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FIGURE 4.3 Spatial resolution of disaster resilience for FEMA Region IV. Source: S. Cutter/HRVI.

SPUR Model

The San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) developed a set of metrics for measuring the resilience of the Bay Area with respect to earthquakes (SPUR, 2008). The process begins with the definition of an “expected earthquake,” defined as one “that can reasonably be expected to occur once during the useful life of a structure or system,” and in operation is one with a 10 percent probability of occurrence in a 50-year period. In the SPUR methodology, specific recovery objectives are defined in distinct time frames (Table 4.1): hours (3 to 72), days (30 to 60), and months (4 to 36). These target states of recovery and their time frames include those for hospitals, police and fire, the emergency operations center, transportation systems and utilities, airports, and neighborhood retail businesses, offices, and workplaces. Five categories of performance are defined for buildings ranging from A (safe and operational) to E (unsafe). Significantly, the goal for San Francisco was to have 95 percent of residents sheltering in place with 24 hours, requiring Category B performance for buildings. Although not all utilities might be functioning within 24 hours, the goal was to keep citizens in their homes and in their neighborhoods. The table provides the target states of recovery for San



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