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4
Limitations to Meeting the Workforce
Needs of DOD and the Industrial Base
The limitations faced by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) and its industrial base in meeting their science,
technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce needs in both the near and long term are discussed
in this chapter. While there is no evidence that a shortage of workers with the STEM skills necessary to meet the
workforce needs of DOD and the industrial base currently exists, except in selected areas such as cybersecurity
and selected intelligence fields, meeting the workforce needs associated with emerging technologies in the light of
existing workforce trends and DOD policies could be problematic. First this chapter examines some of the supply
and demand issues shaping the limitations likely to be faced by DOD and the industrial base in the coming years,
and it then recommends some approaches that DOD might take to mitigate these limitations. 1
SUPPLY-SIDE ISSUES
One overarching issue is whether high-performing students enter the STEM pipeline in sufficient numbers to
meet the growing demand for STEM-educated workers, as discussed in Chapter 3. Data from the Programme for
International Student Assessment (PISA) (OCED, 2011)2 on the science and mathematics literacy of 15-year-olds
worldwide suggest that while the proficiency in math, science, and reading of U.S. students lies in the middle rank
of member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the percentage
of top-performing students achieving level 5 or 6 (the two highest) is nonetheless high compared to that of other
member countries; moreover, the United States produces twice as many high-performing students in absolute terms
as does the next largest producer--Japan, with 40 percent of the U.S. population (Salzman, 2012; Salzman and
Lowell, 2008). Data on the supply side of the pipeline show the following:
· Over the period 1993-2009, interest in pursuing a STEM degree in college remained relatively stable, with
the percent of college freshmen intending to major in a STEM field ranging from 21 to 26 percent. 2010 saw a
1In this chapter, unless otherwise noted, STEM includes the physical sciences, biological/agricultural sciences, mathematics/statistics,
computer sciences, and engineering.
2Further information is available at http://www.pisa.oecd.org.
83
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84 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
new high of 27 percent, largely due to increases in those intending to study the biological/agricultural sciences
and engineering.3
· With the exception of computer science, interest in specific STEM bachelor's degrees has increased con-
sistently over time, with biological/agricultural sciences and engineering the most popular. In computer science,
the number of bachelor's degrees awarded increased dramatically from 1998 to 2004 but fell sharply through 2008
and remained flat in 2009.4
· The percent of all bachelor's degrees awarded in a STEM field has been stable, ranging from 16 percent
to 17 percent over the period 2000-2009.5
· Comparing STEM degrees awarded, on the one hand, to freshmen intentions, on the other, suggests that
many students who enter college intending to get a STEM degree do not ultimately graduate with one. For example,
approximately 22 percent of freshmen who entered a 4-year college or university in 2006 reported the intention
to major in STEM;6 in 2009, only about 16 percent of degrees were in a STEM field.7 This phenomenon is most
notable in engineering and, to a lesser extent, the physical sciences. 8
· More than 50 percent of the doctorates awarded in the years 2006-2009 were in a STEM field, about a 9
percent increase from the beginning of the decade.9
· Among employed people in 2006 who had graduated in academic years 2003-2005 with a bachelor's degree
in a STEM field, about 63 percent were in a STEM or STEM-related occupation; the comparable number was
roughly 81 percent for those graduating with a STEM master's degree10 and even higher for those at the doctoral
level.
The U.S. economy is becoming more dependent on STEM workers. Indeed, as noted in Chapter 3, STEM
occupations are projected to grow slightly faster than other occupations. Underrepresented groups such as women
and non-Asian minorities are potential target groups for increases in the STEM workforce; STEM occupations
pay above the average for these groups, and adding them would increase diversity.
Indeed, recent data indicate the following:
· Women accounted for approximately 57 percent of all bachelor's degrees earned over the years 2000-2009.
The percentage of bachelor's degrees women earned in STEM fields during this period ranged betwen 10 and 11
percent; for men, however, the percentage of degrees earned in STEM fields ranged between 23 and 25 percent,
more than twice the rate for women.11
· Although the share of African-Americans and Latinos in the overall pool of college students has been grow-
ing over the past 3 decades to about 26 percent of all undergraduates (including those seeking a 2-year degree), they
still account for less than their 33 percent share of the college-age population would imply. Moreover, minorities
(other than Asians) are even more underrepresented in STEM fields. While the overall percentage of 24-year-olds
3The other broad categories under consideration are physical sciences; mathematics/statistics; computer sciences; and engineering. Not
included are social/behavioral sciences. See Appendix Table 2-12 in National Science Board (2012).
4Computer science, narrowly defined, is a relatively small field compared to other degree fields leading to employment in computer-related
occupations such as electrical engineering. Recent data (see IPEDS) indicates that bachelor's degrees in computer science are once again ris-
ing. See Appendix Table 2-18 in National Science Board (2012).
5See Appendix Table 2-19 in National Science Board (2012).
6See Appendix Table 2-12 in National Science Board (2012).
7See Appendix Table 2-18 in National Science Board (2012).
8Note, however, that an examination by Xie and Killewald (2012) of three cohorts of high school seniors (1972, 1982, and 1992) found
that "there is little evidence that science suffers from a `leaky pipeline' during the college years that disproportionately steers students away
from scientific fields." Moreover, according to Xie and Killewald, "teenagers' expectations of their future educational outcomes are full of
noise" and "many students shift into and out of science, especially around the time of entering college." Further information is available in
Xie and Killewald (2012).
9See Appendix Table 2-27 in National Science Board (2012).
10See Tables 35 and 36 in National Science Foundation (2010).
11In addition, from 2000 to 2009, the share of all bachelor's degrees awarded to women declined in computer sciences (by 10 percentage
points), mathematics (by 5 percentage points), and engineering (by 2 percentage points). See Appendix Table 2-18 in National Science Board
(2012).
