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Committee on Examination of the Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and
Reconnaissance (ISR) Capability Planning and Analysis (CP&A) Process
Air Force Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of
the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard
for appropriate balance.
This is a report of work supported by Grant FA 9550-11-1-0126 between the U.S. Air Force and the
National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed
in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organiza-
tions or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25814-2
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25814-6
Limited copies of this report are Additional copies are available from:
available from:
Air Force Studies Board The National Academies Press
National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, NW
500 Fifth Street, NW Keck 360
Washington, DC 20001 Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-3111 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313
http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished
scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and
technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by
the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on
scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National
Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure
the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters
pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National
Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon
its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg
is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to as-
sociate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M.
Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON EXAMINATION OF THE AIR FORCE
INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE (ISR)
CAPABILITY PLANNING AND ANALYSIS (CP&A) PROCESS
BRIAN A. ARNOLD, Raytheon Company, Co-Chair
LAWRENCE J. DELANEY, Titan Corporation (retired), Co-Chair
COLLIN A. AGEE, U.S. Army
MELANI AUSTIN, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company
THOMAS J. BURNS, Science Applications International Corporation
PAMELA A. DREW, TASC
RAND H. FISHER, The Aerospace Corporation
KEITH R. HALL, Booz Allen Hamilton
LESLIE F. KENNE, LK Associates
ROBERT H. LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates
TERRY P. LEWIS, Raytheon Company
MICHAEL A. LONGORIA, The RAND Corporation
PAUL F. McMANAMON, Exciting Technology, LLC
MATT L. MLEZIVA, Wildwood Strategic Concepts, LLC
GERALD F. PERRYMAN, JR., Independent Consultant
JONATHAN M. SMITH, University of Pennsylvania
Staff
CARTER W. FORD, Study Director
GREGORY EYRING, Senior Program Officer
SARAH M. CAPOTE, Research Associate
ZEIDA PATMON, Program Associate
v
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AIR FORCE STUDIES BOARD
GREGORY S. MARTIN, GS Martin Consulting, Chair
PAMELA A. DREW, TASC, Vice Chair
BRIAN A. ARNOLD, Raytheon Company
CLAUDE M. BOLTON, JR., Defense Acquisition University
STEVEN R.J. BRUECK, University of New Mexico
THOMAS J. BURNS, Science Applications International Corporation
FRANK J. CAPPUCCIO, Cappuccio and Associates, LLC
DONALD C. FRASER, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory (retired)
MICHAEL J. GIANELLI, The Boeing Company (retired)
DANIEL E. HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc.
ROBERT H. LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates
NANCY G. LEVESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute
LESTER L. LYLES, The Lyles Group
MATT L. MLEZIVA, Wildwood Strategic Concepts, LLC
C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Pranalytica, Inc.
GERALD F. PERRYMAN, JR., Independent Consultant
RICHARD V. REYNOLDS, The VanFleet Group, LLC
J. DANIEL STEWART, University of Tennessee
REBECCA WINSTON, Winston Strategic Management Consulting
Staff
TERRY J. JAGGERS, Director
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Deputy Director
DIONNA C. ALI, Senior Program Assistant
JESSICA R. BROKENBURR, Financial Assistant
SARAH M. CAPOTE, Research Associate
GREGORY EYRING, Senior Program Officer
CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer
CHRIS JONES, Financial Manager
ZEIDA PATMON, Program Associate
MARGUERITE E. SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator
DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer
vi
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Preface
Prior to 2009 the U.S. Air Force did not have a comprehensive approach for
investing in and acquiring intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) ca-
pabilities. In 2009, the Air Force developed and implemented the ISR Flight Plan
to focus Air Force needs on future ISR capabilities and has subsequently renamed
this approach Capability Planning and Analysis (CP&A), which shares character-
istics of, but does not equate to, the Air Force development planning process.1 In
2011, the Air Force requested that the National Research Council (NRC), under the
auspices of the Air Force Studies Board (AFSB), undertake a study to improve this
process, specifically to provide the Air Force foundational analytics to aid decision
making, especially in light of overall future defense spending. In response to this
request, the NRC established the Committee on Examination of the Air Force ISR
CP&A Process. Biographical information for the committee members is provided
in Appendix A. The terms of reference for the study are presented in Box 1-1 in
Chapter 1.
