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1
Introduction
OVERVIEW
Following World War II, the U.S. national security strategy was to ensure technological superiority in all
critical military capabilities. Superiority was achieved through commitments to fundamental research in science
and engineering and to creating superior weapons systems. Staying ahead technologically required (1) a superior
STEM workforce within DOD, its private sector contractors, and academe; (2) significant and continuous invest-
ment in research and development; and (3) the development of rapidly deployable, high-quality systems, goods,
and services. Throughout the Cold War, this strategy, albeit not always perfectly implemented, proved effective
because the United States had both the commitment and the resources to maintain the superior technological infra-
structures and capabilities needed, and because the compelling national security mission and technical challenges
attracted top STEM talent. Many new technologies were created to serve national security purposes. Remarkably,
this overarching strategy did not change for nearly half a century, the longest enduring strategy in U.S. history.
However, in the 1990s a stream of global changes disrupted this strategy of complete technological superiority.
Though these changes derived from different sources, they were often interrelated and carried by the irrepressible
current of globalization. A major change in national and regional relationships and alliances followed the collapse
of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact and the substantial expansion in the number of contributors to and customers
in the global economy. Relationships between countries could be collaborative or adversarial depending on the
particular issue. The Internet became the primary and inexpensive means of communication and commerce, and
search engines such as Google made information freely accessible to essentially everyone worldwide, a departure
from the goal of information control during the Cold War. The globalization of talent, business, and markets became
the norm whereby even the smallest businesses could become global players. The rise and strength of emerging
economies became significant attractors of businesses, markets, and growth in a tightly connected, interdependent
global economy. China became the world's second largest economy in 2010, 3 years after a prediction published in
Rising Above the Gathering Storm that it would occur 10 years hence in 2016 (NAS, NAE, IOM, 2007, Figure 9.1
and p. 206). Accelerating change shortened the life cycle of goods, services, and knowledge and pressed industry
to move products to the marketplace more quickly, placing a premium on having a workforce prepared with needed
capabilities. Accelerating change required the military to respond more quickly, more often, and in new ways to
combat new and often unknown, non-state adversaries.
Since the 1990s, scientific and technological developments for national security are increasingly not located
in the United States (National Research Council, 2009; NRAC, 2010). The United States and DOD do not control
15
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16 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
all of the technology used for military purposes. In fact, this technology is increasingly originating in commercial
endeavors. The news media remind us almost daily that information, even ostensibly secure information, can no
longer be controlled reliably.
The United States does not lead in all areas of science and technology, and it may not be possible to regain that
leadership. The impact factor of research publications has long been held up as an indicator of a nation's leader-
ship in science and technology. After ranking first globally in research publication impact for decades, the United
States slipped to third in 2011, following the United Kingdom and Germany (Figure 11) despite maintaining the
highest national investment in research (Marshall and Travis, 2011). The 2010-2011 World Economic Forum in
Davos ranked the U.S. economic competitiveness fourth among 139 countries after it had ranked second a year
earlier and first a year before that (World Economic Forum, 2010, pp. 21 and 421). The Information Technology
and Innovation Foundation ranked the United States sixth in global innovation and competitiveness in 2009, down
from first in 1999 and earlier (Atkinson and Andes, 2009).
In 2008 the percentage of engineering graduates among all university graduates in the United States remained
among the lowest in the world, at 4.4 percent. The percentages of engineering graduates in some other countries
are as follows: Germany (12 percent), U.K. (6 percent), Finland (15 percent), France (14 percent), China (31 per-
cent), Japan (17 percent), S. Korea (25 percent), Taiwan (24 percent), Israel (10 percent), Russia (10 percent), and
Singapore (34 percent). The global average percentage of engineering graduates among the 93 countries shown in
an analysis by the National Science Foundation (NSF) (National Science Board, 2012, Appendix Table 2-32) is 13
percent, three times the U.S. rate. Among all 93 countries in the referenced NSF data, Mozambique most closely
resembles the United States, with engineering graduates at 4.5 percent and science and engineering graduates at
32 percent. Only 14 countries in the NSF analysis graduate a lower percentage of engineers than the United States:
Bangladesh, Brunei, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cuba, Gambia, Guyana, Lesotho, Luxembourg, Madagascar,
Namibia, Saudi Arabia, and Swaziland.
