Appendix B

Summaries of Workshop Presentations

Observed and Projected Changes in
Hydrometeorological Variables over
the Indian Himalayas

K. Krishna Kumar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

The Indian Himalayas can be divided into different sections: western, central, and eastern; this presentation focused on comparing and contrasting these regions. There is considerable complexity involved in observing changes over the Indian Himalayas. Most of the observations on projected changes in hydrometeorological variables are from the past 10-15 years, including the APHRODITE dataset, which has great promise. Most of the western Himalayas get precipitation in the winter, whereas the central region gets the most precipitation in the monsoon season. The eastern and central regions, dominated by the monsoon, show a decline in precipitation over the past ~50 years. The west does not show a trend in precipitation. Temperature, however, shows a general warming trend, over the last three decades in particular, but the seasonal monsoon is influential. Several researchers are collecting tree-ring data in India from the past 300-400 years in an attempt to reconstruct long-term climate record. In the western Himalaya, tree-ring chronologies indicate an increase in temperatures—in agreement with the temperature trends observed over the past 40-50 years in the western region. Trained models seem to capture end-of-century climatology well, giving hope for projecting into the future. Models indicate that in the near term (2020) the foothills show negative rainfall trends. However, further in the future (2050, 2080) it appears that the precipitation will be enhanced. Models show that the temperature trends will continue monotonically in the future (+2°C in 50 years), in agreement with the results from another model from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change AR4.

Regional Meteorology and Monsoon Dynamics:
Patterns, Changes, and Drivers of Change

Arnico K Panday, University of Virginia

The dominant precipitation patterns in the Himalayan region are summer monsoons (in the central and eastern half of the region), some winter rain and snow, and winter fog as a source of moisture. There are east-west variations and north-south variations, though the latter are not as great. Evidence shows that temperature is increasing more rapidly with altitude; however, there are fewer observation stations at higher elevations, leading to a potential data bias. Over the Ganges Basin, there is an increase in aerosol haze as well as an increase in fog. Snow cover has decreased, which has been particularly noted in 2010 and 2011. There is also clear evidence of glacial retreat in the area, though there are not many studies on how glacial melt affects regional precipitation. There are several drivers of change in the area: greenhouse gases, an increase in aerosols, and a sixfold increase in black carbon emissions. Main sources of aerosols are biofuels from wood cookstoves. Forest fires, urban pollution, and dust being blown from the Thar Desert to the southwest are also contributors. In the Annapurna region, there is a strong buildup of haze with heavy convection on the south



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Appendix B Summaries of Workshop Presentations Observed and Projected Changes in precipitation will be enhanced. Models show that the Hydrometeorological Variables over temperature trends will continue monotonically in the the Indian Himalayas future (+2C in 50 years), in agreement with the results K. Krishna Kumar, Indian Institute of Tropical from another model from the Inter-governmental Meteorology Panel on Climate Change AR4. The Indian Himalayas can be divided into different sections: western, central, and eastern; this presentation Regional Meteorology and Monsoon Dynamics: focused on comparing and contrasting these regions. Patterns, Changes, and Drivers of Change There is considerable complexity involved in observing Arnico K. Panday, University of Virginia changes over the Indian Himalayas. Most of the obser- vations on projected changes in hydrometeorological The dominant precipitation patterns in the Hima- variables are from the past 10-15 years, including the layan region are summer monsoons (in the central APHRODITE dataset, which has great promise. Most and eastern half of the region), some winter rain and of the western Himalayas get precipitation in the win- snow, and winter fog as a source of moisture. There ter, whereas the central region gets the most precipita- are east-west variations and north-south variations, tion in the monsoon season. The eastern and central though the latter are not as great. Evidence shows that regions, dominated by the monsoon, show a decline temperature is increasing more rapidly with altitude; in precipitation over the past ~50 years. The west however, there are fewer observation stations at higher does not show a trend in precipitation. Temperature, elevations, leading to a potential data bias. Over the however, shows a general warming trend, over the last Ganges Basin, there is an increase in aerosol haze as three decades in particular, but the seasonal monsoon is well as an increase in fog. Snow cover has decreased, influential. Several researchers are collecting tree-ring which has been particularly noted in 2010 and 2011. data in India from the past 300-400 years in an attempt There is also clear evidence of glacial retreat in the area, to reconstruct long-term climate record. In the western though there are not many studies on how glacial melt Himalaya, tree-ring chronologies indicate an increase affects regional precipitation. There are several drivers in temperatures--in agreement with the temperature of change in the area: greenhouse gases, an increase in trends observed over the past 40-50 years in the western aerosols, and a sixfold increase in black carbon emis- region. Trained models seem to capture end-of-century sions. Main sources of aerosols are biofuels from wood climatology well, giving hope for projecting into the cookstoves. Forest fires, urban pollution, and dust being future. Models indicate that in the near term (2020) blown from the Thar Desert to the southwest are also the foothills show negative rainfall trends. However, contributors. In the Annapurna region, there is a strong further in the future (2050, 2080) it appears that the buildup of haze with heavy convection on the south 119