The AFSB was established in 1996 as a unit of the NRC at the request of the U.S.
Air Force. The AFSB brings to bear broad military, industrial, and academic scien-
tific, engineering, and management expertise on Air Force technical challenges and
other issues of importance to senior Air Force leaders. The board discusses potential
studies of interest, develops and frames study tasks, ensures proper project plan-
ning, suggests potential committee members and reviewers for reports produced
by fully independent ad hoc study committees, and convenes meetings to examine
strategic issues. The board members were not asked to endorse the committee's
conclusions or recommendations, nor did they review the final draft of this report
1U.S. Air Force. 2010. Development Planning Guide. Wright-Patterson Air Force Base: Air Force
Materiel Command Directorate of Intelligence and Requirements. June.
vii
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viii Preface
before its release, although board members with appropriate expertise may be
nominated to serve as formal members of study committees or as report reviewers.
The committee thanks the many people who provided it with information for
the study, including the guest speakers shown in Appendix B, their organizations,
and supporting staff members; and others, including the study sponsors Dr. Steven
Walker, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Science, Technology, and
Engineering, and Lt Gen Larry James, Deputy Chief of Staff for ISR, and their staff
members.
Brian A. Arnold, Co-Chair
Lawrence J. Delaney, Co-Chair
Committee on Examination of the Air Force
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance
(ISR) Capability Planning and Analysis (CP&A)
Process
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures ap-
proved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose
of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will
assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to
ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and
responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript
remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to
thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
William P. Delaney, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory,
Ronald P. Fuchs, Independent Consultant,
Richard L. Garwin, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center,
Mark Lewis, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute,
Anthony Metoyer, The Boeing Company,
Thomas E. Romesser, Northrop Grumman Corporation (retired),
Peter B. Teets, U.S. Air Force/National Reconnaissance Office (retired), and
Alan R. Washburn, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments
and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommenda-
tions, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review
ix
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x Acknowledgment of Reviewers
of this report was overseen by Julia M. Phillips, Sandia National Laboratories, and
Robert J. Hermann, U.S. Air Force/National Reconnaissance Office (retired). Ap-
pointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain
that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with
institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered.
Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring
committee and the institution.
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Contents
SUMMARY1
1 INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE
CHALLENGES FACING THE AIR FORCE 9
Introduction, 9
Committee Formation and Terms of Reference, 11
Study Approach, 12
Scenarios That May Guide Air Force ISR Force-Planning Processes, 13
Regionally Specific (Traditional) Scenarios, 14
Global (Non-Traditional) Scenarios, 20
Homeland Security-Based Scenarios, 21
Organization of the Report, 23
2 THE CURRENT STATE OF THE AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE,
SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE INVESTMENT
PLANNING PROCESS 24
Introduction, 24
Historical Development of the Air Force ISR Planning Process, 29
The ISR Flight Plan, 31
The Core Function Lead Integrator Construct, 33
The Current Air Force ISR Capability Planning and Analysis Process, 34
The Core Function Lead Integrator Process, 36
Space Superiority and Cyberspace Superiority Core Function
Master Plans, 39
xi
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xii Contents
Integration of Air Force Core Function Master Plans, 41