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LIMITATIONS TO MEETING THE WORKFORCE NEEDS OF DOD AND THE INDUSTRIAL BASE 85
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000
Surgeons $225,390
Family & general practitioners $173,860
Dentists, general $158,770
Lawyers $129,440
Computer & info systems managers $123,280
Financial managers $116,970
Physicists $112,020
Computer & info research scientists $103,150
Computer hardware engineers $101,600
Economists $99,350
Software developers, systems $97,960
Engineering teachers $96,480
Chemical engineers $94,590
Economics teachers $92,870
Personal financial advisors $91,220
Software developers, applications $90,410
Electrical engineers $87,770
Management analysts $87,260
Medical scientists (researchers) $86,710
Biology teachers $86,570
Physics teachers $86,560
Financial analysts $86,040
Mechanical engineers $82,480
Civil engineers $82,280
Chemistry teachers $80,070
Industrial engineers $78,450
Computer science teachers $78,190
Mathematical science teachers $73,480
Chemists $73,240
Microbiologists $72,030
Biological scientists $71,310
FIGURE 41 Annual wage estimates for select occupations, May 2010.
4-1.eps
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Employment Statistics, www.bls.gov/oes/.
in the United States holding a STEM degree is 6 percent, it is only 2.7 percent among African-Americans and 2.2
percent for Latinos (Mervis, 2010).
Not all indicators on the flow of talent into the STEM pipeline are promising:
· While there has been only a slight decline since 1977 in the percent of high school graduates who go on to
complete or enroll in a STEM field in college, the percentage of "talented" students (defined as the top quintile on
the ACT or SAT) doing so peaked for the 1992/1997 cohort and fell by almost 50 percent for the 2000/2005 cohort,
suggesting that these "talented" students are being attracted to degrees and careers other than STEM (Lowell et
al., 2009).12
12STEM includes the life and physical sciences, engineering, mathematics and information technology, and science and engineering techni-
cians (and excludes the social sciences).
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86 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
· While the retention of STEM graduates in STEM occupations 10 years after high school graduation rose, on
average, from 34.8 percent for the 1977/1987 cohort to 43.7 percent for the 1993/2003 cohort, retention in STEM
occupations for the most-talented group seemed to decline, although the decline was not statistically significant. 13
These data raise questions about the perceived attractiveness of STEM occupations relative to others available
to talented individuals. One issue is relative salaries. Evidence suggests that especially for males and U.S. citizens,
relative salaries do have a bearing on who does science (Stephan, 2012, pp. 5, 153-156). As data from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS) in Figure 41 (on the preceding page) show, with the exception of some IT-related occu-
pations, jobs in management, finance, the medical professions (primarily, medical doctors and dentists), and law
typically pay more on average than STEM occupations in either industry or academe. Moreover, postsecondary
faculty positions in STEM fields often require many more years of education and training than for these other
occupations, with the exception of some medical specialties.
Furthermore, the earnings profile over a career varies by occupation. For example, according to Stephan (2012),
early-career PhD engineers (i.e., those who have had their doctorate for less than 10 years) earn about 1.6 times
more than those with a bachelor's degree in any field who are aged 25-34. Early career PhD physical scientists
earn about 1.4 times more, whereas early career PhD life scientists earn less than 1.3 times more (Stephan, 2012,
p. 154). The picture is no better when one examines the relative earnings of late career scientists, that is, those 10
to 29 years into their career.
Taking into account the cost of obtaining a PhD in terms of earnings forgone during the years pursuing the
degree and subsequent years of training as a postdoctoral fellow, Stephan (2012; p. 157) estimates that the pres-
ent value of an MBA degree (which typically takes no more than 2 years to complete) is, on average, about $3.2
million dollars, while the present value of the PhD (which often takes 7 or more years to complete) is much lower
at about $2 million dollars (Stephan, 2012). Furthermore, Stephan finds that those with MBAs from the best pro-
grams can expect to earn (over their lifetime) four to five times more than the average MBA,14 while PhDs hired
at top research universities can expect to earn (over their lifetime) only about three times more than the average
PhD (Stephan, 2012).
The Role of Temporary Residents in Meeting STEM Needs
Using data on the composition of the STEM workforce based on the 2000 decennial census (National Survey
of College Graduates 2003), Table 41 adapted from Levin and Barker (2010) shows the initial entry15 visa of
STEM16-educated (by highest degree earned) migrants in the United States as of 2003 by birth region and entry
cohort. Several trends are evident:
· The entry visa types have changed over time, with temporary visas now outnumbering permanent visas
(i.e., green cards). See Figure 42.
· The country of origin of these migrants has changed dramatically over the decades, with migrants from
Asia, especially from China and India, growing much faster than migrants from Europe. See Figure 43.
· Among the temporary visas types, temporary work visas (primarily H1-B) have grown the fastest and are
now nearly as plentiful as temporary study visas. See Figure 42. Nonetheless, commercial firms continue to cite
the lack of H-1B visas as a significant problem in hiring needed talent.
13The change in retention from 44.8 percent to 43.2 percent.
14At least temporarily, the financial crisis has dampened the expected returns to careers in finance.
15For a period of at least 6 months.
16Excludes those educated in the social sciences.
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LIMITATIONS TO MEETING THE WORKFORCE NEEDS OF DOD AND THE INDUSTRIAL BASE 87
TABLE 41 STEM-Educated Migrants in the United States in 2003 by Birth Region (Country), Initial Entry
Visa Type, and Cohort
Temporary Temporary Temporary Temporary Other
Region/Country All Visas # Green Card % Work % Study % Depend. % %
Before 1970s
All 315,452 51.3 1.4 28.6 13.0 5.7
Europe 97,041 66.7 1.9 11.6 16.6 3.2
Asia 118,692 31.2 1.3 52.7 10.9 3.8
China 19,819 27.9 1.0 58.5 7.4 5.3
India 21,186 25.6 1.0 67.4 5.7 0.4
During 1970s
All 456,977 48.4 6.4 29.1 9.2 6.9
Europe 52,162 54.4 10.3 15.8 8.5 11.0
Asia 308,797 49.2 6.2 31.2 8.6 4.8
China 9,792 37.1 0.0 56.6 4.6 1.7
India 67,218 58.2 3.0 28.2 9.6 1.0
During 1980s
All 645,561 42.5 9.3 31.9 7.2 9.1
Europe 93,985 37.8 18.6 20.4 8.7 14.4
Asia 408,471 44.9 7.1 34.8 6.7 6.4
China 58,680 23.5 1.8 62.6 10.9 1.2
India 83,128 50.5 4.4 35.3 4.7 5.2
During 1990s
All 896,143 26.7 25.1 28.6 10.9 8.7
Europe 186,038 38.4 19.3 21.7 6.7 13.8
Asia 525,352 21.7 26.6 32.7 14.1 4.8
China 110,746 7.6 14.6 57.1 17.6 3.0
India 205,917 19.6 36.1 26.6 14.6 3.1
Note: Numbers are subject to rounding errors.
