Disaster
Resilience

A NATIONAL IMPERATIVE



Committee on Increasing National Resilience to Hazards and Disasters

Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Committee on Increasing National Resilience to Hazards and Disasters Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers under award number W912HQ-10-C-0071, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service under award number 09-DG-11221637'351, U.S. Department of Energy under award number DE-PI0000010, U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under award number DG-133R-08CQ0062, Department of Homeland Security HSHQDC-10-C-00087, Federal Emergency Management Agency under award number HSFEHQ-11-C-1642, Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey under award number G104P00079, National Aeronautics and Space Administration under award number NNXIOAN3IG, and Community and Regional Resilience Institute and Oak Ridge National Laboratory under award number 4000090613. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. ISBN-13: 978-0-309-26150-0 ISBN-10: 0-309-26150-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2012953228 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/ . Cover: Conceptual design by Eric Edkin; design layout by Anne Rogers Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Thee National Aca ademy of Scienc ces is a private, nonprofit, self- -perpetuating socciety of distinguished scho olars engaged in n scientific and engineering research, dedicated d to the rtherance of science and technology and to their fur r use for the genneral welfare. Upon U the aut thority of the chaarter granted to it i by the Congress in 1863, the Academy A has a mandate m tha at requires it to advise a the federa al government ono scientific andd technical matteers. Dr. Rallph J. Cicerone is i president of th he National Acad demy of Science es. The e National Acaddemy of Engine eering was estab blished in 1964, under the charteer of the Naational Academy y of Sciences, as s a parallel organ nization of outst tanding engineer rs. It is auttonomous in its administration and in the selec ction of its mem mbers, sharing with w the Naational Academy y of Sciences thhe responsibility y for advising th he federal government. The e National Acaademy of Engin neering also spo onsors engineeri ing programs ai imed at meeeting national needs, n encouragees education and d research, and recognizes r the superior s ach hievements of enngineers. Dr. Ch harles M. Vest iss president of th he National Acaddemy of Eng gineering. Thee Institute of Medicine M was est tablished in 1970 0 by the Nationa al Academy of Sciences S to s secure the servic ces of eminent members m of apprropriate professiions in the exammination of policy matters pertaining to thhe health of thee public. The Institute I acts un nder the responsibility given n to the Nationa al Academy of Sciences S by its congressional c ch harter to be an adviser to the federal govern nment and, upon n its own initiativ ve, to identify is ssues of meedical care, reseearch, and educcation. Dr. Ha arvey V. Finebe erg is president t of the Ins stitute of Medicin ne. Thee National Rese earch Council wasw organized by y the National Academy A of Scie ences in 19116 to associate the t broad comm munity of scienc ce and technologgy with the Aca ademy's purrposes of furtherring knowledge and advising th he federal goverrnment. Functio oning in acc cordance with general policies determined d by the t Academy, th he Council has become b the e principal oper rating agency of o both the Nat tional Academy y of Sciences and a the Naational Academy y of Engineering g in providing services s to the government, g the public, and a engineering communities. The Council is administered joi d the scientific and intly by botth Academies an nd the Institute of o Medicine. Dr r. Ralph J. Cicero one and Dr. Chaarles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respe ectively, of the National N Researcch Council. www.natio onal-academi ies.org

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Committee on Increasing National Resilience to Hazards and Disasters Susan L. Cutter (Chair), Carolina Distinguished Professor and Director, Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, University of South Carolina, Columbia Maj. Gen. Joseph A. Ahearn (Retired), Senior Vice President, CH2M HILL Ltd, Colorado Bernard Amadei, Professor of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder Patrick Crawford, Director of Disaster Services, Feeding America, Chicago, Illinois Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., Glenn L. Martin Institute Professor of Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park Michael F. Goodchild, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara Howard C. Kunreuther, James G. Dinan Professor of Decision Sciences & Public Policy, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Meredith Li-Vollmer, Risk Communication Specialist, Public Health Seattle and King County, Washington Monica Schoch-Spana, Senior Associate, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Baltimore, Maryland Susan C. Scrimshaw, President, The Sage Colleges, Troy, New York Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., Director of Western Emergency Management Services, Dewberry LLC, Atlanta, Georgia Gene Whitney, Energy Research Manager, Congressional Research Service, Washington, DC Mary Lou Zoback, Consulting Professor, Stanford University, Stanford, California Staff Lauren Alexander-Augustine, Associate Executive Director, Division on Earth and Life Studies, and Director, Disasters Roundtable Elizabeth A. Eide, Director, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, and Study Director Neeraj P. Gorkhaly, Research Associate Eric J. Edkin, Senior Program Assistant John H. Brown, Program Associate v

