National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Continuing Kepler's Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command's Astrodynamics Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13456.
×

CONTINUING KEPLER’S QUEST

Assessing Air Force Space Command’s
Astrodynamics Standards

Committee for the Assessment of the U.S. Air Force’s Astrodynamic Standards

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Continuing Kepler's Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command's Astrodynamics Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13456.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS        500 Fifth Street, NW         Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study is based on work supported by Grant FA9550-11-1-0007 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Air Force. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26142-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26142-2

Cover: Design by Tim Warchocki.

Copies of this report are available free of charge from:

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
National Research Council
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001

Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Continuing Kepler's Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command's Astrodynamics Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13456.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.nationalacademies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Continuing Kepler's Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command's Astrodynamics Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13456.
×

OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD

NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA’s Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in Space (Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2012)

Recapturing NASA’s Aeronautics Flight Research Capabilities (ASEB, 2012)

An Interim Report on NASA’s Draft Space Technology Roadmaps (ASEB, 2011)

Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2011 Ohio Third Frontier Wright Projects Program (OTF WPP) (ASEB, 2011)

Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011)

Preparing for the High Frontier—the Role and Training of NASA Astronauts in the Post-Space Shuttle Era (ASEB, 2011)

Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (Space Studies Board [SSB] with ASEB, 2011)

Summary of the Workshop to Identify Gaps and Possible Directions for NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011)

Advancing Aeronautical Safety: A Review of NASA’s Aviation Safety-Related Research Programs (ASEB, 2010)

Capabilities for the Future: An Assessment of NASA Laboratories for Basic Research (Laboratory Assessments Board with ASEB, 2010)

Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Final Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010)

Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2010 Ohio Third Frontier (OTF) Wright Projects Program (WPP) (ASEB, 2010)

America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (SSB with ASEB, 2009)

Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2009)

An Assessment of NASA’s National Aviation Operations Monitoring Service (ASEB, 2009)

Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2009 Engineering and Physical Science Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2009)

Fostering Visions for the Future: A Review of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (ASEB, 2009)

Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009)

Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009)

Assessing the Research and Development Plan for the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Summary of a Workshop (ASEB, 2008)

A Constrained Space Exploration Technology Program: A Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program (ASEB, 2008)

Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2008 Engineering Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2008)

Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2008 Ohio Research Scholars Program of the State of Ohio (ASEB, 2008)

Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008)

Managing Space Radiation Risk in the New Era of Space Exploration (ASEB, 2008)

NASA Aeronautics Research: An Assessment (ASEB, 2008)

Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program: An Interim Report (ASEB, 2008)

Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008)

United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2008)

Wake Turbulence: An Obstacle to Increased Air Traffic Capacity (ASEB, 2008)

Limited copies of ASEB reports are available free of charge from:

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
National Research Council
The Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-2858/aseb@nas.edu
www.nationalacademies.org/aseb.html

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Continuing Kepler's Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command's Astrodynamics Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13456.
×

COMMITTEE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. AIR FORCE’S ASTRODYNAMIC STANDARDS

PAUL D. NIELSEN, Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute, Chair

KYLE T. ALFRIEND, Texas A&M University, Vice Chair

MICHAEL J. BLOOMFIELD, Oceaneering International, Inc.

JOHN T. EMMERT, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory

YANPING GUO, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

TIMOTHY D. MACLAY, Celestial Insight, Inc.

JAMES G. MILLER, Omitron Corporation1

ROBERT F. MORRIS, Aerospace Corporation

AUBREY B. POORE, Numerica Corporation

RYAN P. RUSSELL, University of Texas at Austin

DONALD G. SAARI, University of California, Irvine

DANIEL J. SCHEERES, University of Colorado, Boulder

WILLIAM P. SCHONBERG, Missouri University of Science and Technology

RAMASWAMY SRIDHARAN, MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Staff

DWAYNE A. DAY, Senior Program Officer, Study Director

CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor

AMANDA R. THIBAULT, Research Associate

ANDREA M. REBHOLZ, Program Associate

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board


image

1 Formerly with the MITRE Corporation until February 2012.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Continuing Kepler's Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command's Astrodynamics Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13456.
×

AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD

LESTER LYLES, The Lyles Group, Chair

AMY L. BUHRIG, Enerprise Technology Strategy, Boeing Company, Vice Chair

ELLA M. ATKINS, University of Michigan

INDERJIT CHOPRA, University of Maryland, College Park

JOHN-PAUL B. CLARKE, Georgia Institute of Technology

RAVI B. DEO, EMBR

VIJAY DHIR, University of California, Los Angeles

EARL H. DOWELL, Duke University

MICA R. ENDSLEY, SA Technologies

DAVID GOLDSTON, Harvard University

R. JOHN HANSMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN B. HAYHURST, Boeing Company (retired)

WILLIAM L. JOHNSON, California Institute of Technology

RICHARD KOHRS, Independent Consultant

IVETT LEYVA, Air Force Research Laboratory

ELAINE S. ORAN, Naval Research Laboratory

HELEN R. REED, Texas A&M University

ELI RESHOTKO, Case Western Reserve University

EDMOND SOLIDAY, United Airlines (retired)

Staff

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director

CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator

TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations

CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate

CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer

SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Continuing Kepler's Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command's Astrodynamics Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13456.
×

Preface

In early 2011 the U.S. Air Force Space Command asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake a study of its astrodynamics standards—essentially the algorithms and associated computer systems used by the Air Force to keep track of thousands of orbiting objects. To conduct this study, the NRC established the Committee for the Assessment of the U.S. Air Force’s Astrodynamic Standards. The committee met four times: October 11-12, 2011, in Colorado Springs, Colorado; December 12-14, 2011, in Irvine, California; February 7-9, 2012, in Washington, D.C.; and March 26-27, 2012, in Colorado Springs. It conducted data-gathering sessions at the first three meetings as a basis for preparing its report.

Chapter 1, “Meeting the Mission,” provides the background necessary for the remainder of the report. It describes the mission and future anticipated needs, summarizes the history of the development of the standardized astrodynamics algorithms and how we got to where we are today, and summarizes the needs of commercial users. Chapter 2, “Astrodynamics Algorithms,” provides a summary of the physical and mathematical aspects of astrodynamics algorithms, estimation algorithms, and the problems of and need for obtaining a realistic representation of orbit uncertainty and covariance realism, as well as the need for improving the characterization of sensor measurement errors. The broader aspects of the computational environment of the algorithms, the data products, and the need to ensure interoperability with all users are issues that are addressed in Chapter 3, “Systems Issues.” Chapter 4, “Broader Issues,” concludes with a discussion of issues such as the vision and the environment and culture for ensuring that future astrodynamics algorithms are quality products that meet the needs of the Joint Space Operations Center in a cost-effective manner.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

George H. Born, University of Colorado, Boulder,
L. Alberto Cangahuala, Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
Chee-Yee Chong, BAE Systems,
Duane Deal, Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies (SGT), Inc.,

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. Continuing Kepler's Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command's Astrodynamics Standards. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13456.
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Tim Fuller-Rowell, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center,
Felix R. Hoots, Aerospace Corporation,
Robert H. Latiff, U.S. Air Force (retired), and
Alan M. Segerman, Naval Research Laboratory.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse any conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William Ailor, the Aerospace Corporation. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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In February 2009, the commercial communications satellite Iridium 33 collided with the Russian military communications satellite Cosmos 2251. The collision, which was not the first recorded between two satellites in orbit--but the most recent and alarming--produced thousands of pieces of debris, only a small percentage of which could be tracked by sensors located around the world. In early 2007, China tested a kinetic anti-satellite weapon against one of its own satellites, which also generated substantial amounts of space debris. These collisions highlighted the importance of maintaining accurate knowledge, and the associated uncertainty, of the orbit of each object in space. These data are needed to predict close approaches of space objects and to compute the probability of collision so that owners/operators can decide whether or not to make a collision avoidance maneuver by a spacecraft with such capability. The space object catalog currently contains more than 20,000 objects, and when the planned space fence radar becomes operational this number is expected to exceed 100,000.

A key task is to determine if objects might come closer to each other, an event known as "conjunction," and the probability that they might collide. The U.S. Air Force is the primary U.S. government organization tasked with maintaining the space object catalog and data on all space objects. This is a complicated task, involving collecting data from a multitude of different sensors-many of which were not specifically designed to track orbiting objects-and fusing the tracking data along with other data, such as data from atmospheric models, to provide predictions of where objects will be in the future.

The Committee for the Assessment of the U.S. Air Force's Astrodynamic Standards collected data and heard from numerous people involved in developing and maintaining the current astrodynamics standards for the Air Force Space Command (AFSPC), as well as representatives of the user community, such as NASA and commercial satellite owners and operators. Preventing collisions of space objects, regardless of their ownership, is in the national security interested of the United States. Continuing Kepler's Quest makes recommendations to the AFSPC in order for it to create and expand research programs, design and develop hardware and software, as well as determine which organizations to work with to achieve its goals.

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