SOURCE: Adapted from Levin and Barker (2010).
During 1990s 26.7 25.1 28.6 10.9 8.7
Green card
During 1980s 42.5 9.3 31.9 7.2 9.1
Temporary work
Temporary study
During 1970s 48.4 29.1 9.2 6.9 Temporary dependent
Temporary other
Before 1970s 51.3 28.6 13
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percent of visas
FIGURE 42 STEM-educated migrants in the United States in 2003 by initial entry visa type and cohort. NOTE: Numbers
are subject to rounding errors. 4-2.eps
SOURCE: Levin and Barker (2010).
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88 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
600,000
500,000
Number of visas
400,000 Europe
Asia
300,000
China
200,000 India
100,000
0
Before During During During
1970s 1970s 1980s 1990s
FIGURE 43 STEM-educated migrants in the United States in 2003 by birth region (country) and cohort. NOTE: Numbers of
visas for Asia includes those for China and India. 4-3.eps
SOURCE: Levin and Barker (2010).
Temporary Work Visas
H-1B visas are an important vehicle by which migrants enter the STEM workforce. Such visas likely account
for the largest number of highly skilled workers who are entering the country with temporary work visas. 17 These
visas are typically issued for 3 years and can be renewed for an additional 3-year period. The visa was started
in 1990 with a cap of 65,000 per year; in 2001 the cap was tripled to 195,000 per year for 3 years but has now
returned to its original level. Universities and non-profit research institutions are exempted from the numerical caps
entirely (Wasem, 2012). Starting in 2005, an additional 20,000 visas were granted to students who had received
master's degrees or doctorates from U.S. schools and were thus exempt from the cap of 65,000 (P.L. 108-447). In
2010, the United States issued more than 118,000 H-1B visas. This was down almost 25 percent from the nearly
155,000 issued in 2007, but this is likely only a temporary downturn due to the poor economy in the United States.
The available data suggest that most H1-B visa recipients work in science and engineering (S&E) and S&E-related
occupations. In 2009, 35 percent of new H-1B visa recipients were employed in the category of computer-related
occupations.18
Considering educational attainment, in FY 2009, 58 percent of new H-1B visa recipients had an advanced
degree, including 40 percent with master's degrees, 6 percent with professional degrees, and 13 percent with
doctorates. The distribution by degree-level varies by occupation, with 83 percent of mathematical and physical
scientists holding advanced degrees (44 percent with doctorates). Among life scientists, 87 percent hold advanced
degrees (61 percent with doctorates).19 It is likely that a substantial number of those with PhD degrees are in
relatively low-paid postdoctoral positions at U.S. universities.
Overall, these data demonstrate both the use of the H-1B visa as a way for foreign graduates of U.S. schools
to undertake postdoctoral training or otherwise pursue careers in the United States, at least temporarily, as well
as the importance of the H-1B visa in bringing foreign-educated individuals to the United States, especially in
STEM occupations.
The use of H1-B visas to meet STEM workforce needs in the United States is, however, a continuing source
of controversy. Industry argues that these workers are meeting shortages of workers with particular skills; others
argue that the inflow of these workers may be discouraging U.S. citizens from pursuing education and jobs in these
skill areas (Levin et al., 2004). Likely, the answer lies somewhere in between these two positions. It is doubtful that
17Other categories of temporary work visas include the J-1 Exchange Visa, which is often given to lower-skilled workers and summer visitors
and the L-1 Visa issued for intracompany transfers. The latter category has been growing very rapidly and from 2006 to 2010 averaged about
76,000 annually. See Figure 3-36 in National Science Board (2012). Here the NSF definition of S&E is utilized.
18See Appendix Table 3-19 in National Science Board (2012).
19See Chapter 3 in National Science Board (2012).
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LIMITATIONS TO MEETING THE WORKFORCE NEEDS OF DOD AND THE INDUSTRIAL BASE 89
DOD's special concerns about the percentage of STEM graduate students who are "clearable" would be influential
in resolving such a debate. Changes in H1-B visa policies that largely affect STEM occupations will have reper-
cussions for the pool of highly skilled applicants available to DOD and its industrial base. In the short run, further
constraints on H1-B visa entrants may make it more difficult for DOD to recruit citizens if these constraints increase
competition for them in the private sector. In the longer run, however, if market forces cause wages to increase
following a tightening of H-1B visa policy, more citizens may eventually pursue careers in STEM occupations.
Sandia National Laboratories has a hiring pathway by which a foreign national can become a member of its
technical staff. The first stage for the prospective staff member is to become established as a staff member (e.g.,
in a postdoctoral position or as a limited-term employee). Next they are converted to Foreign National Interim
Technical Staff, which includes a requirement that they concurrently pursue a path to U.S. citizenship. Due to the
classified nature of Sandia's work, the prospective staff member must obtain the necessary security clearances and
successfully pass a comprehensive counterintelligence investigation. Upon completion of the latter, or receipt of
citizenship, the individual becomes a member of the technical staff.