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Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy Richard N. Zare (Chair), Marguerite Blake Wilbur Professor in Natural Science, Department of Chemistry, Stanford University, Stanford, California Linda M. Abriola (ex-officio), Dean of Engineering, Tufts University Claude R. Canizares, Vice President for Research and Associate Provost and Bruno Rossi Professor of Experimental Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Moses H. W. Chan, Evan Pugh Professor of Physics, Pennsylvania State University Ralph J. Cicerone (ex-officio), President, National Academy of Sciences Paul Citron, Vice President (Retired), Technology Policy and Academic Relations, Medtronic, Inc. Ruth A. David, President and Chief Executive Officer, ANSER (Analytic Services, Inc.) Harvey V. Fineberg (ex-officio), President, Institute of Medicine C. Dan Mote, Jr. (ex-officio), President Emeritus and Glenn Martin Institute Professor of Engineering, University of Maryland Percy A. Pierre, Vice President and Professor Emeritus, Michigan State University E. Albert Reece, Vice President for Medical Affairs, Bowers Distinguished Professor and Dean, School of Medicine, University of Maryland Susan C. Scrimshaw, President, The Sage Colleges William J. Spencer, Chairman Emeritus, SEMATECH Michael S. Turner, Rauner Distinguished Service Professor, Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, The University of Chicago Charles M. Vest (ex-officio), President, National Academy of Engineering Nancy S. Wexler, Higgins Professor of Neuropsychology, Columbia University Staff Kevin Finneran, Director Tom Arrison, Program Officer Neeraj P. Gorkhaly, Research Associate Marion Ramsey, Administrative Associate vi

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Preface Disaster resilience is everyone's business and is a shared responsibility among citizens, the private sector, and government. Increasing resilience to disasters requires bold decisions and actions that may pit short-term interests against longer-term goals. As a nation we have two choices. We can maintain the status quo and move along as we have for decades--addressing important, immediate issues such as the solvency of the National Flood Insurance Program, the most effective ways to discourage development in high-risk areas, and how to improve the speed and effectiveness disaster response. Or, we can embark on a new path--one that also recognizes and rewards the values of resilience to the individual, household, community, and nation. Such a path requires a commitment to a new vision that includes shared responsibility for resilience and one that puts resilience in the forefront of many of our public policies that have both direct and indirect effects on enhancing resilience. The nation needs to build the capacity to become resilient, and we need to do this now. Such capacity building starts with individuals taking responsibility for their actions and moves to entire communities working in conjunction with local, state, and federal officials, all of whom need to assume specific responsibilities for building the national quilt of resilience. In the context of this report, the committee has used the term "community" in a very broad sense, encompassing the full range of potential communities--including local neighborhoods, family units, cities, counties, regions, or other entities. Defining a community as part of the nation's sense of collective resilience is a very site-specific endeavor, and the committee wanted to address this report toward the many kinds of communities that exist across the country. Enhancing the nation's resilience to hazards and disasters is a laudable aspiration, but as is the case with such lofty goals, the devil is in the details. Although few would argue about the need to enhance the resilience of the nation and its communities to natural hazards, conflicts arise over how to move toward enhancing resilience, how to manage the costs of doing so, and how to assess its effectiveness. As we have seen, the costs of disasters are increasing as a function of more people and structures in harm's way as well as the effects of the extreme events themselves. These costs are being incurred at a time when more and more communities are financially constrained and unable to pay for essential services such as public safety and education. The choices that local communities have to make are thus difficult and not without some pain. At the vii

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PREFACE same time, federal, state, and local governments have their own sets of constraints in terms of budget priorities, national interests, aging and declining infrastructure, and the political realities of implementing the kinds of changes needed to increase resilience. Disaster resilience may not be on the forefront of a political or institutional agenda until a disaster strikes one's own community. Political will and strong leadership are therefore essential to build resilience at any level. The full range of roles and responsibilities, the broad stakeholder constituency, and even the iterative nature of building resilience are reflected in the sponsorship for this study, in the committee composition (Appendix A), and the information-gathering process used during this study. The nine study sponsors play different roles in monitoring and research, provision of data, community leadership, emergency management, disaster response, and short- term recovery. The committee comprises individuals with expertise in physical science and engineering, geographical science, social and behavioral science, economics, and public health, with professional experience from research, public policy, emergency and disaster management, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and government service. In many ways, resilience emerges as a topic that unites different groups with the goals of creating a common dialogue, reducing losses, and decreasing vulnerability to hazards and disasters. The committee and sponsors reflect this unity of purpose. For this study, "national" does not equate to "federal." The stakeholders and audience for this study extend beyond the Washington, D.C. governmental community, and the experiential information necessary to understand national resilience lies in communities across the United States. To try to collect some of these regional experiences and information and the diversity of hazards faced in various parts of the country, the committee held three open meetings in New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast; Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, Iowa; and Southern California (Appendix B). Although many of the examples in the report are drawn from these three regions, the ideas and lessons are applicable to many communities across the nation. Discussions in workshops held in each of these three regions were supplemented by field excursions in the local communities to collect vital information about the successes and challenges people and institutions face in their efforts to become resilient to disasters. These three regions of the country were selected by the committee because each possesses a large amount of direct experience in building resilience through disaster preparedness, absorbing and responding to disasters, and in disaster recovery, adaptation, and mitigation. Although the committee discussed very specific issues and broad hazards and disaster policies, we made a decision to offer recommendations that we, as a committee, felt were actionable by local, state, and federal interests and stakeholders in the short, medium, and long term. Implementation of these recommendations requires bipartisan support and involvement by private interests as well as those in the nonprofit sector. viii