Since WWII, attracting the very top students from abroad to enroll in U.S. graduate programs and then stay
on in the United States to develop their engineering careers has largely compensated for the shortfall in U.S.-born
1.6
1.4
1.2
Normalized citation impact
1
0.8
0.6 China
France
0.4 Germany
Japan
0.2 UK
United States
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Year
FIGURE 11 Global research publication impact.
NOTE: Counts are national averages and are normalized to the average number of citations in the respective research discipline.
SOURCE: Marshall and Travis (2011).
1-1.eps
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INTRODUCTION 17
engineering talent available to the workforce. The United States was able to attract the most qualified international
talent by being the most technologically advanced country, by having a growing economy, by possessing a dispro-
portionate share of the world's finest research universities, and by committing to a world-leading higher education
and research culture with strong financial support by the U.S. government (e.g., through research assistantships,
funding for basic research, and support for research equipment). With less than 5 percent of the global popula-
tion but a quarter of its economy, the United States had the rare opportunity to attract the very best of the global
science and engineering talent pool to its workforce, and it capitalized on this remarkable, though unsustainable,
circumstance. In 2006 the most likely undergraduate alma mater of a U.S. PhD graduate in science and engineer-
ing was Tsinghua University in Beijing, followed closely by Peking University (Mervis, 2008). The University of
California, Berkeley, ranked third after having held first place for all earlier rankings. Ranked a close fourth, and
rising rapidly, was Seoul National University in Korea. In 2010, the most recent year for which data were avail-
able, Berkeley had regained the top spot, principally because students from Tsinghua and Beijing Universities,
graduating the top students in China, are not enrolling in U.S. PhD programs as they did earlier (Figure 12). The
2010-2011 World Economic Forum ranked the U.S. undergraduate higher education system 26th out of 139 coun-
tries and secondary education in mathematics and science 52nd (World Economic Forum, 2010, pp. 21 and 421).
The United States is no longer the beneficiary of uncompetitive higher education and job opportunities abroad
that had earlier inspired large numbers of international students and scholars to come to and remain in America.
As the standards of higher education and job opportunities abroad continue to rise, the competition in recruiting
top talent to the United States can only increase. The emerging economies of China and India now offer attrac-
tive opportunities for wealth and professional growth for scientists and engineers. International universities and
businesses are recruiting international students (and faculty) with first-class research facilities and opportunities,
a force with which the United States has never had to compete. And while the numbers of students from India and
China coming to the United States for graduate study remain high (Figure 13) and while they often pay their own
way, a look below the surface shows that those attending U.S. universities are no longer at the very top of their
national talent pool as they once were.1 Attractive opportunities in other countries have made recruitment of the
top talent a competitive challenge that the United States did not face in the past.
An April 2011 report from the Kauffman Foundation (Wadhwa et al., 2011) points to indicators that Indian
and Chinese residents in the United States are returning home in increasing numbers because of economic oppor-
tunities, access to local markets, and family ties. The Chinese Ministry of Education estimated that the number of
overseas returnees to China in 2009 increased 56 percent over the previous year, and in 2010 the number increased
another 33 percent over 2009 to a global total of 134,800 (China Daily, 2010, 2011). Over 80 percent of Chinese
returnees and 70 percent of Indian returnees indicated that the opportunity to start a business was more favorable
at home than in the United States. Many other countries, such as Taiwan, Singapore, and Ireland, are recruiting
high-quality S&T talents from abroad.
The challenges for the United States in the 21st century environment outlined above are significant, though
until recently the U.S. public and government tended to look inward and did not show evidence of comprehending
the seriousness of such challenges.
TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY DOD STEM WORKFORCE ENVIRONMENT
In this rapidly changing world, the technologies of importance to the military are created globally in increasing
numbers, including those widely employed in U.S. weapons systems. The development of a weapons system--
including all components, tools, and raw materials--entirely in the United States is uncommon if not altogether
nonexistent. Efforts to predict the technologies that will be most needed by the military beyond the near term
have always been unreliable. Resource limitations and the expanding range of S&T developments globally will
nonetheless require DOD to select the S&T areas where it will maintain technological superiority. However, it
will also be important for DOD to retain the capacity to ramp up programs quickly to become competitive in
1For example, the number of graduates from India's premier technical university, the Indian Institutes of Technology, who seek graduate study
and research opportunities in the United States declined from 80 percent in 1997 to just 16 percent in 2011. See the Times of India (2011).
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18 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
700
600
Univ of California
-
Berkeley
500
Univ of Science and
400 Tech China
Number
Peking Univ
300
200 Tsinghua Univ
100
Seoul National Univ
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
FIGURE 12 Baccalaureate origins of PhDs from the largest feeder schools, 2001-2010.
SOURCE: National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, National Science Foundation.
1-2.eps
emerging areas by making targeted R&D investments to maintain core competencies and to be highly adaptable
in its management practices.
The environment for the DOD STEM workforce, including its military and civilian employees and its private
sector contractors, has changed radically since 1991 and the end of the Cold War. During the nearly half-century of
the Cold War, the DOD STEM workforce took on the clear and compelling national security mission to maintain
technological superiority in weapons and military systems. National security was widely accepted and supported
as the highest priority for the United States. No other national issue has galvanized public support over such an
extended period. The national security mission attracted a career-committed workforce with the highest technical
Other locations,
45,160 India 61,420
Canada, 3,120
Turkey, 3,480
Taiwan, 6,530
China, 42,440
South Korea,
10,120 TOTAL = 172,270
FIGURE 13 Foreign graduate students enrolled in S&E fields, 2009.
1-3.eps
SOURCE: National Science Board (2012), Appendix Table 2-24.
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INTRODUCTION 19
Budget authority (millions of 2005 dolalrs)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
FIGURE 14 Total budget authority of DOD military programs, 1985-2009 (in constant 2005 dollars).
NOTE: Includes base budget and overseas contingency operations.
1-4.eps
SOURCE: OMB historical tables. Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/
budauth.xls.
capabilities and devotion to the security challenge. Because the newest technologies often served national security
needs, the technical work itself attracted STEM employees of the highest technical capabilities.
The culture of the DOD STEM workforce during the Cold War was set by the widely understood, long-standing
foundation of continuous national support, workforce stability, workforce quality, technical challenge, and national
service. Those recruited to the workforce knew what to expect and what was expected of them. That stable founda-
tion was disrupted by the stream of global changes noted above following the Cold War. The United States shifted
national priorities toward domestic and social issues rather than foreign policy, and within foreign policy toward
economic rather than political and military issues (Auger, 1997). Some of the concerns that received increasing
attention included the demands of expanding populations for social services, the decline of the industrial base,
the retraining of the workforce, the rebuilding of cities, the provision of clean, affordable energy, the protection of
the environment, needed attention to addressing race, gender, and class inequalities, and the ability to compete in
international markets (Crotty, 1995). Military spending declined substantially between 1985 and 1993, remained
relatively flat until 1999, and then increased dramatically following the attacks on New York and Washington on
September 11, 2001 (Figure 14). The reductions in DOD workforce and programs in the early 1990s signaled a
transition to a new, as yet undefined culture for DOD S&T and its workforce, with a recent study finding that in
the Air Force "career fields requiring a STEM degree may have experienced below-average retention or promotion
rates" (National Research Council, 2010). The recession of 2008, the ongoing troop withdrawals from the Middle
East, and the current national debt crisis will result in substantial DOD budget and program reductions, thereby
adding uncertainty to the new culture for DOD S&T and the DOD STEM workforce.