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120 APPENDIX B side. The Kali Gandaki Valley is a very open connec- the region. Models are not yet able to cover the regional tion to the Tibetan Plateau; this could be a major route hydroclimate, but the observational record itself has a of transport of aerosols to the plateau and the glaciers. lot of information that has not been sufficiently mined. AR4 simulations show that various climate products do not agree with each other (or the observations) regard- What Do We Know About Snow-Darkening ing local trends. As such, there is a widely divergent Effects on Himalayan Glaciers? agreement on projection models. Models can only Teppei J. Yasunari, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center produce the very broad features of climate and cannot resolve the specifics. However, this does not mean that Absorbing aerosols such as dust, black carbon, and the climate system cannot be resolved for the natural organic carbon are well-known warming factors in the and secular impacts. Regressions of principal large- atmosphere. When aerosols deposit on snow, it causes scale climate events, such as El Nio and monsoon, darkening of snow, causing absorption of more energy at over the last century can show robust trends that can the surface, leading to accelerated melting of snow. If this be used to reconstruct variables of interest (e.g., tem- happens to Himalayan glacier surfaces, the melting may perature and precipitation). Surface temperature is only contribute to mass balance changes, though the mass captured broadly, and a latitudinal increase is observed balance itself is a complicated issue. There are limited in the region. If the natural variability can be unrav- observations of the effect of snow darkening on glaciers, eled from secular change components, analysis of the but most of our knowledge is the result of model simula- 20th century observational record could yield insights tions. Ice-core measurements of black carbon show much about future variability and change. There are several higher concentrations in recent years (1995- present). techniques to tease out the actual physical components However, since 1860, there has not been an overall trend from larger variability. For example, one can look at of an increase in dust. Black carbon satellite data over trends using observations for the full 20th century and the region is still limited, and most of the snow samples the last 60 years. The 60-year trends show decadal vari- measuring black carbon are from the eastern side of ability most likely coming from the El Nio-Southern the region (e.g., in China). These snow samples show Oscillation. The century-long trend analysis does not "rings" of very clear deposition that can help track levels show these trends. of black carbon and dust. The black layers correspond to the spring season (when the atmospheric concentration of black carbon is higher). Though such studies show Hydroclimatic Challenges for Pakistan: an increasing trend, we must be careful to integrate Ideational and Material Drivers measurements to account for seasonality. The NASA Daanish Mustafa, King's College London GEOS-5 model simulations show very large deposition of black carbon in the Himalayan snowpack--much Water has multiple values in all cultures beyond its larger than anywhere else in the world. Some studies obvious use for livelihoods and economic value genera- suggest that this has significantly affected the albedo tion. Most modern water management systems in the of the snowpack. This seems to correlate to studies that world tend to be indifferent to the multiple, cultural, are showing increases in snow surface temperature and spiritual, aesthetic, and identity values that are never- decreases in the snow water equivalent. theless important to water users. There is considerable uncertainty regarding specific climate scenarios at the country scale; but it is certain that past climatic normals Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the will not continue into the future. Climate change for Northern Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Region Pakistan, as in the rest of the world, will involve deci- Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, College Park sions on water management in a context in which past trends are no longer effective guides for future action. Analysis of the 20th century observational record Pakistan in particular has suffered some dramatic and can yield insights about future variability and change in unusual hazards over the past decade, ranging from

