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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract DG133R-08-CO-0062 Task Order #12, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract NNX08AB07G, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. ATM-0809051, the Department of Energy under contract DE-SC0005113, and the U.S. intelligence community. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its subagencies.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
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COMMITTEE ON A NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ADVANCING CLIMATE MODELING
CHRIS BRETHERTON (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle
V. BALAJI, Princeton University, New Jersey
THOMAS DELWORTH, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas, Austin
JAMES A. EDMONDS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, Maryland
JAMES S. FAMIGLIETTI, University of California, Irvine
INEZ FUNG, University of California, Berkeley
JAMES J. HACK, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee
JAMES W. HURRELL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
DANIEL J. JACOB, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
JAMES L. KINTER III, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland
LAI-YUNG RUBY LEUNG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington
SHAWN MARSHALL, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada
WIESLAW MASLOWSKI, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
RICHARD B. ROOD, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
LARRY L. SMARR, University of California, San Diego
NRC Staff:
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
APRIL MELVIN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Policy Fellow, 2011
ALEXANDRA JAHN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Policy Fellow, 2012
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
RICHARD (RIT) CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia
GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
ANTHONY JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland
HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey
MICHAEL D. KING, University of Colorado, Boulder
JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin-Madison
ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
ROGER B. LUKAS, University of Hawaii, Honolulu
SUMANT NIGAM, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, Maryland
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, The University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMBERLY PRATHER, University of California, San Diego
RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, D.C.
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway
KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN T. SNOW, The University of Oklahoma, Norman
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer
KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
DANIEL MUTH, Postdoctoral Fellow
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Program Assistant
GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate
Preface
Global warming is a pivotal environmental and social issue of the 21st century. Its long time scales, diverse consequences, and direct ties to our global energyproduction infrastructure make it challenging for societies around the world to grapple with and threaten humanity’s ability to mount an effective response. This challenge is compounded by the complexity of the Earth-human system. The fundamental science of greenhouse gas-induced climate change is simple and compelling. However, genuine and important uncertainties remain (e.g., the response of clouds, ecosystems, and the polar regions) and need to be considered in developing scientifically based strategies for societal response to climate change.
As in most other areas of science and engineering, over the past 50 years, large numerical models have become an indispensable tool for climate science. They allow increased knowledge of individual physical processes to feed into better system-level simulations, which can be tested with observations of the system as a whole—not unlike simulating a new airplane design and testing it in a wind tunnel. Climate simulations benefit from using a finer mesh of grid points and include more interacting Earth-system processes; this requires the largest computers that scientists can obtain. The efficient use of large computers and the large data sets they develop requires increased support for software design and infrastructure—a major thread running through this report.
Climate modeling began in the United States. The United States continues to support a diversity of regional and global climate modeling efforts, now embedded within a vigorous international climate modeling scene. A rapidly expanding applications community is using climate model outputs for informing policy decisions and as input to other models and demands more detailed and reliable information. Increasingly, the needs of this community, as much as basic scientific questions, are driving the climate modeling enterprise in the United States and abroad.
As models, computing needs, and user needs become more complex, the U.S. climate modeling community will need to collaborate more tightly internally and with its users in order to be effective. Recognizing national traditions of multiagency funding and encouraging diversity and creativity, our long-term strategic vision emphasizes the nurturing of self-governance structures that reach between current climate mod-
eling efforts, coupled with investment in cutting-edge computing infrastructure of which a more unified climate modeling enterprise can take full advantage.
We would like to thank the numerous members of the climate modeling community who generously gave of their time to provide input during this study process. In particular, we would like to thank all of the speakers, workshop participants, interviewees, and reviewers (listed in the Acknowledgments). Finally, we would like to thank the National Research Council staff, without whom this report would not have been possible: Katie Thomas, Rob Greenway, Rita Gaskins, April Melvin, Alexandra Jahn, and Edward Dunlea.
Chris Bretherton, Chair
Committee on a National Strategy for
Advancing Climate Modeling
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Eric Barron, Florida State University, Tallahassee
Amy Braverman, NASA JPL, Los Angeles, California
Antonio Busalacchi, University of Maryland, College Park
Jack Dongarra, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Lisa Goddard, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York
Isaac M. Held, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
Wayne Higgins, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland
Anthony Leonard, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
John Michalakes, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
John Mitchell, UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Gavin Schmidt, NASA/Real Climate, New York, New York
Andrew Weaver, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Richard N. Wright, Practice, Education and Research for Sustainable Infrastructure, Washington, D.C.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views of the committee, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Robert Frosch, Harvard University, appointed by the NRC Report Review Committee, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.
Contents
2 Lessons from Previous Reports on Climate Modeling
PART 2: CURRENT ISSUES IN CLIMATE MODELING
3 Strategies for Developing Climate Models: Model Hierarchy, Resolution, and Complexity
5 Integrated Climate Observing System and Earth System Analysis
6 Characterizing, Quantifying, and Communicating Uncertainty
7 Climate Model Development Workforce
8 Relationship of U.S. Climate Modeling to Other International and National Efforts
9 Strategy for Operational Climate Modeling and Data Distribution
PART 3: STRATEGY FOR ADVANCING CLIMATE MODELING
10 Computational Infrastructure—Challenges and Opportunities
11 Synergies Between Weather and Climate Modeling
12 Interface with User and Educational Communities
13 Strategies for Optimizing U.S. Institutional Arrangements