Temporary Study Visas
Non-citizens (primarily with temporary study visas) also play an important role in the production of S&E
degrees in the United States, primarily at the master's and doctoral level. 20 In 2009, foreign students earned 38
percent of U.S. S&E master's degrees. In computer sciences and engineering, however, they earned 46 percent and
43 percent, respectively, of all such degrees.21 And within engineering, they earned more than half of the master's
degrees in electrical and chemical engineering. At the doctoral level, temporary residents earned 35 percent of all
S&E degrees awarded in 2009. But they accounted for 57 percent of doctoral degrees awarded in engineering,
44 percent in physical sciences, and 54 percent in computer sciences, although only 29 percent in the biological
sciences and 8 percent in medical/other life sciences.22
A large number of these temporary residents, especially at the doctoral level, stay in the United States for
at least 5 years after graduation, although the numbers vary by source country. Analysis of data from the Social
Security Administration (Finn, 2012) shows an average 5-year stay rate of 62 percent in 2009 for temporary resi-
dents receiving a science or engineering doctorate in 2004, with China and India having the highest percentages
at 89 percent and 79 percent, respectively. For the 1995, 1997, and 1999 cohorts of foreign national science and
engineering doctorate recipients, the stay rates tend to fall slightly from 6 to 10 years after graduation, although
stay rates for these cohorts are considerably higher than the 10-year stay rates of earlier cohorts (1991, 1993).
While there are tremendous differences in stay rates by source country, these have remained stable over time.
Moreover, despite media reports of a "brain drain" of foreign scientists and engineers out of the United States, 23
Finn (2012) states that "stay rates are more likely to increase in coming years than to decline" because (1) the
share of foreign science and engineering doctoral degrees recipients coming from countries with the highest stay
rates has been increasing and (2) those intending to stay in the United States after graduation as reported in the
Survey of Earned Doctorates have increased since 2004 (p. 14). Finally, in an earlier report, Finn (2010) posits
that the performance of the U.S. economy may affect stay rates, although stay rates declined only modestly during
the recession of the early 2000s.
Security Clearances
DOD and its associated contractors have special and legitimate needs to hire STEM personnel who can obtain
security clearances. Under current practices this generally requires U.S. citizenship, and special problems therefore
can arise in hiring in STEM fields in which large proportions of students at U.S. universities are foreign nationals.
20At the bachelor's level, non-citizens account for less than 5 percent of the degrees awarded, although in 2009 they accounted for about 9
percent of the degrees in electrical and industrial engineering. See Appendix Table 2-19 in National Science Board (2012).
21See Appendix Table 2-26 in National Science Board (2012).
22See Appendix Table 2-28 in National Science Board (2012).
23See, for example: Herbst (2009); Lee (2011); Wadhwa (2011).
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90 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
Security clearances are typically classified at one of three levels: confidential, secret, or top secret. Gaining
access to sensitive compartmented information or special access programs can also necessitate a top secret clear-
ance. DOD-issued clearances constitute the vast majority of initial clearances (Government Accountability Office,
2010). In the context of the pool of STEM workers available to DOD, the need to obtain a security clearance is a
two-fold source of constraint on supply. First, the time required to obtain a security clearance for citizens represents
an impediment to success in DOD's hiring process. Second, this requirement reduces the pool of the potential
STEM workforce for DOD in fields in which non-citizens represent substantial fractions. While this is not much
of a problem at the BS level in engineering, where international students represent only a small percentage, 24 it
is a significant problem for positions requiring graduate engineering degrees, where the percentage of temporary
residents, as noted earlier, is much higher.
A recent study of personnel security clearances found that progress has been made in reducing the time to
adjudicate applications (Government Accountability Office, 2010). Specifically, the report noted that DOD was
able to meet the goal of adjudicating 90 percent of its applications within 60 days. The process also allows for the
DOD to give interim clearances at the secret level once an investigation on an individual has been opened and no
initial problems have been identified (Department of Defense, 1999; Secretary of the Navy, 2006). (In contrast,
temporary access at a top secret level can be granted only if the applicant already has a secret or a confidential
level clearance.) Otherwise, a secret level interim clearance can be given to those requesting top secret level access
and only if a local review of the personnel security questionnaire (PSQ) is found to reveal no eligibility issues.
Those DOD commands that do not impose restrictions for facility access according to security clearances could
potentially hire STEM researchers, with the caveat that their continued employment requires a security clearance
at the appropriate level. Despite recent improvements, it is possible that some top STEM talent, who can be hired
on the spot by private-sector recruiters, may be deterred from pursuing DOD careers by delays in their appoint-
ments because of clearance issues.
The system of personnel security clearances is far from being the only set of controls placed on those perform-
ing defense work or on the goods and services they produce, including their export or so-called deemed export. A
technology on the U.S. Munitions List, administered by the U.S. Department of State, is subject to export controls
(Congressional Research Service, 2009). Another set of controls applies to so-called dual-use technologies on the
Commerce Control List (CCL), administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Activities conducted within
the United States, such as sharing knowledge of a technology with a foreign national residing domestically, may
constitute a deemed export, requiring a license or exemption under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations
(National Research Council, 2009a, p. 34). The system of controls and their implementation is formidable, and
interested readers are urged to consult the substantial secondary literature on this topic (Center for Security and
International Studies, 2005).
Unfortunately, U.S. government policies regarding the funding of higher education (and particularly graduate
education) in STEM fields lack coordination with policies regarding temporary visas for education and work as
well as for visas for permanent residence. For example, large amounts of financial support from federal agen-
cies--via research grants--are used by U.S. universities to finance the graduate education of international students
in STEM fields. Immigration policies allow universities essentially unlimited access to such students, as well as
to international "postdocs," i.e., those who have earned PhDs in countries other than the United States and then
come to work as postdocs in U.S. university labs with financial support from federal research grants. Surprisingly
there are almost no credible data on this apparently large and growing population of international postdocs, though
it appears that the largest country of origin is China. Meanwhile, as noted earlier, more than 100,000 temporary
skilled workers each year are admitted with H1-B visas, mostly in STEM and related IT fields, for temporary but
multi-year work. Yet the number of permanent visas available based on these same skills is much smaller, resulting
in large backlogs of temporary visa holders seeking permanent visas. 25
24In 2009, only 5.8 percent of the undergraduate degrees in engineering were earned by temporary non-resident students. See, Appendix
Table 2-19 in National Science Board (2012).
