References

AMS 2000. American Meteorological Society, Glossary of Meteorology, Second Edition. Boston, MA: Allen Press.

AMS 2008. Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89.

Applequist, S., G. E. Gahrs, R. L. Pfeffer, and X.-F. Niu 2002. Comparison of Methodologies for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 17(4):783-799.

Atwood, L. E., and A. M. Major 1998. Exploring the “Cry Wolf” Hypothesis. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 16:279-302.

Baker, W. E., G. D. Emmitt, F. Robertson, R. M. Atlas, J. E. Molinari, D. A. Bowdle, J. Paegle, R. M. Hardesty, R. T. Menzies, T. N. Krishnamurti, R. A. Brown, M. J. Post, J. R. Anderson, A. C. Lorenc, and J. McElroy 1995. Lidar-Measured Winds from Space: Key Component for Weather and Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76(6):869-888.

Bremnes, J. B. 2004. Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation in Terms of Quantiles Using NWP Model Output. Monthly Weather Review 132(1):338-347.

Brunet, G., M. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, G. N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B. Mills, R. Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake, and J. Shukla 2010. Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(10):1397-1406.

Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Z. Wei, and Y. J. Zhu 2005. A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems. Monthly Weather Review 133(5):1076-1097.

Carter, G. M. 2011. Hydrologic Forecasting Enhancements and Challenges Associated with the National Weather Service Modernization Program. Presentation to the Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service’s Modernization Program. Irvine, CA, March 8, 2011.

Cline, D. 2012. National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory: Current Activities and Challenges. Presentation to Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service’s Modernization Program. Miami, FL, February 9, 2012.

Dow, K., and S. L. Cutter 1998. Crying Wolf: Repeat Responses to Hurricane Evacuation Orders. Coastal Management 26:237-252.

Dutton, J. A. 2002. Opportunities and Priorities in a New Era for Weather and Climate Services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(9):1303-1311.

Errico, R. M. 2007. Interpretations of an Adjoint-Derived Observational Impact Measure. Tellus A 59(2):273-276.

Fraley, C., A. E. Raftery, and T. Gneiting 2010. Calibrating Multimodel Forecast Ensembles with Exchangeable and Missing Members Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review 138(1):190-202.

Froude, L. S. R. 2010. TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Different Ensemble Prediction Systems. Weather and Forecasting 25(3):819-836.

Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. I. Hodges 2007. The Prediction of Extratropical Storm Tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems. Monthly Weather Review 135(7):2545-2567.

GAO 1995. Meteorological Satellites: Letter to the Honorable C.W. Bill Young. GAO/NSIAD-95-87R. Washington, D.C.

GAO 1997. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Follow-up on Weather Service Modernization and NOAA Corps Issues—Letter to the Honorable Ken Calvert. GAO/ AIMD/GGD-97-75R. Washington, D.C.

Gelaro, R., R. H. Langland, S. Pellerin, and R. Todling 2010. The THORPEX Observation Impact Intercomparison Experiment. Monthly Weather Review 138(11):4009-4025.

Gelaro, R., Y. Zhu, and R. M. Errico 2007. Examination of various-order adjoint-based approximations of observation impact. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 16(6):685-692.

GEO 2005. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). 10-Year Implementation Plan Reference Document. Group on Earth Observations. The Netherlands: ESA Publications Division.

Gigerenzer, G., R. Hertwig, E. Van Den Broek, B. Fasolo, and K. Katsikopoulos, V. 2005. A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? Risk Analysis 25(3):623-629.