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APPENDIX B 121 a multiyear drought in western Pakistan to relatively systems to climate change in the region. In the short unusual tropical depressions and cyclones hitting term, well-planned management, conservation, and southern Pakistan. Floods in the main-stem Indus efficient use of water currently available are certainly River in northwestern Pakistan are extremely rare; the as important as any changes that may take place in the historic 2010 floods were one such occurrence. Pakistan regional climate in the near future. has the largest contiguous surface irrigation system in the world. Much of the water entering the system is withdrawn for irrigation purposes, reducing the amount Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods of water available to flush the system. This leads to a (GLOFs) in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas reduction of channel capacity, which was one of the Alton C. Byers, The Mountain Institute factors in the floods of 2010. Incorporation of concerns about differential vulnerability, environmental quality, As glaciers have melted in the Hindu Kush- and social equity will be critical to building a climate- Himalayas (HKH) and Andes, hundreds of new glacial resilient future for Pakistan. Pakistani water managers lakes have formed behind dams usually consisting of will have to incorporate local people's multiple values soil and loose boulders. These lakes present a risk of for water within their management paradigms and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). GLOFs often seek to realize multiple social objectives from Pakistan's cause large loss of life and property downstream. Gla- water systems beyond just economic growth. cial lakes can become dangerous because they are held at bay by fragile terminal moraines that are suscep- tible to collapse (earthquakes, slides, etc.). When this The Glaciers of the Hindu Kush-Himalayan breaks, the result is a GLOF. When overhanging ice is Region: A Summary of the Science Regarding present, it can fall, and water can go over the wall. In Glacial Melt and Retreat in the Himalayan, terms of mitigation possibilities for this type of event, Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Pamir, and Tien the Andes provide a good example. Between 1940 and Shan Mountain Ranges 1950, they had several of these sorts of floods killing Richard L. Armstrong, University of Colorado, Boulder 10,000 people. In response, the government started working on how to control these floods through the Many of the glaciers in the Himalayas are retreat- fortification of the terminal moraine with a drainpipe ing, especially at the lower elevations in the eastern or drilling through bedrock to create a canal to lower Himalayas. However, there is no spatially comprehen- the lake level and use the water. A workshop and field sive or regionwide evidence to support the claim that expedition were held to discuss whether these tech- the glaciers of the Himalayas are retreating faster than nologies might be applicable in Nepal, and researchers any other location in the world. Data are sparse in the discovered the value of local knowledge. The team region, but the most common is terminus location. The formed a Global Glacial Lake Partnership to pro- terminus is a point measurement intended to describe mote and enhance collaboration and communication the glacier but it does not do an adequate job of describ- between scientists. ing the entire system. Conditions in the region contrast between the east and the west; data in the region should be compiled. In the east, the river runoff system is Himalayas, the Water Towers of Asia: dominated by the monsoon. As you move to the west, Can We Reconcile Water Demands glacial ice and seasonal snow play a much bigger role. for Livelihood in a Changing Climate? In the west, both the seasonal snow cover and glacier Shama Perveen, Columbia University volumes are much more stable that they are in the east. The fact that glaciers across the Himalayas may not be The Himalayan region contains the largest area disappearing at as rapid a rate as had been previously of glaciers, permafrost, and the largest freshwater thought does not in any way reduce the need for miti- resources outside the poles. It is the source of 10 of gation and adaptation to the response of these glacier Asia's largest rivers and more than a billion people