25It now can take as long as 6 to 10 years to obtain the coveted "green" card that grants permanent residency to skilled-immigrant workers
from China and India, for example (Wadhwa et al., 2007). Moreover, Hira (2010) argues that "most of the top users of both the H-1B and L-1
visa programs sponsor very few, if any, of their workers for permanent residence."
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LIMITATIONS TO MEETING THE WORKFORCE NEEDS OF DOD AND THE INDUSTRIAL BASE 91
DEMAND-SIDE ISSUES
The DOD must compete with the civilian sector for job opportunities available to STEM-trained individuals.
Data provided by the Bureau of Labor statistics (BLS) can help gauge the strength of competing demands from
the civilian sector. BLS provides data on employment and wages, including employment projections by occupation
(see Chapter 3 of this report). It should be noted, however, that in addition to the array of occupations normally
included in STEM employment numbers--engineers, math and computer scientists, and life and physical scien-
tists--BLS included STEM technicians, architects, postsecondary teachers in STEM fields, STEM managers, and
those in STEM-related sales jobs in a recent study of the STEM workforce (Cover et al., 2011, pp. 3-15).
· As reported in Chapter 3, of the 7.3 million employed in STEM in the civilian sector in 2010 (accounting
for 5.1 percent of the overall workforce), the greatest number is employed in computer-related occupations. 26
· For the period 2010 to 2020, STEM employment is projected to grow by 16.9 percent, which is slightly
higher than the projected growth rate of 14.3 percent for the workforce as a whole.
Although these are projections premised on assumptions regarding future GDP growth which are themselves
subject to considerable uncertainty, they do at least suggest relatively strong growth in the civilian sector in those
occupational categories likely to be most sought after in the coming years by DOD and the industrial base. More-
over, Sauermann and Roach (2012) found in a survey of PhD students that "a faculty research career is the career
path most often considered `extremely attractive' and ranks among the most desirable careers for over 50% of life
scientists and physicists," suggesting that DOD will continue to face competition from academic institutions for
PhD-level scientists. There are several other important issues that DOD and its industrial base must confront in
order to meet its STEM workforce needs.
Pay
The DOD's ability to pay uniformed, civilian, and, indirectly, contractor STEM workers competitive salaries
will be a further issue to consider in developing DOD's STEM talent. Data from the Congressional Budget Office
and the Project on Government Oversight suggests that STEM workers above the bachelor's level are paid less in
the civilian federal workforce than in the private sector (POGO, 2011). For example, CBO finds that individuals
in the federal workforce with a professional or doctoral degree earn (in wages and benefits) about 18 percent less
than their counterparts in the private sector (Congressional Budget Office, 2012). Other federal agencies such
as NIH, NSF, and EPA have Title 42 authority "to appoint highly qualified consultants, scientists and engineers
at a pay scale [up to $250,000 per year] outside civil service laws described under Title 5" (National Research
Council, 2010). Salaries may impact the STEM pipeline by providing a signal to prospective STEM majors. 27 For
example, the number of persons graduating with a degree in computer science increased, with a lag of a few years,
as wages for computer programmers increased in the early 1990s. Furthermore, the number of persons graduating
with a degree in computer science declined as wages stagnated in the early 2000s (Figure 44). Similarly, Ryoo
and Rosen (2004), in their examination of the engineering labor market, found that engineering enrollment deci-
sions appeared to be sensitive to engineering career prospects (as measured by the present discounted value of
earnings in engineering relative to alternative professions). Lastly, a study of science and engineering PhD students
by Roach and Sauermann (2010) found that students "concerned with salary, access to resources, and the desire
to conduct downstream research and development" are more likely to prefer a career in industry over a career in
academia. These results suggest that pay is an important aspect of the value proposition the DOD can offer to a
prospective employee.
That said, extended discussion with a senior representative from DOD's Office of Personnel and Readiness-
suggested that there is no shortage of qualified applicants for the positions advertised on the DOD website and in
26Postsecondary STEM teachers are excluded from the estimate of STEM employment since the information available from the Bureau of
Labor Statistics' Employment Projections Program does not distinguish teaching field.
27Freeman (1976) established that "the supply of new entrants to engineering is highly responsive to economic conditions."
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92 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
70,000 $90,000
$80,000
60,000
Number of bachelor's degrees
$70,000
50,000
$60,000
Mean salary
40,000 $50,000
30,000 $40,000
$30,000
20,000
$20,000
10,000
$10,000
0 $0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Computer science bachelor awards Mean salary (2011 dollars)
FIGURE 44 Computer science bachelor's degree awards and computer programmer real mean salaries, 1992-2008.
SOURCE: Kuehn and Salzman (2013). 4-4.eps
trade papers.28 This is particularly true in the current job climate where available positions are scarce. The commit-
tee was advised that applicants come because they find attractive the opportunities for greater responsibility in the
government labs during the first 5 years of work than there would be in private labs. DOD entry level compensation
was declared to be sufficiently attractive, particularly when one includes bonuses. Another DOD source noted that
at the top end of the salary scale, somewhere around $160,000, the private sector enjoys a distinct advantage since
the government is not competitive. In these circumstances, one has to be concerned with the appropriateness of
the skills of the persons being hired and the potential deleterious impact on activities.
Quality of Work
To attract top talent, the work DOD and its industrial base offers must offer sufficient challenge and impor-
tance to excite the most creative and highly skilled workers, and to motivate them to achieve peak performance.
"Pay for performance" personnel policies can be implemented, but if the work is not sufficiently exciting, pay
alone will not be enough.