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 59
References AMS 2000. American Meteorological Society, Glossary of Dow, K., and S. L. Cutter 1998. Crying Wolf: Repeat Responses to Meteorology, Second Edition. Boston, MA: Allen Press. Hurricane Evacuation Orders. Coastal Management 26:237-252. AMS 2008. Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Dutton, J. A. 2002. Opportunities and Priorities in a New Era Forecasts: An Information Statement of the American Meteoro- for Weather and Climate Services. Bulletin of the American logical Society. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89. Meteorological Society 83(9):1303-1311. Applequist, S., G. E. Gahrs, R. L. Pfeffer, and X.-F. Niu 2002. Errico, R. M. 2007. Interpretations of an Adjoint-Derived Obser- Comparison of Methodologies for Probabilistic Quantitative vational Impact Measure. Tellus A 59(2):273-276. Precipitation Forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 17(4):783- Fraley, C., A. E. Raftery, and T. Gneiting 2010. Calibrating Multi 799. model Forecast Ensembles with Exchangeable and Missing Atwood, L. E., and A. M. Major 1998. Exploring the "Cry Wolf " Members Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Hypothesis. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Review 138(1):190-202. Disasters 16:279-302. Froude, L. S. R. 2010. TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction Baker, W. E., G. D. Emmitt, F. Robertson, R. M. Atlas, J. E. of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Differ- Molinari, D. A. Bowdle, J. Paegle, R. M. Hardesty, R. T. ent Ensemble Prediction Systems. Weather and Forecasting Menzies, T. N. Krishnamurti, R. A. Brown, M. J. Post, J. R. 25(3):819-836. Anderson, A. C. Lorenc, and J. McElroy 1995. Lidar-Measured Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. I. Hodges 2007. The Pre- Winds from Space: Key Component for Weather and Climate diction of Extratropical Storm Tracks by the ECMWF and Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems. Monthly Weather Review 76(6):869-888. 135(7):2545-2567. Bremnes, J. B. 2004. Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation in GAO 1995. Meteorological Satellites: Letter to the Honorable Terms of Quantiles Using NWP Model Output. Monthly C.W. Bill Young. GAO/NSIAD-95-87R. Washington, D.C. Weather Review 132(1):338-347. GAO 1997. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Brunet, G., M. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, Follow-up on Weather Service Modernization and NOAA G. N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B. Mills, R. Morss, S. Corps Issues--Letter to the Honorable Ken Calvert. GAO/ Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake, and J. Shukla 2010. Collabo- AIMD/GGD-97-75R. Washington, D.C. ration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Gelaro, R., R. H. Langland, S. Pellerin, and R. Todling 2010. The Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction. Bulletin of the American THORPEX Observation Impact Intercomparison Experiment. Meteorological Society 91(10):1397-1406. Monthly Weather Review 138(11):4009-4025. Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Z. Wei, Gelaro, R., Y. Zhu, and R. M. Errico 2007. Examination of various- and Y. J. Zhu 2005. A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and order adjoint-based approximations of observation impact. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems. Monthly Weather Meteorologische Zeitschrift 16(6):685-692. Review 133(5):1076-1097. GEO 2005. Global Earth Observation System of Systems Carter, G. M. 2011. Hydrologic Forecasting Enhancements and (GEOSS). 10-Year Implementation Plan Reference Docu- Challenges Associated with the National Weather Service ment. Group on Earth Observations. The Netherlands: ESA Modernization Program. Presentation to the Committee on the Publications Division. Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Gigerenzer, G., R. Hertwig, E. Van Den Broek, B. Fasolo, and Program. Irvine, CA, March 8, 2011. K. Katsikopoulos, V. 2005. A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow: Cline, D. 2012. National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Fore- Current Activities and Challenges. Presentation to Committee casts? Risk Analysis 25(3):623-629. on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modern- ization Program. Miami, FL, February 9, 2012. 59