ISR Capability Planning and Analysis and Core Function Master Plan
Link with Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution, 41
Linkages Between the Air Force and the Intelligence Community, 42
Findings, 43
Concluding Thoughts, 45
3 EXAMPLES OF PROCESSES EMPLOYED BY GOVERNMENT AND
INDUSTRY FOR PROVIDING CAPABILITY PLANNING
AND ANALYSIS 47
Introduction, 47
Examples of Government Processes for Providing Capability Planning and
Analysis, 47
U.S. Army, 48
U.S. Navy, 52
Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, 55
Examples of Industry Processes for Providing Capability Planning and
Analysis, 59
Booz Allen Hamilton, 59
TASC, 61
RadiantBlue, Inc., 67
Concluding Thoughts, 72
4 TOWARD AN ENHANCED AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE,
SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE CAPABILITY PLANNING
AND ANALYSIS PROCESS 74
Introduction, 74
Recommendations, 74
Desired Attributes of an Enterprise-Wide Intelligence, Surveillance, and
Reconnaissance Capability Planning and Analysis Process, 77
Proposed Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance
Capability Planning and Analysis Process, 80
Problem Definition and Approach, 80
Needs Analysis, 84
Multi-resolution Gap Analysis, 86
Solution Analysis, 91
Concluding Thoughts, 94
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Contents xiii
APPENDIXES
A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 97
B List of Committee Meetings, Presenters, and Participating Organizations 106
C Supplement to Chapter 3: Descriptions of Additional Organizational
CP&A Processes and Tools 113
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Acronyms
A2/AD anti-access/area denial
ACC Air Combat Command
ACL Achievable Capabilities List
AF Air Force
AF/A2 Deputy Chief of Staff of the Air Force for ISR
AFCS Air Force Corporate Structure
AFI Air Force Instruction
AFISRA Air Force ISR Agency
AFMC Air Force Materiel Command
AFROC Air Force Requirements Oversight Council
AFSPC Air Force Space Command
AOA analysis of alternatives
AOC Air Operations Center
APPG annual planning and programming guidance
ARFORGEN Army Force Generation
BA Battlespace Awareness
BA CIB Battlespace Awareness Capabilities Integration Board
BAH Booz Allen Hamilton
BAPA Battlespace Awareness and Portfolio Assessment
BCT Brigade Combat Teams
BES Budget Estimate Submission
BMDS Ballistic Missile Defense System
xv
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xvi Acronyms
C2 command and control
C4I command, control, communications, computers, and
intelligence
CA&P capability assessment and planning
CADD Capability Area Deep Dive
CAPE Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation
CART Capabilities Analysis Requirements Tool
CASA Communications Architecture Systems Assessor
CBA Capabilities-Based Assessment
CBP capability-based planning
CBPfM Capabilities-Based Portfolio Management
CDD Capability Description Document
CDRUSSTRATCOM Commander, U.S. Strategic Command
CET Capabilities Effectiveness Tool
CFLI Core Function Lead Integrator
CFMP Core Function Master Plan
CJCS Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
CJCSI Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction
CNO Chief of Naval Operations
COCOM Combatant Command
COINcounterinsurgency
COMINT communications intelligence
CONOPS concept of operations
CoP community of practice
COTS commercial off-the-shelf
CP&A Capability Planning and Analysis
CPM Capability Portfolio Manager
CRD Capabilities Requirements Document
CRRA Capability Review and Risk Assessment
CSA Coalition Situational Awareness
CSAF Chief of Staff of the Air Force
DAWG Deputy's Advisory Working Group
DCGS Distributed Common Ground Station
DCR DOTMLPF Change Recommendation
DMZ Demilitarized Zone
DNI Director of National Intelligence
DoD Department of Defense
DOTMLPF Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership
and Education, Personnel and Facilities
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Acronyms xvii
DOTMLPF-P Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership
and Education, Personnel, Facilities, and Policy
DOT_LPF non-material analysis
DPRK Democratic People's Republic of Korea
DRU Direct Reporting Unit
E/CCA Element/Component Characterizations for Analysis
EEI essential elements of information
EFDS Expeditionary Force Development System
ELINT electronics intelligence
EMD Engineering and Manufacturing Development
EO electro-optical (imaging)
ESA electronically scanned array
