Scientific Review of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement

Drakes Bay Oyster Company Special Use Permit

Committee on the Evaluation of the Drakes Bay Oyster Company Special Use Permit DEIS and Peer Review

Ocean Studies Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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Committee on the Evaluation of the Drakes Bay Oyster Company Special Use Permit DEIS and Peer Review Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. 10000991 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Interior, National Park Service. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Cover art courtesy of NASA, NAP. International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-26166-1 International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-26166-X Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001. (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/. Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON THE EVALUATION OF THE DRAKES BAY OYSTER COMPANY SPECIAL USE PERMIT DEIS AND PEER REVIEW DR. THOMAS C. MALONE, (CHAIR), University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science DR. JOAO FERREIRA, New University of Lisbon, Portugal DR. W. MICHAEL HANEMANN, Arizona State University DR. EVAMARIA KOCH, University of Maryland DR. JENNIFER MIKSIS-OLDS, Penn State University DR. BRYAN PIJANOWSKI, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana DR. JENNIFER RUESINK, University of Washington PROF. CHARLES SIMENSTAD, University of Washington MS. LUCINDA LOW SWARTZ, ESQ., Environmental Consultant, Washington, DC DR. PAUL THOMPSON, University of Aberdeen, UK iv

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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD ROBERT A. DUCE, Chair, Texas A&M University (retired), College Station, Texas EDWARD A. BOYLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California JORGE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez KEITH R. CRIDDLE, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau JODY W. DEMING, University of Washington, Seattle ROBERT HALLBERG, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton University, New Jersey ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis KIHO KIM, American University, Washington, DC BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California JOHN A. ORCUTT, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (retired), Port Angeles, Washington STEVEN E. RAMBERG, Penn State Applied Research Lab, Washington, DC ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California PETER L. TYACK, University of Saint Andrews, United Kingdom DON WALSH, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon DAWN J. WRIGHT, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts Ex-Officio MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas OSB Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Director CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer KIM WADDELL, Senior Program Officer SHERRIE FORREST, Associate Program Officer PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate (until 8/22/12) JESSICA DUTTON, Research Associate HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant LAUREN HARDING, Senior Program Assistant v

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Acknowledgments This report was greatly enhanced by public input in advance and during the committee's meeting. The committee would like to thank those who were available to answer questions during the public meeting and prepare public comments. The written submissions and the public comments helped set the stage for fruitful discussions in the closed sessions that followed. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report: Dr. Ann Bowles, Hubbs-SeaWorld Research Institute, San Diego, California Dr. Keith R. Criddle, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau Dr. James W. Fourqurean, Florida International University Dr. Eileen Hofmann, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia Dr. Joel A. Mintz, Nova Southeastern University Shepard Broad Law Center Dr. Francis O'Beirn, Marine Institute, Galway, Ireland Dr. Robert T. Paine (NAS), University of Washington Dr. Kenneth A. Rose, Louisiana State University Dr. Peter L. Tyack, University of St Andrews, Scotland Dr. Alan Washburn (NAE), U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Paul Risser, University of Oklahoma, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, and Dr. Bonnie McCay (NAS), Rutgers University, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii

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Contents Summary 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 7 Drakes Estero 7 Shellfish Mariculture 1932 - 2012 7 Policy Context 8 Statement of Task 10 National Environmental Policy Act 10 Approach and Organization of the Report 11 Chapter 2 Framing of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement 13 Distinguishing Potential Impacts of Alternatives B, C, and D 13 Baseline Conditions 14 Scaling Impacts on Drakes Estero and Changes in Ecosystem Conditions 14 Chapter 3 Review of the Scientific Information and Analysis Presented in the Draft 17 Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) Science-Based Levels of Uncertainty 17 Environmental Impacts of the Alternatives 17 Chapter 4 Review of the Atkins Report 43 Overall Evaluation 43 Resource Categories Addressed in the Atkins Report 44 Chapter 5 Conclusions 47 Overall Assessment of Conclusions Presented in the DEIS 47 Suggestions for DEIS Revisions and Reducing Uncertainty in the Conclusions 51 References 53 Appendix A Statement of Task 63 Appendix B Committee Biographies 65 Appendix C NPS Intensity Definitions 69 Appendix D Committee Meeting Agenda and Participant List 73 ix

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