OCR for page 59
60 WEATHER SERVICES FOR THE NATION Glahn, H. R., and D. A. Lowry 1972. The Use of Model Output Mass, C., J. Baars, S. Joslyn, J. Pyle, P. Tewson, D. Jones, T. Gneiting, Statistics (MOS) in Objective Weather Forecasting. Journal of A. Raftery, J. M. Sloughter, and C. Fraley 2009. PROBCAST: A Applied Meteorology 11(8):1203-1211. Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts. Bulletin Gneiting, T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld, and T. Goldman 2005. of the American Meteorological Society 90(7):1009-1014. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model McLaughlin, D., D. Pepyne, B. Philips, J. Kurose, M. Zink, D. Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation. Monthly Westbrook, E. Lyons, E. Knapp, A. Hopf, A. Defonzo, R. Weather Review 133(5):1098-1118. Contreras, T. Djaferis, E. Insanic, S. Frasier, V. Chandrasekar, Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci 1997. Verification of EtaRSM F. Junyent, N. Bharadwaj, Y. Wang, Y. Liu, B. Dolan, K. Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review Droegemeier, J. Brotzge, M. Xue, K. Kloesel, K. Brewster, 125(6):1312-1327. F. Carr, S. Cruz-Pol, K. Hondl, and P. Kollias 2009. Short- Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci 1998. Evaluation of EtaRSM Wavelength Technology and the Potential for Distributed Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts. Monthly Weather Networks of Small Radar Systems. Bulletin of the American Review 126(3):711-724. Meteorological Society 90(12):1797-1817. Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and X. Wei 2004. Ensemble Refore- Nadav-Greenberg, L., and S. Joslyn 2009. Uncertainty Forecasts casting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retro- Improve Decision-Making Among Non-Experts. Journal of spective Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 132(6):1434-1447. Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making 3(3):209-227. Harnisch, F., and M. Weissmann 2010. Sensitivity of Typhoon Nadav-Greenberg, L., S. Joslyn, and M. U. Taing 2008. The Effect Forecasts to Different Subsets of Targeted Dropsonde Observa- of Weather Forecast Uncertainty Visualization on Decision tions. Monthly Weather Review 138(7):2664-2680. Making. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making Hays, P., M. Dehring, L. Fisk, P. Tchoryk, I. Dors, J. Ryan, J. 2(1):24-47. Wang, M. Hardesty, B. Gentry, and F. Hovis 2005. Space- NOAA 2007. Policy on Partnerships in the Provision of Envi- based Doppler Winds LIDAR: A Vital National Need. White ronmental Information. NAO 216-112. Washington, D.C., Paper in response to National Research Council Decadal Study Office of the Chief Administrative Officer, National Oceanic Request for Information. and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce. Hirschberg, P. A., E. Abrams, A. Bleistein, W. Bua, L. D. Monache, NRC 1996. Toward a New National Weather Service: Assess- T. W. Dulong, J. E. Gaynor, B. Glahn, T. M. Hamill, J. A. ment of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Operations and Hansen, D. C. Hilderbrand, R. N. Hoffman, B. H. Morrow, B. Services. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Philips, J. Sokich, and N. Stuart 2011. A Weather and Climate NRC 2000. From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Numerical Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death. Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Information. Bulletin of Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. the American Meteorological Society 92(12):1651-1666. NRC 2003a. Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and IPCC 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters Climate Services. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of NRC 2003b. Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment: Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Accelerating the Transition from Research to Operations. Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. NRC 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Com- Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. municating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge Uni- and Climate Forecasts. Washington, D.C.: National Academies versity Press. Press. Joslyn, S. and J. E. LeClerc 2012. Uncertainty Forecasts Improve NRC 2009. Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks. Washington, D.C.: Forecast Error. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied National Academies Press. 18(1):126-140. NRC 2010. When Weather Matters: Science and Services to Meet Katz, R. W., and A. H. Murphy, eds. 1997. Economic Value of Critical Societal Needs. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Weather and Climate Forecasts. New York: Cambridge Uni- Press. versity Press. NRC 2012a. The National Weather Service Modernization and Krzysztofowicz, R. 2001. The Case for Probabilistic Forecasting in Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Wash- Hydrology. Journal of Hydrology 249(14):2-9. ington, D.C.: National Academies Press. Lazo, J. K., M. Lawson, P. H. Larsen, and D. M. Waldman 2011. NRC 2012b. Urban Meteorology: Forecasting, Monitoring, and U.S. Economic Sensitivity to Weather Variability. Bulletin of the Meeting Users' Needs. Washington, D.C.: National Academies American Meteorological Society 92(6):709-720. Press. Lazo, J. K., R. E. Morss, and J. L. Demuth 2009. 300 Billion Served: NSAB 2011. Towards Open Weather and Climate Services. A Sources, Perceptions, Uses, and Values of Weather Forecasts. report from the NOAA Science Advisory Board, developed Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(6):785-798. by the Environmental Information Services Working Group. Mass, C. 2012. Nowcasting: The Promise of New Technologies December 2011. of Communication, Modeling, and Observation. Bulletin of the NWS 2004. Policy on Partnerships in the Provision of Environ- American Meteorological Society 93(6):797-809. mental Information. Washington, DC.