In the past, major DOD procurement programs have been a sufficient source of widely visible program
development challenges, attracting and motivating the talented workforce DOD desired. However, major DOD
procurement programs are decreasing. For instance, there are currently only two major aircraft programs in devel-
opment, following a steep decline in numbers of new starts since the Second World War (Figure 45). There are,
however, exciting smaller-scale programs in DOD in a number of areas that may be less visible to the general
public. For instance, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) continues to support advanced
concept technology demonstrations across a spectrum of disciplines. 29 The Special Operations Command sponsors
cutting-edge field experimentation in the academic environment of the Naval Postgraduate School. These types
of programs tend to precede the competitive phase of the acquisition process, which leaves them relatively free of
28 Pasquale "Pat" Tamburrino, deputy assistant secretary for civilian personnel policy, personal communication.
29Note, however, that some have argued that DARPA has become too risk averse. See, for example, Ignatius (2007).
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LIMITATIONS TO MEETING THE WORKFORCE NEEDS OF DOD AND THE INDUSTRIAL BASE 93
50
45
40
Number of New Starts
35
30
25
Continued
20
Canceled
15
10
5
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Decades
FIGURE 45 Number of new fighter and bomber starts per decade. SOURCE: Carlson and Chambal (2008).
bureaucracy. Innovation and creativity are encouraged. High-risk projects are allowed to "fail," and researchers,
practitioners, and students are encouraged to push the envelope.
Another such example is the Rapid Reaction Technology Office (RRTO), later folded into the Rapid Field-
ing Office within ASD(R&E), which was charged with developing counterterrorism technologies and employed
rapid prototyping. DOD established the RRTO in 2006 in response to the constantly evolving threat of asymmet-
ric warfare, including, for example, the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in the Iraq and Afghanistan
theaters of operation. Established under the director, defense research and engineering, it focused on developing
technologies that can mature in 6 to 18 months for the purpose of countering insurgency and irregular warfare.
The RRTO provides a diverse set of quick-response capabilities for counter-terrorism while attempting to stimulate
interagency coordination and cooperation. The office operates without a formal charter or governing document,
and the director has much flexibility for carrying out the mission. Approximately 50 percent of the office's proj-
ects have resulted in fielded technologies, altered concepts of operation (CONOPS), or other concrete changes in
larger systems. Such projects included the Persistent Threat Detection System for persistent ground surveillance
through a tethered aerostat with an embedded camera; a Biometric Automated Toolset for screening personnel
in mobile applications; and the SKOPE intelligence cell, a joint analytic cell with the National Geospatial Intel-
ligence Agency, U.S. Special Operations Command, and U.S. Strategic Command. Strategic investment by DOD
in programs of this nature appears to be an important cornerstone of creating an increasingly attractive workforce
environment (National Research Council, 2009b).
In a similar vein, the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works® has, over its nearly 70-year history, created breakthrough
technologies and landmark aircraft that continually redefine flight. Guided by the mantra "quick, quiet, and quality,"
the Skunk Works® requires a flexible workforce capable of quickly forming and disbanding interdisciplinary project
teams. To meet this need, the Skunk Works® uses a matrix organization that minimizes paperwork and delays in
moving people between teams. Core engineering groups maintain skill sets and tools to support their disciplines.
Program managers draw their teams from these talent pools. Likewise, NASA developed its Engineering and Safety
Center (NESC) in 2003 to provide an independent test, analysis, and assessment capability to NASA programs and
projects. The NESC operates independently of mission directorates and reports to the Office of the Chief Engineer.
The NESC operates through technical discipline teams (TDTs), each led by an agency-recognized NASA Tech
Fellow, who is an outstanding senior-level engineer or scientist with distinguished and sustained records of technical
achievement. The fellows provide leadership and act as role models for NASA discipline engineering communi-
ties beyond the TDTs which are drawn not only from NASA but also from other federal agencies, industry, and
universities, making them diverse teams that can provide robust, creative solutions to complex problems. Another
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94 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
government agency supporting high-risk ventures is the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E),
which funds specific high-risk, potentially high-payoff, energy research and development projects. ARPA-E has
been set up to be a lean and agile organization with special hiring authority to bring on program directors and other
program leadership with the ability to offer limited-term rotational assignments. Thus, individuals from all sectors
are able to assume temporary positions lasting roughly 3 years. The agency empowers them to make technical and
programmatic decisions for the projects they oversee (PCAST, 2010; Yehle, 2011).
Until 1998, the DOD budget included a category "6.3B" for systems advanced development that supported
rapid prototyping programs (National Research Council, 2001).
Quality of Workplace
For any organization seeking to maximize the productivity of its professionals in science and engineering,
high-quality, up-to-date facilities and equipment are essential. In addition, the availability of such facilities and
equipment enhances the recruitment of talented scientists and engineers.
The committee is aware of a series of reports that describe limitations experienced by DOD research labs in
this regard.30 However, the most recent such report is already several years old, and it appears that there was little
action in response to the recommendations during subsequent periods of budgetary stringency. The committee
agrees with the perspectives expressed in these reports. For example, a recommendation from a 2001 report noted
that DOD "should continue to pursue world-class status for the Service laboratories" and emphasized that this
should be done "not only to obtain the highest-quality results from its research, but also to attract superior scientific
and engineering personnel who want to work where the best research is done" (National Research Council, 2001).
DOD's need for outstanding science and engineering in support of its increasingly technical missions does require
that serious attention be paid to ensure that facilities and equipment available to DOD scientists and engineers are
of the highest quality.
Work Environment
In order to attract the highest-quality workers, the DOD should consider personnel policies as they relate to the
ability of DOD to attract, retain, and develop the STEM workforce it needs. In a July 2010 study entitled Defense
Acquisition Workforce Modernization from the Center for Public Policy and Private Enterprise at the University
of Maryland, the authors posit that "to effectively develop the required human capital for the modern acquisition
environment, we believe that DOD should enhance its recruitment processes; improve the hiring process; strive for
quality not quantity; provide compelling wages; incentivize employees for improved performance; and, incentivize
employees for additional training and education" (Gansler et al., 2010). These imperatives can be generalized to
the STEM workforce as a whole. For example, sabbatical and expanded internship programs, as well as online
and anytime/anyplace programs, address not only recruiting and retention issues but also the increasingly inter-
disciplinary competencies required by the workforce.