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122 APPENDIX B depend on the river flows for drinking water, irriga- which would increase the severity of the situation. For tion, hydropower, and tourism. Already the seasonality example, there are limited options for adaptability on of the supply and the increasing demand are not well the Indus. Major infrastructure projects in the Hima- reconciled. If snowmelt begins early and summer is layas are commencing to increase water storage; many longer, this will affect subsequent downstream uses. of them occur in interesting political areas. Water wars To combat this, you can either conserve or store are an extreme outcome. Water can also lead to coop- water. The region is losing groundwater according erative efforts. However, pressures may be greater than to GRACE data and we do not know much about have been accounted for in the past. Many treaties do recharge. Thus, the groundwater profile is incomplete. not have mechanisms to account for water instability In India, there is a proposal for a "linking" project, and they do not include key players (such as China or moving "surplus" water from the Himalayan rivers to Afghanistan). the "deficient" peninsular rivers. It was estimated that this would include 9 large dams, 24 small dams, and 12,500 canals and cost 200 billion US$. The proposal Demographic Trends, Social Trends, did not include a feasibility study and did not account and Possible Futures for seasonal spikes in hydrographs. The capacity for the Sajeda Amin, Population Council links has not even a 10th the capacity needed to carry peak flow. Another challenge for water resources in the People have always moved in response to climate. region is sedimentation, where the sediment discharge This is not a new phenomenon. Internal migration is the highest in the world. There are large knowledge tends to be to urban areas, although refugees also gaps in the Himalayas hindering educated manage- migrate internationally (e.g., to London, Japan, Saudi ment, including data, the well-coordinated sharing of Arabia, and India). The climate conversation is domi- knowledge, the remoteness of glaciers, seismic risks, nated by discussions of low-elevation coastal zones, and and uncertainties in time and space scales, and diver- in this area of the world, there is very little conversa- sity of uses/users. tion about migration and the associated human rights. Fertility trends in South Asia are declining generally across the board and are stabilizing. However, Pakistan Under Pressure: International Water Management is "lagging" behind in this respect. Infant mortality is Challenges in the Himalayan Region also declining (highest rate in Bangladesh). The per- David Michel, The Stimson Center cent of population in urban areas is growing steadily. Pakistan has the lowest level of female labor, and there Water managers across the Himalayan region is not much movement in female labor force participa- will confront a host of overlapping socioeconomic, tion. Education levels have improved dramatically, and environmental, and policy challenges as they strive to gender participation has nearly reached parity. There fulfill their societies' future water needs. In many of has also been a shift from agriculture to the service the great rivers that rise in the Hindu Kush Hima- sector within the labor force, hence urban migration. layan mountains--the Amu Darya, Ganges, Indus, Urban growth in Bangladesh is largely in environmen- Yellow--total withdrawals nearly equal or even surpass tally vulnerable areas. long-term flow balances. Water flows across borders throughout the region, and these rivers are "allocated" or distributed. With population growth in India, Nepal, Regional Population Trends and Pakistan, and Afghanistan and changes in dietary pat- Environmental Issues terns, the demand for food will increase. To account Malea Hoepf, Independent Consultant for this, irrigation is speculated to increase by 10 percent. Nonagricultural water use will also increase. The countries fed by the Himalayan glaciers have Projected water deficits vary from country to country a broad range of demographic histories and futures. and basin to basin, without considering climate change, All of the countries have experienced dramatic fertility

