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Continuing
Innovation
IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Committee on Depicting Innovation in Information Technology
Computer Science and Telecommunications Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research
Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy
of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen
for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under sponsor award number IIS-0840364.
Any opinions expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
agencies and organizations that provided support for the project.
Figure 1 designed by Dmitry Krasny, Deka Design. Text layout by Estelle Miller, The National Academies Press.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25962-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25962-2
Copies of this report are available from
The National Academies Press
500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360
Washington, DC 20001
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http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their
use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy
has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J.
Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of
Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the
selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal
government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national
needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M.
Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of
eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the
public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional
charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care,
research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad
community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the
federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has
become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities.
The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and
Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON DEPICTING INNOVATION
IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
PETER LEE, Microsoft Research, Chair
MARK E. DEAN, IBM Corporation
DEBORAH L. ESTRIN, University of California, Los Angeles
JAMES T. KAJIYA, Microsoft Corporation
PRABHAKAR RAGHAVAN, Google, Inc.
ANDREW J. VITERBI, Viterbi Group, LLC
Staff
JON K. EISENBERG, CSTB Director
EMILY ANN MEYER, Study Director
SHENAE BRADLEY, Senior Program Assistant
iv
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COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD
ROBERT F. SPROULL, Oracle (retired), Chair
PRITHVIRAJ BANERJEE, Hewlett Packard Company
STEVEN M. BELLOVIN, Columbia University
JACK L. GOLDSMITH III, Harvard Law School
SEYMOUR E. GOODMAN, Georgia Institute of Technology
JON M. KLEINBERG, Cornell University
ROBERT KRAUT, Carnegie Mellon University
SUSAN LANDAU, Harvard University
PETER LEE, Microsoft Research
DAVID LIDDLE, U.S. Venture Partners
DAVID E. SHAW, D.E. Shaw Research
ALFRED Z. SPECTOR, Google, Inc.
JOHN STANKOVIC, University of Virginia
JOHN SWAINSON, Dell, Inc.
PETER SZOLOVITS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PETER J. WEINBERGER, Google, Inc.
ERNEST J. WILSON, University of Southern California
KATHERINE YELICK, University of California, Berkeley
Staff
JON K. EISENBERG, Director
RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager
HERBERT S. LIN, Chief Scientist
LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Senior Program Officer
EMILY ANN MEYER, Program Officer
VIRGINIA BACON TALATI, Associate Program Officer
ENITA A. WILLIAMS, Associate Program Officer
SHENAE BRADLEY, Senior Program Assistant
ERIC WHITAKER, Senior Program Assistant
v
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Preface
In 1995, the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Computer Science and Telecommunications
Board (CSTB) produced the report Evolving the High Performance Computing and Communications
Initiative to Support the Nation’s Information Infrastructure.1 A graphic in that report, often called the
“tire tracks” diagram because of its appearance, produced an extraordinary response by clearly
linking investments in academic and industry research to the ultimate creation of new informa-
tion technology (IT) industries with more than $1 billion in annual revenue.2 Used in presentations
to Congress and executive branch decision makers and discussed broadly in the research and
innovation policy communities, the tire tracks figure dispelled the assumption that the commer-
cially successful IT industry is self-sufficient, underscoring how much industry instead builds on
government-funded university research, sometimes through long incubation periods of years and
even decades. It also compellingly illustrates the complex nature of research in the field and the
interdependencies between various subfields of computing and communications research.
The figure was updated in the 2002 CSTB report Information Technology Research, Innovation,
and E-Government and again in the 2003 CSTB report Innovation in Information Technology, largely
through the addition of tracks in important new areas such as entertainment and data mining. The
2003 report also distilled key lessons from eight prior CSTB studies about the nature of research in
information technology—including the unpredictability of and synergy among research results; the
roles of government, industry, and academia; and the social returns from research. A 2009 report,
Assessing the Impacts of Changes in the Information Technology R&D Ecosystem: Retaining Leadership in
an Increasingly Global Environment, reproduced the 2003 update to the diagram and explored many
of the related themes.
