ASSURING THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE A STRONG
Science, Technology, Engineering, and
Mathematics [STEM] Workforce

Committee on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Workforce
Needs for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
with
Board on Higher Education and Workforce
Division on Policy and Global Affairs

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING AND
                      NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                                                             OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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Committee on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Workforce Needs for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences with Board on Higher Education and Workforce Division on Policy and Global Affairs

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by contract number HQ0034-10-D-0003, delivery order 0003, between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26213-2 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26213-5 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS WORKFORCE NEEDS FOR THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE NORMAN R. AUGUSTINE (NAS1/NAE2), Co-chair, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired) C.D. (DAN) MOTE, JR. (NAE), Co-chair, University of Maryland, College Park BURT S. BARNOW, George Washington University JAMES S.B. CHEW, L-3 Communications LAWRENCE J. DELANEY, Titan Corporation (retired) MARY L. GOOD (NAE), University of Arkansas at Little Rock DANIEL E. HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROBERT J. HERMANN (NAE), Private Consultant, Bloomfield, Connecticut J.C. HERZ, Batchtags, LLC RAY O. JOHNSON, Lockheed Martin Corporation ANITA K. JONES (NAE), University of Virginia SHARON LEVIN, University of Missouri-St. Louis FRANCES S. LIGLER (NAE), Naval Research Laboratory AARON LINDENBERG, Stanford University PAUL D. NIELSEN (NAE), Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University DANIEL T. OLIVER, Naval Postgraduate School C. KUMAR N. PATEL (NAS/NAE), Pranalytica, Inc. LEIF E. PETERSON, Advanced HR Concepts and Solutions, LLC STEPHEN M. ROBINSON (NAE), University of Wisconsin-Madison MICHAEL S. TEITELBAUM, Harvard Law School RONALD WILLIAMS, The College Board Staff TERRY JAGGERS, Lead Board Director MARTIN OFFUTT, Study Director CATHERINE DIDION, Senior Program Officer GAIL GREENFIELD, Senior Program Officer DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer KAMARA BROWN, Research Associate (through January 2012) SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator DIONNA ALI, Senior Program Assistant 1 NAS = member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering. iv

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Preface This report on the science, technology, mathematics, and engineering (STEM) work- force of the Department of Defense (DOD) and the U.S. defense industrial base marks the conclusion of an 18-month study to assess the STEM capabilities that the DOD will need in order to meet its responsibilities and priorities; to assess whether the current DOD work- force and personnel strategies will meet those needs; and to identify and evaluate options and recommend strategies that the department could use to enhance its effectiveness in meeting its future STEM needs. The study was undertaken jointly by the National Academy of Engineering and the National Research Council at the request of the Honorable Zachary J. Lemnios, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD[R&E]). The committee preparing this report, the Committee on Science, Technology, Engi- neering, and Mathematics Workforce Needs for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base, initially convened a workshop on August 1 and 2, 2011, in Rosslyn, Virginia, for the purpose of gathering a broad range of views from the public sector and the private sector, including major defense contractors, and from nongovern- mental organizations (NGOs), all of which are stakeholders in the future STEM workforce. A report issued in early 2012 summarized the views expressed by individual workshop participants.1 An interim report was issued in June 2012 for the purpose of assisting ASD(R&E) with its fiscal year (FY) 2014 planning process and with laying the ground- work for future years.2 The present report highlights and addresses the critical need for scientists and engi- neers within DOD and its contractors, the latter to the extent they are engaged in defense- related activities. 1National Research Council. 2012. Report of a Workshop on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math- ematics (STEM) Workforce Needs for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2National Research Council. 2012. An Interim Report on Assuring DOD a Strong Science, Technology, Engi- neering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. v