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APPENDIX B 123 declines over the last half century, the result of various Environment-Security Links social and policy changes, ranging from China's "One Richard Matthew, University of California, Irvine Child Policy," to Bangladesh's approach that paired government support with improved services and social It is very difficult to model how changes in the marketing, to Pakistan's less successful policies that leave environment affect political stability. There is agree- it with one of the highest fertility rates in Asia. These ment that the environment is a security issue, and the countries also have different population- environment prevailing opinion is that climate change will lead to interactions, sometimes pairing traditional developed- more resource conflicts. There is much uncertainty, country concerns, such as growing carbon emissions however, and resource scarcity could lead to more coop- and developing-country challenges of feeding large eration rather than conflict. It can also spark ingenuity. population with food grown from degraded land and Certain countries are particularly vulnerable to climate diminishing water supplies. The challenges in these change. In this region, population is growing, resources countries to handle demographic change and address are becoming scarce, and many of the states are high environmental degradation have important implica- on the Failed State Index, a measure of how readily a tions for adapting to a changing environment, reducing government can provide services. Thus, though climate the risk of conflict, and alleviating poverty for their change will undoubtedly affect this region, it is dif- people in the decades to come. ficult to say whether it is the issue that will push these systems over a threshold, or be a small player in an oth- erwise stressed system. Nonetheless, the implications Inventorying and Monitoring the Recent are large and varied (terrorism, development factors, Behavior of Afghanistan's Glaciers water scarcity, agricultural failure, etc.). In many South Bruce Molnia, U.S. Geological Survey Asian countries, problems are exacerbated by climate change, but many problems are associated with misused The U.S. Geological Survey's nationwide inves- resources and ignoring of environmental regulations; tigation of the water resources of Afghanistan has poor strategies and decisions can create vulnerabilities components focused on characterizing the relationship that climate change may magnify. between glaciers and Afghanistan's water resources, determining the recent behavior of the country's gla- ciers, and understanding the response of Afghanistan's Strategic Options for Addressing Climate glaciers to changing climate. GIS analysis, a super- Change and Water Security Risks in Afghanistan vised classification, and a remote sensing assessment Sanjay Pahuja, World Bank are being conducted to determine the number, loca- tion, size, area, aspect, and many other parameters of In Afghanistan, rapid growth in the Kabul area Afghanistan's glaciers. At low elevations, many glaciers means demand growth for household and hydropower have already disappeared. The mid-range altitudes and industrial water uses. Hydropower development is show the effects of complex behaviors in glaciers: debris only 5 to 10 percent of its potential, but years of conflict coverage, transient water, stagnation. High-elevation have left the power grids severely damaged. The growth glaciers are not significantly affected at this time. In of the mining industry is raising demand for water. Only the Karakorum Range, the dynamics are different and 4 to 5 percent of agricultural land is irrigated, although 65 percent of the glaciers are advancing. In northeast the majority of Afghans depend upon agriculture. Even Afghanistan, water delivery is affected by glacial runoff. modest improvements in regional water management There is a large mobile water component that may be and infrastructure can lead to expansions in both energy increasing with increasing temperatures, which gives and food production. International agreements exist for potential for flooding. The amount of glacial melt com- five river basins, but changing conditions will likely test pared with snowfall and rain in the area is still being them. Ongoing political and military conflict hinders determined. In this area, snow is significant, but it is improvement, but many water management projects hard to quantify. (most of them large scale) are under consideration