Computing research and its impacts have continued to evolve and blossom in the years since
the 2003 version of the tire tracks figure was published. With the support of the National Science
1 All NRC/CSTB reports referred to in this preface were published by the National Academy Press/The National Academies
Press, Washington, D.C., in the year indicated.
2 IT advances have of course also had profound impacts on nearly every major industry sector, not just IT industries; these
indirect effects were not the focus of the present project.
vi
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Statement of Task
A small committee will update a previously issued figure depicting the role that government-supported,
academic, and industrial research plays in the formation of major new IT capabilities (as measured by the
emergence of billion-dollar information technology industries). The update will introduce additional billion-
dollar industries and other developments as appropriate. A brief report will highlight the updated tire tracks
figure and summarize key points from past CSTB reports related to the results of IT research; the nature and
success of the U.S. research partnership among government, industry, and universities; economic payoffs of
investments in research; and the evolution of the U.S. IT R&D ecosystem. The report will not contain any
new findings and recommendations.
Foundation, CSTB undertook a project to prepare an update. The task of the Committee on Depict-
ing Innovation in Information Technology was threefold (see box): (1) to reconsider important
research areas and significant billion-dollar-plus IT industries that had emerged since the 2003
report, (2) to reconsider how best to characterize and depict these investments and impacts, and
(3) to recap and update the material in the 2003 report that accompanied the tire tracks figure and
that presents related lessons on the impact of research on innovation in information technology.
In updating the content of the figure, the committee drew on the earlier CSTB work as well as
the committee’s own knowledge of key research contributions and results, and also obtained input
on these from a number of computing researchers whose contributions are acknowledged below.
The committee conducted meetings by teleconference and collaborated extensively by e-mail to
develop the present report. In reconsidering the design of the figure, the committee explored several
design approaches, some quite different from that in the original 1995 figure, and worked with a
designer to explore alternatives. Ultimately, the committee decided to retain many features of the
original tire tracks while somewhat changing the overall structure and adding some elements as
outlined in the first section of this report.
The new figure is accompanied by a brief text based in large part on prior CSTB reports. Unless
otherwise indicated in the notes, the primary source is the 2003 report Innovation in Information
Technology. Where appropriate, the committee has updated the text to provide more current infor-
mation and recent examples. For readability, direct extracts from earlier CSTB work are not set in
quotation marks.
The committee thanks the following researchers who provided input on specific technical
and research questions: Yossi Azar, Victor Bahl, Suman Banerjee, Doug Burger, Surajit Chaudhuri,
Carlos Guestrin, Hauges Hoppe, Andrew Hopper, Eric Horvitz, Butler Lampson, James Landay,
Paul Larson, Ed Lazowska, James Lee, David Lomet, Beth Mynatt, David Patterson, Yuval Peres,
and Mani Srivastava. We also are sincerely appreciative of the services and leadership of Eugene
Spafford, chair of the committee from September 2009 to January 2011. Finally, the committee
thanks Dmitry Krasny, Deka Design, for his expert design assistance in realizing the committee’s
vision for Figure 1.
Peter Lee, Chair
Committee on Depicting Innovation in Information Technology
vii
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspec-
tives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research
Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid
and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and
responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential
to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for
their review of this report:
Peter Freeman, Georgia Institute of Technology
Susan Graham, University of California, Berkeley
Laura Haas, IBM Almaden Research Center
David Patterson, University of California, Berkeley
Jennifer Rexford, Princeton University
Robert F. Sproull, Oracle (retired)
John Stankovic, University of Virginia
Patrick Winston, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Katherine Yelick, University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and sug-
gestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see
the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Joseph
Traub, Columbia University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for
making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with
institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility
for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
viii
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Contents
The Impact of Information Technology 1
Universities, Industry, and Government: A Complex Partnership Yielding 2
Innovation and Leadership
Key Lessons About the Nature of Research in Information Technology 9
Looking Ahead 16
Notes 18
Appendix A Short Biographies of Committee Members 24
Appendix B Transfers of Ideas and People and Other Impacts Since 2003 27
Added to Figure 1
Appendix C Examples of Impacts from Algorithms Research 32
ix
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