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Committee on the Evaluation of the Drakes Bay Oyster Company Special Use Permit DEIS and Peer
Review
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. 10000991 between the National Academy of Sciences
and the Department of the Interior, National Park Service. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or
recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect
the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
Cover art courtesy of NASA, NAP.
International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-26166-1
International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-26166-X
Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street,
NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001. (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/.
Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished
scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and
technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the
Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on
scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the
responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors
engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and
recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National
Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the
services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to
the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of
Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own
initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president
of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National
Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government,
the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both
Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and
vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON THE EVALUATION OF THE DRAKES BAY OYSTER COMPANY SPECIAL USE
PERMIT DEIS AND PEER REVIEW
DR. THOMAS C. MALONE, (CHAIR), University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
DR. JOAO FERREIRA, New University of Lisbon, Portugal
DR. W. MICHAEL HANEMANN, Arizona State University
DR. EVAMARIA KOCH, University of Maryland
DR. JENNIFER MIKSIS-OLDS, Penn State University
DR. BRYAN PIJANOWSKI, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
DR. JENNIFER RUESINK, University of Washington
PROF. CHARLES SIMENSTAD, University of Washington
MS. LUCINDA LOW SWARTZ, ESQ., Environmental Consultant, Washington, DC
DR. PAUL THOMPSON, University of Aberdeen, UK
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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
ROBERT A. DUCE, Chair, Texas A&M University (retired), College Station, Texas
EDWARD A. BOYLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park
SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover
CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
JORGE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez
KEITH R. CRIDDLE, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau
JODY W. DEMING, University of Washington, Seattle
ROBERT HALLBERG, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton University, New Jersey
ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis
KIHO KIM, American University, Washington, DC
BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California
JOHN A. ORCUTT, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla
JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (retired), Port Angeles, Washington
STEVEN E. RAMBERG, Penn State Applied Research Lab, Washington, DC
ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts
DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
PETER L. TYACK, University of Saint Andrews, United Kingdom
DON WALSH, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon
DAWN J. WRIGHT, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California
JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
Ex-Officio
MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas
OSB Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer
KIM WADDELL, Senior Program Officer
SHERRIE FORREST, Associate Program Officer
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate (until 8/22/12)
JESSICA DUTTON, Research Associate
HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant
LAUREN HARDING, Senior Program Assistant
v
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Acknowledgments
This report was greatly enhanced by public input in advance and during the committee's
meeting. The committee would like to thank those who were available to answer questions during the
public meeting and prepare public comments. The written submissions and the public comments
helped set the stage for fruitful discussions in the closed sessions that followed.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report
Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical
comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to
ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to
the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the
integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation
in their review of this report:
Dr. Ann Bowles, Hubbs-SeaWorld Research Institute, San Diego, California
Dr. Keith R. Criddle, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau
Dr. James W. Fourqurean, Florida International University
Dr. Eileen Hofmann, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
Dr. Joel A. Mintz, Nova Southeastern University Shepard Broad Law Center
Dr. Francis O'Beirn, Marine Institute, Galway, Ireland
Dr. Robert T. Paine (NAS), University of Washington
Dr. Kenneth A. Rose, Louisiana State University
Dr. Peter L. Tyack, University of St Andrews, Scotland
Dr. Alan Washburn (NAE), U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and
suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see
the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Paul
Risser, University of Oklahoma, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, and Dr. Bonnie
McCay (NAS), Rutgers University, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were
responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in
accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered.
Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the
institution.
vii
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Contents
Summary 1
Chapter 1 Introduction 7
Drakes Estero 7
Shellfish Mariculture 1932 - 2012 7
Policy Context 8
Statement of Task 10
National Environmental Policy Act 10
Approach and Organization of the Report 11
Chapter 2 Framing of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement 13
Distinguishing Potential Impacts of Alternatives B, C, and D 13
Baseline Conditions 14
Scaling Impacts on Drakes Estero and Changes in Ecosystem
Conditions 14
Chapter 3 Review of the Scientific Information and Analysis Presented in the Draft 17
Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS)
Science-Based Levels of Uncertainty 17
Environmental Impacts of the Alternatives 17
Chapter 4 Review of the Atkins Report 43
Overall Evaluation 43
Resource Categories Addressed in the Atkins Report 44
Chapter 5 Conclusions 47
Overall Assessment of Conclusions Presented in the DEIS 47
Suggestions for DEIS Revisions and Reducing Uncertainty in the
Conclusions 51
References 53
Appendix A Statement of Task 63
Appendix B Committee Biographies 65
Appendix C NPS Intensity Definitions 69
Appendix D Committee Meeting Agenda and Participant List 73
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