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DISASTER RESILIENCE: A NATIONAL IMPERATIVE Enhancing the nation's resilience will not be easy, nor will it be cheap. But the urgency is there and we need to begin the process now in order to build a national ethos that will make the nation safer, stronger, more secure, and more sustainable for our children and grandchildren. Susan L. Cutter, Chair July 2011 ix

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Acknowledgments In addition to its own expertise, the committee relied on input from numerous external professionals and members of the public with extensive experience in public policy, emergency and disaster management, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, government service, research, and personal and institutional responses to hazards and disaster events before, during, and after they occurred. These contributors provided data, references, and perspectives that assisted the committee in understanding the scope of the very broad issue of disaster resilience and the impact of decisions and actions that can increase or degrade the resilience of communities facing a variety of hazards and disasters. These individuals were very frank and open in providing important information to the committee without which it would have been impossible to develop this report. These individuals gave the committee distinct insights about what is happening at the local, state, and regional levels in terms of increasing disaster resilience. We gratefully acknowledge these individuals and organizations and note that their thorough and helpful responses are brought forward throughout the report. The study's sponsors, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Homeland Security and Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory/Community and Regional Resilience Institute were particularly supportive and patient as the committee worked through this very challenging problem. In addition, the committee would like to thank the following individuals who contributed to the study in different and meaningful ways: In connection with the committee's Gulf Coast meeting, we thank Charles Allen III, Knox Andress, Justin Augustine, John Barry, Steven Bingler, Tap Bui, Garcia Bodley, Paul Byers, Commissioner Mike Chaney, Craig Colten, Maria Elisa Mandarim de Lacerda, Joseph Donchess, Mayor Garcia and Fire Chief Smith of Waveland, Mississippi, Greg Grillo, Kimberley Hoppe, Bill Howell, Natalie Jayroe, Pam Jenkins, Bob Klemme, Mary Claire Landry, Shirley Laska, Doug Meffert, Stephen Murphy, Earthea Nance, Eric Nelson, Tracy Nelson, May Nguyen, Allison Plyer, Julie Rochman, Ommeed Sathe, Ronald Schumann III, Tracie Sempier, Bill Stallworth, Marcia St. Martin, xi

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Jonathan Thompson, and Frank Wise; community members of Village de L'Est and the owner of the caf in which we held our discussion in East New Orleans; the Knight Nonprofit Center including Alice Graham, John Hosey, John Kelly, Rupert Lacy, Tom Lansford, Reilly Morse, Kimberly Nastasi, and Lori West. In connection with the committee's meeting in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, Iowa, we thank Jerry Anthony, Nancy Beers, Dee Brown, Christine Butterfield, Clark Christensen, Amy Costliow, Luciana Cunha, Lt. General Ron Dardis, Steve Dummeruth, Dave Elgin, Mark English, Kamyar Enshayan, Mitch Finn, Bill Gardam, Greg Graham, Donna Harvey, Benjamin Hoover, Patty Judge, Cindy Kaestner, Witold Krajewski, Carmen Langel, Kevin Leicht, Adam Lindenlaub, Alan Macvey, Liz Mathis, Jeff McClaran, Dave Miller, Tom Moore, Cornelia Mutel, Laura Myers, Doug Neumann, Corinne Peek-Asa, Lisa Pritchard, Marizen Ramirez, John Beldon Scott, Drew Skogman, Kyle Skogman, Megan Snitkey, Kathleen Stewart, Peter Thorne, James Throgmorton, Achilleas Tsakiris, Clint Twedt-Ball, Courtney Twedt-Ball, Terry Vaughan, Chad Ware, Larry Weber, Michael Wichman, Chuck Wieneke, Emily White, Leslie Wright, and Rick Wulfekuhle. In connection with the committee's meeting in Irvine, California, we thank Mariana Amatullo, David Eisenman, Baruch Fischhoff, Alan Glennon, Mark Hansen, John Holmes, Lucy Jones, Sarah Karlinsky, Richard Little, Mike Morel, Javier Moreno, Leysia Palen, Chris Poland, Ezra Rapport, Roxanne Silver, Nalini Venkatasubramanian, and Matt Zook. The helpful assistance we received with regard to planning and executing the field trips for the committee's regional meetings was also critical. We recognize the contributions from Senator Mary Landrieu who shared her welcoming remarks to open our workshop in the Gulf Coast. We also recognize and thank the city of New Orleans and Mayor Mitch Landrieu's office; the city of Cedar Rapids and Mayor Ron Corbett and City Manager Jeff Pomeranz; Cedar Rapids' Community Development Department including Christine Butterfield and Adam Lindenlaub; Leslie Wright from the United Way of East Central Iowa; Larry Weber from the University of Iowa; and John Holmes and the Port of Los Angeles. Their excellent cooperation and efforts to provide access to necessary information and localities greatly informed the committee's work. At other stages of the study we also received very helpful contributions from Paul Brenner, Ben Billings, Laurie Johnson, Dennis Mileti, and Claire Rubin. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review xii