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vi PREFACE CAVEAT It is emphasized that this report does not examine fulfilling the nation's overall demand for science and engineering talent. Indeed, important differences exist between defense and commercial needs in these fields, not the least of which is the result of the steep decline projected for defense spending, which portends a reduction in opportunities for most, but not all, categories of engineering and scientific talent within the defense sector. The foreseeable consequence for defense is primarily the need to assure the high quality of the workforce as opposed to its quantity. Most commercial activities have become sufficiently internationalized and globalized that the STEM talent base is itself a global pool. Under these circumstances, the demand for scientists and engineers physically based in the United States often does not, per se, drive personnel decision making. Rather, in this instance, the issue becomes a national one of whether the jobs created through the efforts of scientists and engineers are located in the United States or elsewhere. The latter question, although critically important to the nation as a whole, was not a subject of this report. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We wish to express our appreciation to the members of the committee for their diligent and dedicated contributions to the study and to the preparation of this report. The commit- tee's diverse experiences contributed greatly to the broad perspective on STEM workforce evident in this report. We also wish to thank Stephanie Brown of the Naval Postgraduate School for her dedicated attention to the committee's discussions and its preparation of Chapter 5. The committee cannot thank the NRC staff members, Terry Jaggers, Martin Offutt, Gail Greenfield, Daniel E.J. Talmage, Jr., Kamara Brown, Sarah Capote, Marguerite Schneider, and Dionna Ali, and NAE staff member Catherine Didion, too effusively for their dedication to the study and to the preparation of this report. Norman R. Augustine, Co-chair C.D. (Dan) Mote, Jr., Co-chair Committee on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Workforce Needs for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse per- spectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the delibera- tive process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Wanda Austin, NAE, The Aerospace Corporation Lynda Carlson, National Science Foundation (retired) VADM (ret.) Paul Gaffney, NAE, Monmouth University Maj. Gen. (ret.) Robert Latiff, Independent Consultant Kaushik Rajashekara, NAE, University of Texas at Dallas Steven Ramberg, National Defense University Harold Salzman, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey John Sommerer, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Paula Stephan, Georgia State University David Whelan, NAE, The Boeing Company Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence D. Brown, NAS, University of Pennsylvania, and Martha A. Krebs, University of California, Davis. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Respon- sibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii

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Contents SUMMARY1 1INTRODUCTION 15 Overview, 15 Twenty-first Century DOD STEM Workforce Environment, 17 The Current Study, 20 References, 21 2 EMERGING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FIELDS 23 Introduction, 23 Information Technology, 23 Data Mining, 24 Cybersecurity 24 Cloud Computing, 24 Communications Technology, 25 Application to Training, 25 Autonomous Systems, 25 Modeling and Simulation, 26 Operational Applications, 26 Sensor Integration, 26 Energy and Power, 27 Systems Biology, 28 Understanding Natural Systems, 28 Modification of Natural Systems to Impart Particular Capabilities, 29 Utilization of Modified Natural Systems as Production or Processing Facilities, 30 Innovative Materials, 30 Efficient Manufacturing, 31 Direct Manufacturing, 32 Micromanufacturing, 32 Flexible Robotics, 32 ix

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x CONTENTS STEM Skills Relevant to the Five Areas, 33 Findings and Recommendations, 34 References, 36 3THE STEM WORKFORCE IN THE DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE, 37 WITHIN DOD, AND OVERALL Introduction, 37 Historical Trends in the Overall STEM Workforce, 38 Current and Anticipated STEM Labor Market, 39 STEM Workforce in the Defense Industrial Base, 42 STEM Workforce in DOD, 48 DOD Civilian STEM Workforce, 49 DOD Military STEM Workforce, 58 Findings and Recommendations, 58 References, 59 Annex--Chapter 3 Tables, 61 4LIMITATIONS TO MEETING WORKFORCE NEEDS OF DOD 83 AND THE INDUSTRIAL BASE Supply-Side Issues, 83 The Role of Temporary Residents in Meeting STEM Needs, 86 Demand-Side Issues, 91 Pay, 91 Quality of Work, 92 Quality of Workplace, 94 Work Environment, 94 Global Competition, 94 Recruiting--Increasing Public Awareness, 95 Broader Issues That May Impact DOD's STEM Workforce, 96 Findings and Recommendations, 96 References, 98 5INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY IN EDUCATION AND THE DOD 101 INVESTMENTS NEEDED TO ENSURE AN ADEQUATE STEM WORKFORCE Introduction, 101 Challenges to Meeting Educational Needs of the STEM Workforce, 101 Attrition and Time to Degree Completion, 101 Visa Issues, 102 Education Costs, 105 Where and How Should DOD Invest in Educational Capacity?, 105 DOD's Investments in STEM Development, 105 Investing Across the Education Continuum, 107 Findings and Recommendations, 111 References, 112

