of individual mix
space for mixes of Workbench results
interest
7. Perform physics-
based analysis
runs of CET mix
results 8. Iterate as
required...
FIGURE C-11 Northrop Grumman Corporation's C-11.eps
(NGC's) layered intelligence, surveillance, and re-
connaissance (ISR) analysis process. SOURCE: Kurt Dittmer, Advanced Programs and Technology,
Advanced Projects Director, Northrop Grumman Corporation. "Layered ISR Architecture Analysis, Col-
lection Capability Discussion." Presentation to the committee, January 5, 2012. Copyrighted material.
Used with permission from Northrop Grumman Corporation.
maturity.16 The process engages the decision maker early and encourages iterative
collaboration among operators and analysts for developing an understanding of
system and capability trade-offs.
NGC's layered ISR process highlighted a top-level ISR force mix assessment
tool--the Layered ISR Capabilities Effectiveness Tool (CET)--created by an NGC
team of analysts in order to facilitate Long-Range Strategic Plan trade-offs for
ISR systems following the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR).17 This tool
was licensed to USSTRATCOM J81 for a proof of principle in 2008 and has been
used for studies through a U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM) ISR Analy-
sis, Integrated Demonstrations and Experimentation Cooperative Research and
Development Agreement (CRADA) and is currently being used in support of the
Operationally Responsive Space Office and the Missile Defense Agency for capabil-
16Kurt Dittmer, Advanced Programs and Technology, Advanced Projects Director, Northrop Grum-
man Corporation. "Layered ISR Architecture Analysis, Collection Capability Discussion." Presentation
to the committee, January 5, 2012.
17NGC. 2012. "Layered Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) Architecture Analysis."
Point paper. Written communication to the committee.
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A pp e n d i x C 127
TABLE C-1 Description of the Layered ISR Capabilities Effectiveness Tool (CET), with
Product and Benefits, Employed by the Northrop Grumman Corporation
Tool Name Category Tool Product Benefits
CET: Architecture Simulation Top-level ISR force mix assessment tool
Layered ISR Analysis to guide physics-based analysis. Orders of
Capabilities magnitude faster than current simulation
Effectiveness Tool tools. Can be used with many physics-based
tools (e.g., STK, EADSIM, BLUESIM).
NOTE: For a more complete list of tools used by both government and industry, see the full text of
Appendix C.
SOURCE: Northrop Grumman Corporation. 2012. Written communication. Response to inquiry from the
committee.
ity trade-offs.18 Table C-1 describes the tool employed by NGC and its products
and benefits.
The CET is an ISR tool when considering all costs for a specific force mix.
Typical inputs from Air Force stakeholders include (1) theater and area of op-
erations; (2) mission domains and phases of war; (3) Commander's intent (type
and quality of required sensor information by target) and target prioritizations;
(4) Intel-developed target collection requirements; (5) ISR platforms and satellite
constellations, including system performance and sensor capabilities; and (6) sys-
tem costs. Typical output of the layered ISR tool suite includes (1) all viable force
mix solutions; (2) system-of-systems domain, phase, and scenario effectiveness
assessment; (3) domain, phase, and scenario capability gaps; (4) system-of-systems
costs-effectiveness assessment for life cycle and operations; and (5) optimized orbit
locations based on unique system-of-systems solution and platform CONOPS.
In summary, the NGC physics-based analysis layered ISR tool suite was created
to improve decision making. It links the commander's intent (information desired)
to results, decisions, and, most significantly, costs. The tool suite has been validated
by USSTRATCOMJ-81 through USJFCOM CRADA and is currently being used to
support Air Force ORS trade-offs.
18Ibid.
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