Global Competition
DOD will be have to compete for scientific talent in the changing environment of globalization. Witness the
growth in higher education and the development of technological infrastructures in S&E in China and India, two
large suppliers of U.S. STEM graduates. In these countries, there is going to be a demand for these graduates that
did not exist previously. Even Russia, whose scientific enterprise has suffered from the migration of scientific talent
since the breakup of the Soviet Union, has witnessed the appointment of a U.S. engineer as president of the new
graduate research university--the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology--a collaborative effort with MIT.31
30For more information see, National Research Council (1990, 2001, 2005). See also JASON (2009), p. 26.
31According to press releases from MIT, "This institution aims to break new ground in bringing together Russian, US and global research
and technology--and in integrating teaching, research, innovation and entrepreneurship" (MIT News, 2011).
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LIMITATIONS TO MEETING THE WORKFORCE NEEDS OF DOD AND THE INDUSTRIAL BASE 95
Furthermore, some countries are trying to attract back home that segment of their native-born scientific talent
that has been educated in the United States.32 Small countries such as Singapore are luring scientific talent from
the best universities and labs in the world in order to build a cutting-edge science enterprise that is intended to
transform Singapore "into a knowledge-based, innovation-driven economy." 33 China and Taiwan, among others,
are also actively seeking foreign talent and are now rapidly developing their own technological infrastructures,
making STEM careers in such graduates' home countries increasingly attractive (Wadhwa et al., 2009). In this
more competitive environment, one would expect that the quality of the research environment as well as the remu-
neration paid to scientists and engineers will become increasingly important, particularly for foreign students who
have come to the United States seeking economic success.
Recruiting--Increasing Public Awareness
To counter these competitive pressures, DOD should offer highly competitive career opportunities for outstand-
ing scientists and engineers. DOD advertisements for STEM applicants may be neither visible enough nor attractive
enough in conveying the exciting research underway under DOD auspices. Because these jobs are about national
security, they should be seen and advertised as critical to the defense of the nation, thus appealing to patriotic
instincts. Awareness efforts could be informed by advertising campaigns such as those that have been developed
by the Marines. These campaigns appear to be effective in creating a sense of purpose (the defense of the nation,
referencing "the Marines"), exclusivity (referencing "the Few"), and a profound sense of superiority (referencing
"the Proud"). DOD scientists and engineers are not uniformed combatants, but their work is an essential part of
our national security mission and the U.S. role in promoting global peace. A concerted effort on the part of DOD
to bring awareness to the vast contributions of its highly diversified STEM workforce could go a long way toward
moving DOD into the vanguard of crafting a "heroic" image for the agency scientists and engineers whose work
is vital to U.S. national security. This was in fact a major factor in attracting talent during the Cold War era.
The committee knows of no DOD recruiting effort for civilian scientists and engineers that is comparable to
those for the uniformed services, and yet there could be substantial commonalities with the military system. DOD
scientists and engineers play central roles in creating the tools with which the military service members operate
on a daily basis. The development of a sophisticated civilian recruiting effort that identifies DOD scientists and
engineers as working closely with military personnel in ways that are critical to national security could be highly
effective. Moreover, many technically oriented students are attracted to intriguing and unique applications of sci-
ence and technology, some of which are being led by DOD. These include globally controlled, unmanned aerial
systems (UASs); "smart" weapons; sophisticated night vision; and the integration of complex communication and
data that can be deployed in real time in battlefield conditions. Outreach and recruiting efforts could be amplified
by offering highly qualified young science and engineering students internship opportunities in R&D in appropriate
DOD labs, thereby exposing them to the exciting science and engineering challenges faced by the DOD.
There is no question that STEM disciplines will continue to grow in importance as defense capability becomes
more technology-driven.To respond to this, one possibility would be to create a specialized recruiting function
within the DOD that would be responsible for STEM recruitment and hiring. A second task of this office would
be the identification of a list of higher education institutions that produce the students who best fit the demands
of the workforce in the disciplines of the greatest interest to DOD (e.g., civil engineering, electrical engineering,
petroleum engineering, etc.). A place to start would be with institutions that currently offer courses at DOD facili-
ties and others with which cooperative structures exist, for instance, the Community College of the Air Force,
eArmyU, and others.
32See for example, Lim (2011); Sharma (2011).
33The Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) is the lead agency for fostering world-class scientific research and talent
for Singapore. A*STAR oversees 14 biomedical sciences and physical sciences and engineering research institutes, and six consortia and
centers, located in Biopolis and Fusionopolis as well as their immediate vicinity. It also supports educational programs in S&E at all levels of
instruction. For more information, see http://www.a-star.edu.sg/.
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96 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
BROADER ISSUES THAT MAY IMPACT DOD'S STEM WORKFORCE
In addition to the issues noted above, there are several exogenous factors that may have an impact on DOD's
ability to hire and manage an effective STEM workforce, including the following:
· The failure of the congressional "Super Committee" to reach agreement on budget cuts, which will likely
result in another massive reduction in the DOD budget in the coming years. While the White House and Con-
gress agreed last summer on $487 billion in cuts to defense spending over the next 10 years, even deeper cuts are
threatened if Congress fails to pass a new plan for deficit reduction. In that case, the Pentagon budget will be cut
by a total of roughly $1 trillion over a decade, beginning in January 2013. 34
· The history of large swings in DOD funding.35 Defense spending increased sharply to over 9 percent of
GDP in the mid-1960s as U.S. involvement in Vietnam expanded. After large-scale withdrawal from Vietnam began
in1969, defense spending as a share of GDP fell to less than 5 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade.