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DISASTER RESILIENCE: A NATIONAL IMPERATIVE comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Jacobo Bielak, Carnegie Mellon University; Christine Butterfield, City of Cedar Rapids-Iowa; Susan Curry, University of Iowa; Joseph Donovan, Beacon Hill Partners; Christopher Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington; Brian Flynn, Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences; Stephen Flynn, Northeastern University; Sandro Galea, Columbia University; Edward George, Massachusetts General Hospital; Jack Harrald, Virginia Polytechnic University; Bryan Koon, Florida Division of Emergency Management; John Krueger, Cherokee Nation Health Service; Burrell Montz, East Carolina University; Christopher Poland, Degenkolb Engineers; Barbara Reynolds, Centers for Disease Control; and Adam Rose, University of Southern California. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Susan Hanson, Clark University (emeriti), and Dr. Mary Clutter, National Science Foundation (retired). Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. xiii

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CONTENTS SUMMARY 1 1. THE NATION'S AGENDA FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE 11 Resilience: Why Now? 11 The National Imperative to Increase Resilience 13 Resilience Defined and the Role of this Study 16 On the Nation's Resilience Agenda 22 References 23 2 THE FOUNDATION FOR BUILDING A RESILIENT 25 NATION: UNDERSTANDING, MANAGING, AND REDUCING DISASTER RISKS Understanding Risk 26 Managing Risk 28 Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty 38 Risk Management Strategies and Measures 43 Improving Resilience Through Risk Management 58 Knowledge and Data Needs 59 Summary and Recommendations 61 References 63 3 MAKING THE CASE FOR RESILIENCE INVESTMENTS: 67 THE SCOPE OF THE CHALLENGE Introduction 67 Challenge of Resilience Decision Making for Community Leaders 69 The Scale and Scope of Disasters and Disaster Losses--An Urgent Problem 71 Knowledge and Data Needs 85 Summary and Recommendation 86 References 88 4 MEASURING PROGRESS TOWARD RESILIENCE 91 The Need for Metrics and Indicators 91 Measures of U.S. National Resilience 94 International Efforts to Measure Resilience 104 The Committee's Perspective 110 Knowledge and Data Needs 111 Summary and Recommendation: Implementing a Measurement System 112 References 114 xv

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5 BUILDING LOCAL CAPACITY AND ACCELERATING 117 PROGRESS: RESILIENCE FROM THE BOTTOM UP Whole Community Engagement 118 Linking Private and Public Infrastructure Interests 127 Communication to Build Resilience 134 Zoning and Building Codes and Standards 144 Research and Information Needs 150 Summary and Recommendations 150 References 153 6 THE LANDSCAPE OF RESILIENCE POLICY: 159 RESILIENCE FROM THETOP DOWN Introduction 159 Existing Federal Policies That Strengthen Resilience 160 State and Local Authorities and Policies 182 Unintended Consequences: Policies and Practices That Negatively Impact Resilience 186 Resilience Policy Gaps and Needs 192 Summary, Findings, and Recommendation 194 References 195 7 PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER: LINKING 197 COMMUNITIES AND GOVERNANCE TO GUIDE NATIONAL RESILIENCE Steps for Implementation 206 References 208 8 BUILDING A MORE RESILIENT NATION: 209 THE PATH FORWARD APPENDIXES A. Committee and Staff Biographical Information 219 B. Committee Meetings and Workshop Agendas 229 C. Essential Hazard Monitoring Networks 241 xvi