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124 APPENDIX B by international aid donors. Insufficient water for to infrastructure, property, and lives. Bhutan also faces allocation, inadequate financing, and limited human risks associated with glacial lake outburst floods, with resources have resulted in stagnation in preparation and 25 of its 1,674 glacial lakes at risk for floods. Bhutan implementation. A systemwide perspective is critically has limited resources to deal with these issues; it is needed, to include both large-scale and small-scale designated as a "least developed country," small, land- efforts, but Afghanistan, as a "least developed country" locked, in debt, and with only a nascent private sector. has little capacity to take this perspective. Parliamentary democracy was introduced in Bhutan only in 2008. Bangladesh: Climate Risk and Vulnerabilities Ahsan Uddin Ahmed, Centre for Global Change China: Climate Risk and Vulnerabilities Jennifer Turner, Woodrow Wilson Center Bangladesh has special water-related vulnerabili- ties, including a high population density in an area China's water-related issues have the potential to vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise, a dependence undermine its growth. Seventy percent of its energy on upstream countries for water supply, and important comes from coal mines located largely in the north, regional water quality challenges arising from local and coal uses 20 percent of the country's water. China groundwater contaminated by natural and human sees its priorities as developing new supply rather than contaminants. Social conditions are improving, includ- improving water management. This includes major ing education (e.g., increasing female enrollment in efforts to move water from the southern watersheds primary and secondary schools, and increasing literacy to the north and developing and diverting waters among farmers), skills enhancement, and an economy from upstream basins without regard for downstream growing at about 6 percent annually. Food security is impacts. China may be building a significant number of an issue for the growing population, although progress new large dams in the coming years, but some existing has been made in developing agricultural products to dams are already underutilized because of diminished defy climate variability and change. water supply. China has not been a central participant in regional water commissions or planning activities, preferring to pursue water development without con- Bhutan: Climate Risk and Vulnerabilities sultation with other affected nations. Other challenges Thinley Namgyel, National Environment include territorial conflicts over shared watersheds such Commission, Bhutan as the Sichuan Glacier dispute with India. Bhutan has plenty of water at the national level but experiences local and seasonal shortages. Hydro- Border Dispute in the Himalayan Region power accounts for 21 percent of its GDP and almost Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University, Bloomington 100 percent of its electricity; Bhutan's goal is to install 10,000 MW by 2020 against the 1,480 MW in 2011. The Sino-Indian border along the Himalayas This ambitious target is unlikely to be met because of remains one of the most militarized areas of the world. controversy over large-scale hydro development, finan- The militarization of this region stems from an unre- cial constraints, and uncertainties about future hydro- solved border dispute that has its origins in British logical conditions. Seasonal differences result in winter colonial border policies from the 19th century. Despite shortages, and competition for water from small water multiple bilateral negotiations on the border dispute, sources often leads to conflicts between communities little progress has been made toward its resolution. during the irrigation season. Because of its upstream In recent years, China has expanded the scope of its location, Bhutan is especially vulnerable to climate claims along portions of the Sino-Indian border. Not changes that increase seasonal flood risks, including surprisingly, this has contributed to greater troop con- flash floods during the monsoon season, with damage centrations resulting in greater environmental stresses

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APPENDIX B 125 to the area. Finally, the dispute may take on even greater Pakistan: Climate Risk and Vulnerabilities salience as China plans to divert water and construct David Archer, JBA Consulting hydroelectric stations in Tibet. The viability of Pakistan's economy depends on the state of the Indus River. Apart from the narrow ribbon Toad's Eye Perspective: The Missing Element of green along the Himalayan range, Pakistan is largely in Climate Change Debates desert and semidesert. As a predominantly agricultural Dipak Gyawali, Nepal Academy of Science and economy it depends on the Indus River for irrigation Technology and Water Conservation Foundation of both food and cash crops. In a normal year, about 75 percent of the river inflow is diverted, and in a drought Nepal's 10-year Maoist insurrection ended in 2007, year only a trickle of freshwater reaches the Indian but its effects linger in the inability of the government Ocean. The Indus Basin Irrigation System irrigates 80 to write a constitution and in its weak capacity to enact percent of Pakistan's approximately 22 million hectares or implement policies and programs. Like Afghani- of farmland. Hence changes in flow in the Indus River stan and Bhutan, it is designated as a "least developed arising from climate change or other causes, or in the country." There are planned large-scale dams, but balance between water supply and demand (mainly for small-scale, community-centered water management irrigation) send a ripple effect through the entire Paki- would be preferable to top-down planned projects and stan economy and have implications for food security, might provide greater flexibility in the face of climate poverty and prosperity, and ultimately for personal and change. The country has an active mountain-climbing state security. and tourism industry (although agriculture dominates the economy), with glaciers being a strong attraction in the high-mountain landscapes.

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