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CONTENTS xi 6 A CLOSING PERSPECTIVE ON THE DOD WORKFORCE 115 Barriers to Attracting and Retaining the Best and the Brightest, 116 A Perspective on the Industrial Base, 117 On the Uncertain Future, 117 What to Do?, 117 Dealing with Uncertainty, 117 Improving the Quality of DOD Assignments, 118 Improving the Processes for Recruitment and Retention, 119 References, 119 APPENDIXES A Committee Biographies 123 B Meetings and Speakers 133

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Figures, Tables, and Boxes FIGURES S-1 Number of master's degrees awarded in the United States, by visa status, 3 S-2 Age distribution of Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce, selected years: 2001, 2006, and 2011, 4 S-3 Retirement eligibility of selected occupational groups in the DOD civilian STEM workforce, 4 S-4 Computer science bachelor's degree awards and computer programmer real mean salaries, 1992-2008, 7 S-5 Number of new fighter and bomber starts per decade, 10 1-1 Global research publication impact, 16 1-2 Baccalaureate origins of PhDs from the largest feeder schools, 2001-2010, 18 1-3 Foreign graduate students enrolled in S&E fields, 2009, 18 1-4 Total budget authority of DOD military programs, 1985-2009, 19 2-1 DARPA ISIS blimp, 28 2-2 R&D performed in the United States by U.S. affiliates of foreign companies, by investing region, and R&D performed abroad by foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational corporations, by host region, 1998 and 2008, 31 3-1 STEM workforce by occupational group, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, 39 3-2 Distribution of STEM workforce by occupational group, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, 39 3-3 Employment by STEM occupational group, 2010 and 2020 (projected), 41 3-4 Distribution of STEM workforce by occupational group, 2010 and 2020 (projected), 42 3-5 Aerospace and defense industry employment, 2005-2010, 44 3-6 Aerospace products and parts manufacturing (NAICS 3364) STEM employment by occupational group, 2010 and 2020 (projected), 44 3-7 Age distribution of the defense industrial base STEM workforce, 46 3-8 Age distribution in the aerospace and defense industry workforce, 47 3-9 Retirements and retirement eligibility for the aerospace and defense industry workforce by job category, 2010 and 2014, 48 xiii