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan prompted an increase in defense spending to about 6 percent of GDP during
the early 1980s. After the Berlin Wall was opened in November 1989 and communist governments in central and
Eastern Europe collapsed, defense spending as a share of GDP dropped to the historically low level of about 3
percent. Defense spending increased again to nearly 5 percent of GDP after the attacks on September 11, 2001,
and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq began. In the committee's experience, DOD has dealt with tightened budgets
by reducing, often disproportionately, funding for workforce training and development. In addition, reductions in
the STEM workforce seem to have been carried out in a manner having more to do with numbers and less with
justification premised on impact to military capabilities or quality of the workforce.
· The need for DOD to manage a potentially large increase in retirements when the recession ends and
housing and securities markets rebound. As reported in Chapter 3, about one-third of the DOD civilian STEM
workforce is eligible to retire (see Figures 3-19 and 3-20). Moreover, this eligibility rate is more than double the
estimated retirement eligibility rate of the defense industrial base workforce. While the actual rate of retirement
is low for both workforces, DOD is likely at greater risk from future retirements. The need to recruit, develop,
and retain highly skilled employees across both traditional and emerging STEM disciplines such as translational
computing, autonomous systems, systems biology, innovative materials, and efficient manufacturing should be a
DOD priority.
FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Finding 4.1. Stable funding for the recruitment and development of STEM human resources is essential to their
effective management.
Recommendation 4.1. The DOD should fund STEM recruitment and development in a manner that facilitates
stability, such as multi-year programming, "one color" of money for STEM related costs, 36 or funding based on a
percent of total obligational authority. This would facilitate stability for long-term STEM investments and greater
consistency across and within the services. In addition, DOD should require all services to justify, as part of the
approval process, STEM-related manpower reductions in terms of impact on technology-based capabilities and,
where appropriate, whether there has been sufficient return on investment from those who have recently completed
postsecondary education paid for by the government.
34See for example, Barnes and Entous (2012).
35See for example, Austin and Levit (2010).
36 Congress provides funds to the DOD in different appropriation accounts ("colors of money," a term of art used in day-to-day discussions
within the DOD). DOD military personnel are paid from one account--the "MILPERS" account. DOD civilians, especially STEM-related
civilians, can be paid from more than one account, such as the Operation & Maintenance (O&M) account or the Research, Development,
Test, & Evaluation (RDT&E) account. These accounts are managed with different sets of rules including programming procedures, approval
levels of reprogramming, and duration of funds. Therefore, civilians paid with different "colors of money" are funded differently in terms of
both procedures and funding levels. This can cause significant disruptions and disparities across the services when it comes to employment
programming, hiring, training, RIFs, awards, and so on.
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LIMITATIONS TO MEETING THE WORKFORCE NEEDS OF DOD AND THE INDUSTRIAL BASE 97
Finding 4.2. The U.S. STEM workforce is heavily dependent on non-citizens. DOD will need to reassess its
requirement for security clearances for many STEM positions along with the processes by which many of its
systems are developed and procured.
Recommendation 4.2. The DOD should find creative ways to hire STEM-qualified non-U.S. citizen personnel to
support and advance designated S&T activities. Consideration should be given to those aspects of programs that
are not classified and those that could accommodate lower-level clearances. The process should be codified and
repeatable to ensure a sufficient number of candidates under appropriate circumstances. It is understood that this
could require both policy and legislative changes, including but not limited to adapting the H1-B program, and
the issuance of exemptions under ITAR and other applicable laws and regulations.
Finding 4.3. The United States, including DOD and its industrial contractors, is competing in an ever-growing
world market for top scientific and engineering talent. For the DOD to recruit top STEM talent in competition with
commercial firms, universities, and others, it must commit to improving the STEM workforce environment. The
DOD must become, and be perceived as, an attractive career destination for the most capable scientists, engineers,
and technicians, who are in great demand in the global talent marketplace.
Recommendation 4.3. The DOD should strengthen its ability to recruit, educate, and retain top STEM talent by
offering competitive salaries and a constructive work environment, providing challenging and interesting problems
in the workplace, enabling existing talent to keep up with the newly emerging scientific trends, and providing
opportunities for the retraining of its STEM workforce to meet changing scientific and technological needs.
Finding 4.4. Because of the increasing acquisition costs of major systems and continuing pressures on DOD bud-
gets, the number and variety of major weapons being developed and fielded have shrunk significantly in recent
decades. This dynamic has a dampening effect on recruiting for the DOD STEM workforce.
Recommendation 4.4. The DOD should support, wherever possible, experimental and rapid-prototyping programs
that push the cutting edge of science and engineering, in order to both maximize new technology applications and
to attract the best and brightest STEM workers.
Finding 4.5. The DOD has centers of excellence across its own institutions, but the quality and the modernity of
both facilities and equipment vary widely, marginalizing DOD's ability to compete broadly for top STEM talent.
Recommendations 4.5. The DOD should establish high standards of quality for both facilities and equipment
and fund them appropriately.
Finding 4.6. DOD's personnel policies with regard to recruiting, hiring, paying, retaining, and incentivizing addi-
tional training and education are not currently optimized for maintaining the best STEM workforce.
Recommendation 4.6. The DOD should consider changes in personnel policy that would enable it to move more
nimbly to make competitive hiring offers in DOD-critical scientific and engineering fields. Some of these changes
can be made internally within DOD. Where this is not currently possible, DOD should seek legislative and/or
regulatory relief. The following changes warrant consideration by DOD:
· More active outreach and recruitment efforts, aimed at civilian hires, of needed scientists and engineers
that emphasize the many exciting technologies that are being developed by DOD and their potential contribution
to the nation;
· New measures to expedite recruitment offers for occupations in which DOD determines that it must compete
with more nimble corporate recruiters;
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98 ASSURING DOD A STRONG STEM WORKFORCE
· Additional authority to expedite security clearances needed for such positions, including permission for
temporary hiring into non-sensitive roles pending confirmation of security clearance;
· Actions to protect or "ring-fence" science and engineering positions determined by DOD to be critical
capabilities, thereby protecting the loss of such capabilities due to future RIFs and hiring freezes; and
· Further provisions to incentivize DOD scientists and engineers to seek additional continuing education and
training in rapidly developing areas of science and technology.
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