The greatest emerging threat to U.S. national security today is not as universally apparent and as compelling
as the possibility of thermonuclear war was during the Cold War. The possible future adversaries, their geographi-
cal region, and the type and the scale of conflicts are also less certain. The stability of the adversary, the technical
challenges, and the compelling mission that characterized the national security culture throughout the Cold War
do not characterize today's environment. Adaptability has replaced stability for today's challenges in workforce
preparation and technical focus.
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20 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
THE CURRENT STUDY
This study by the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and the National Research Council (NRC) was
requested by the Honorable Zachary J. Lemnios, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineer-
ing. Over an 18-month period, the NRC's Committee on STEM Workforce Needs for the U.S. Department of
Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base (Appendix A) convened four meetings dedicated in part to open,
information-gathering sessions and two closed meetings dedicated to deliberation and writing. Among the former
was a workshop held on August 1 and 2, 2011, in Rosslyn, Virginia, to gather a broad range of views from the
public and private sectors, including major defense contractors and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), all
of whom are stakeholders in the future STEM workforce. A report issued in November 2011 summarized the
views expressed by individual workshop participants. An interim report was issued in June 2012 for the purpose
of assisting the ASD(R&E) with its fiscal year (FY) 2014 planning process and with laying the groundwork for
future years (National Research Council, 2012). Overall, this 18-month study has assessed the STEM capabilities
that DOD needs in order to meet its goals, objectives, and priorities; to assess whether the current DOD work-
force and strategy will meet those needs; and to identify and evaluate options and recommend strategies that the
department could use to help meet its future STEM needs. The statement of task for the study is given in Box 1-1.
BOX 11
Statement of Task
A joint National Academy of Engineering (NAE)-National Research Council (NRC) study committee
will assess the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) capabilities that the U.S. De-
partment of Defense (DOD) needs to meet its goals, objectives, and priorities; assess whether the current
DOD workforce and strategy will meet those needs; and identify and evaluate options and recommend
strategies that the department could use to help meet its future STEM needs.
The study work scope will involve five major tasks:
1.Review the current and projected STEM workforce demands over the next five years relevant to
DOD needs and to the needs of the industrial base supporting DOD programs and missions, includ-
ing an overview by science and engineering discipline, quality, and skill level.
2.Provide an assessment of current limitations to meeting these needs over the next five years and
an analysis of observations by recognized experts on the forces shaping limitations on future needs.
3.Review alternative options for overcoming identified limiting factors and other impediments to fulfill-
ing near-term DOD STEM needs.
4.Identify emerging science and technology fields that will likely have significant impact on the DOD
and national needs over the next 5-15 years and where targeted national investments could have
the most impact on developing human resources in the identified fields.
5.Provide an overview and analysis of expert views on the capacity of the nation's higher education
enterprise in meeting the necessary scale and scope of the STEM workforce needs for DOD and
the U.S. defense industrial base.
The study committee will convene a two-day public workshop on U.S. defense-related workforce needs.
The workshop will feature invited expert presentations and discussions. The committee will develop the
workshop agenda, select and invite speakers and discussants, and moderate the discussions. Experts to be
invited to participate in the workshop will be drawn from the membership of prior NRC studies and related
activities, the public and private sectors, and from academic organizations. Following the conclusion of the
workshop, a summary report of the event will be prepared by the committee. There will be one administra-
tive progress report and one interim report, as well as a final consensus report based on the committee's
work on the five study tasks, including the information presented in the workshop.
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INTRODUCTION 21
The balance of this report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 discusses rapidly evolving areas of science
and engineering having potential for significant impact on DOD planning and operations. Chapter 3 elucidates
trends in the overall STEM labor force and discusses most likely future scenarios for DOD. Chapter 4 discusses
the limitations faced by DOD and the industrial base in meeting its STEM workforce needs. Chapter 5 discusses
the educational institutions that feed and maintain DOD's STEM workforce and some impediments DOD faces
within this enterprise. Lastly, Chapter 6 offers a perspective on ensuring an adequate workforce capability in an
uncertain future.
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