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xiv FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES 3-10 Department of Defense civilian STEM employment as a percent of total DOD civilian employment, 2007-2011, 50 3-11 Department of Defense civilian STEM employment as a percent of federal civilian STEM employment by major occupational group, 2007-2011, 50 3-12 Department of Defense civilian STEM employment by major occupational group, 2011, 50 3-13 Department of Defense civilian STEM employment by major occupational group, 2001-2011, 51 3-14 Department of Defense civilian STEM employment by department and major occupational group, 2011, 53 3-15 Highest degree attained for Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce, 2001-2011, 53 3-16 Highest degree attained for Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce by major occupational group, 2011, 54 3-17 Age distribution of Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce, selected years: 2001, 2006, and 2011, 55 3-18 Age distribution of Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce by major occupational group, 2011, 56 3-19 Retirement eligibility of Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce, 2001-2011, 56 3-20 Retirement eligibility of Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce by major occupational group, 2011, 57 3-21 Department of Defense civilian STEM separation rates by type and major occupational group, 2011, 57 4-1 Annual wage estimates for select occupations, May 2010, 85 4-2 STEM-educated migrants in the United States in 2003 by initial entry visa type and cohort, 87 4-3 STEM-educated migrants in the United States in 2003 by birth region (country) and cohort, 88 4-4 Computer science bachelor's degree awards and computer programmer real mean salaries, 1992-2008, 92 4-5 Number of new fighter and bomber starts per decade, 93 5-1 Persistence in science and engineering STEM fields and attainment of STEM degrees among postsec- ondary students in 4-year postsecondary institutions, 103 5-2 Persistence in science and engineering STEM fields and attainment of STEM degrees among postsec- ondary students entering 2- and 4-year postsecondary institutions, 103 5-3 Estimated percentages of all international higher education students in STEM fields in a selection of countries, by country of enrollment, 2000 and 2004, 104 5-4 First university degrees in S&E fields, 2008 or most recent year, 104 TABLES 3-1 Approaches Used to Estimate STEM Employment in Recent Reports by U.S. Government Agencies, 61 3-2 Employment by STEM Occupational Group, Selected Years: 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, 62 3-3 Employment by STEM Occupational Group, 2010 and 2020 (projected), 62 3-4 Aerospace Products and Parts Manufacturing (NAICS 3364) STEM Employment by Occupational Group, 2010 and 2020 (projected), 63 3-5 Aerospace Products and Parts Manufacturing (NAICS 3364) STEM Employment by Occupational Group and Occupation, 2010 and 2020 (projected), 64 3-6 Age Distribution of the Defense Industrial Base STEM Workforce, 65 3-7 Retirements and Retirement Eligibility for the Aerospace and Defense Industry Workforce by Job Category, 2010-2014, 65

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FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES xv 3-8 Retirements and Retirement Eligibility of the Aerospace and Defense Industry Workforce by Company Size for 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2016, 65 3-9 Crosswalk Between STEM Major and Minor Occupational Groups and OPM Occupational Series and Department of Defense Civilian STEM Employment by OPM Occupational Series, 2011, 66 3-10 Department of Defense Civilian STEM Employment by Major Occupational Group, 2001-2011, 69 3-11 Department of Defense 20 Largest Civilian STEM Occupations, 2011, 70 3-12 Department of Defense 20 Fastest-Growing Civilian STEM Occupations, 2001-2011, 70 3-13 Department of Defense Civilian STEM Employment by OPM Occupational Series, 2001-2011, 71 3-14 Department of Defense Civilian STEM Employment by Department and Major Occupational Group, 2011, 76 3-15 Crosswalk Between Highest Degree Attained and OPM's Classification of Educational Attainment, 76 3-16 Most Common Fields of Study (4-digit CIP code) for Department of Defense Civilian STEM Workforce with a Postsecondary Degree, 2011, 77 3-17 Field of Study (2-digit CIP code) for Department of Defense Civilian STEM Workforce with a Postsecondary Degree, 2011, 78 3-18 Field of Study (2-digit CIP code) by Major Occupational Group for Department of Defense Civilian STEM Workforce with a Postsecondary Degree, 2011, 79 3-19 Age Distribution of Department of Defense Civilian STEM Workforce, 2001-2011, 80 3-20 Age Distribution of Department of Defense Civilian STEM Workforce by Major Occupational Group, 2011, 80 3-21 Department of Defense Occupation Codes Identified as STEM by DMDC, 81 4-1 STEM-Educated Migrants in the United States in 2003 by Birth Region (Country), Initial Entry Visa Type, and Cohort, 87 5-1 ASD(R&E) Investments in STEM, 106 BOXES S-1 Innovative Recruitment Policies and Practices at the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) and at the Naval Research Laboratory, 9 S-2 Recruitment of Non-U.S. Citizens at the National Laboratories, 10 S-3 Rapid Prototyping in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, 11 S-4 Agile and Adaptable Workforce Practices at NASA and at Lockheed Martin, 12 S-5 Rapid Retraining into Technical Fields at the Naval Postgraduate School, 12 S-6 Graduate Study Programs for Members of the Military, 12 1-1 Statement of Task, 20

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