FCB Functional Capabilities Board
FOA Field Operating Agency
FY Fiscal Year
FYDP Future Years Defense Program
GAO Government Accountability Office
GIISR Global Integrated ISR
GMTI ground moving target indicator
GOTS government off-the-shelf
HAF Headquarters (U.S.) Air Force
HLS Homeland Security
HIS hyperspectral imaging
HUMINT human intelligence
IC intelligence community
ICD Initial Capabilities Document
IED improvised explosive device
IPL integrated priority list
IRinfrared
IROC Intelligence Readiness Operations Capability
ISAR Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar
ISCA Integrated Sensor Coverage Area
ISR intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
ISR-CART ISR Capabilities Analysis Requirements Tool
ITW integrated tactical warning
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xviii Acronyms
JBA Joint Battlespace Awareness
JCA Joint Capability Area
JCIDS Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System
JFC Joint Functional Concept
JFCC Joint Functional Component Command
JOC Joint Operations Center; Joint Operating Concept
JROC Joint Requirements Oversight Council
JTF Joint Task Force
JUON Joint Urgent Operational Need
JWICS Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System
M&S modeling and simulation
MAJCOM Major Command
MCO Major Combat Operations
MDA Milestone Decision Authority; Missile Defense Agency
MGA Multi-resolution Gap Analysis
MI Military Intelligence
MIP Military Intelligence Program
MO Mission Overwatch
MOE measures of effectiveness
MOP measures of performance
MOU measures of utility
MRA Multi-Resolution Analysis
MSA modeling, simulation, and analysis
MSI multispectral imager
MTI Moving Target Indicator
NCDP Naval Capabilities Development Process
NGA National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
NGC Northrop Grumman Corporation
NIIRS National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scale
NIP National Intelligence Program
NMS National Military Strategy
NRC National Research Council
NRO National Reconnaissance Office
NSA National Security Agency
NTISR non-traditional ISR
OCO Overseas Contingency Operation(s)
ORS Operationally Responsive Space
OSD Office of the Secretary of Defense
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Acronyms xix
OUSD(AT&L) Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,
Technology, and Logistics
OUSD(I) Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence
PAA Persistent Area Assessment
PCL Prioritized Capability List
PCPAD planning and direction, collection, processing
and exploitation, analysis and production, and
dissemination
PDA Problem Definition and Approach
PED processing, exploitation, and dissemination
Pk probability of kill
PLA People's Liberation Army
POC point of contact
POM Program Objective Memorandum
PoR Program of Record
PP&R Portfolios, Programs, and Resources
PPBES planning, programming, budgeting, and execution
system
QDR Quadrennial Defense Review
QRC Quick Reaction Capabilities
R&D research and development
RCS radar cross section
RMD resource management decision
ROK Republic of Korea
RPA remotely piloted aircraft
SAR synthetic aperture radar
SCADA supervisory control and data acquisition
SCF Service Core Function
SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment
SEAS System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation
SECAF Secretary of the Air Force
SECDEF Secretary of Defense
SETA Systems Engineering and Technical Assistance
SID Situation Development
SIGINT signals intelligence
SIPRnet Secret Internet Protocol Router Network
SLRG Senior Level Review Group
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xx Acronyms
SMC/XR Space and Missile Systems Center, Directorate of
Development Planning
SME subject matter expert
SOAP Satellite Orbit Analysis Program
SSDR security system dynamically reconfigurable
STK Satellite Tool KitŪ
SYSSIM System Simulation
TASC The Analytical Sciences Corporation
TCPED Tasking, Collection, Processing, Exploitation, and
Dissemination
TOA Total Obligation Authority
TOR terms of reference
TPED tasking, processing, exploitation, and dissemination
UGS unattended ground sensor
UON urgent operational need
USAF United States Air Force
USCYBERCOM U.S. Cyber Command
USN United States Navy
USSTRATCOM U.S. Strategic Command
VCJCS Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
VCSAF Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force
WIP Warfighter Involvement Process
WMD weapons of mass destruction
Wxweather