OCR for page 59
REFERENCES 61 NWS 2011a. Service Assessment: The Historic Tornadoes of April Stern, R. D., and R. Coe 1982. The Use of Rainfall Models in d 2011. Silver Spring, MD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agricultural Planning. Agricultural Meteorology 26(1):35-50. Administration, Department of Commerce. Stoffelen, A., J. Pailleux, E. Klln, J. M. Vaughan, L. Isaksen, P. NWS 2011b. NWS Central Region Service Assessment. Joplin, Flamant, W. Wergen, E. Andersson, H. Schyberg, A. Culoma, Missouri, Tornado--May 22, 2011. Silver Spring, MD, R. Meynart, M. Endemann, and P. Ingmann 2005. The Atmo- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Depart- spheric Dynamics Mission for Global Wind Field Measure- ment of Commerce. ment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86(1):73-87. NWS 2012. Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap. Draft 1.0. Silver Sullivan, K. D. 2011. Testimony. Hearing: From NPOESS to JPSS: Spring, MD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- An Update on the Nation's Restructured Polar Weather Satellite tion, Department of Commerce. Program. Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight and Palmer, T. N. 2002. The Economic Value of Ensemble Forecasts as Subcommittee on Energy and Environment; Committee on a Tool for Risk Assessment: From Days to Decades. Quarterly Science and Technology; U.S. House of Representatives. Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128(581):747-774. Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, R. E. Morss, S. J. Majumdar, B. J. Etherton, Proenza, W. 2011. Your National Weather Service Providing All- and C. H. Bishop 2000. The Effect of Targeted Dropsonde Hazards Decision Support for Protection of Life and for the Observations during the 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Economic Well Being of a Nation. Program, Presentation to Program. Monthly Weather Review 128(10):3520-3537. the Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Thorarinsdottir, T. L., and T. Gneiting 2010. Probabilistic Forecasts Service's Modernization Program. Irvine, CA, March 7, 2011. of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics by Using Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski Heteroscedastic Censored Regression. Journal of the Royal 2005. Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics is Society) 173(2):371-388. Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review 133(5):1155-1174. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay 1993. Ensemble Forecasting at NMC: The Roulston, M. S., and L. A. Smith 2003. Combining Dynamical and Generation of Perturbations. Bulletin of the American Meteoro- Statistical Ensembles. Tellus A 55(1):16-30. logical Society 74(12):2317-2330. Shapiro, M., J. Shukla, G. Brunet, C. Nobre, M. Bland, R. Dole, U.S. Congress 2012. Consolidated and Further Continuing Appro K. Trenberth, R. Anthes, G. Asrar, L. Barrie, P. Bougeault, G. priations Act, 2012, Conference Report. P.L. 112-55, Report Brasseur, D. Burridge, A. Busalacchi, J. Caughey, D. Chen, J. 112-284. Church, T. Enomoto, B. Hoskins, . Hov, A. Laing, H. Le Wedam, G. B., L. A. McMurdie, and C. F. Mass 2009. Comparison Treut, J. Marotzke, G. McBean, G. Meehl, M. Miller, B. Mills, of Model Forecast Skill of Sea Level Pressure along the East J. Mitchell, M. Moncrieff, T. Nakazawa, H. Olafsson, T. Palmer, and West Coasts of the United States. Weather and Forecasting D. Parsons, D. Rogers, A. Simmons, A. Troccoli, Z. Toth, L. 24(3):843-854. Uccellini, C. Velden, and J. M. Wallace 2010. An Earth-System Weissmann, M., F. Harnisch, C.-C. Wu, P.-H. Lin, Y. Ohta, Prediction Initiative for the Twenty-First Century. Bulletin of the K. Yamashita, Y.-H. Kim, E.-H. Jeon, T. Nakazawa, and S. American Meteorological Society 91(10):1377-1388. Aberson 2010. The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data Shukla, J., R. Hagedorn, M. Miller, T. N. Palmer, B. Hoskins, J. on Typhoon Track and Midlatitude Forecasts. Monthly Weather Kinter, J. Marotzke, and J. Slingo 2009. Strategies: Revolution in Review 139(3):908-920. Climate Prediction Is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declara- Weissmann, M., R. H. Langland, C. Cardinali, P. M. Pauley, and tion at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. S. Rahm 2012. Influence of Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(2):175-178. Profiles near Typhoon Sinlaku on ECMWF and NOGAPS Shukla, J., T. N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Marotzke, M. Miller, and J. Slingo 2010. Toward a New Gen- 138(662):118-130. eration of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities. Wilks, D. S. 2009. Extending Logistic Regression to Provide Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(10):1407-1412. Full-Probability-Distribution MOS Forecasts. Meteorological Sloughter, J. M., T. Gneiting, and A. E. Raftery 2010. Probabi- Applications 16(3):361-368. listic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian WMO 1995. Resolution 40 (Cg-XII) WMO Policy and Practice Model Averaging. Journal of the American Statistical Association for the Exchange of Meteorological and Related Data and 105(489):25-35. Products Including Guidelines on Relationships in Commercial Sloughter, J. M., A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, and C. Fraley Meteorological Activities. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteo- 2007. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting rological Organization. Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Monthly Weather Review Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Richardson, and K. Mylne 2002. 135(9):3209-3220. The Economic Value of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts. Sorensen, J. H. 2000. Hazard Warning Systems: Review of 20 Years Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(1):73-83. of Progress. Natural Hazards Review 1:119-125. Spiegler, D. B. 2007. Community: The Private Sector in Meteorology--An Update. Bulletin of the American Meteoro- logical Society 88(8):1272-1275.

OCR for page 59