Contents

SUMMARY

1   COMPUTER AND SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS

1.1   Interrelated Challenges to Continued Performance Scaling

1.2   Future Directions for Hardware and Software Innovation

1.3   The Rise of Mobile Computing, Services, and Software

1.4   Summary and Implications

2   THE GLOBAL RESEARCH LANDSCAPE

2.1   Preliminary Observations from Pilot Study of Papers at Top Technical Conferences

2.2   Increased International Collaboration

2.3   Commercialization of Technologies

2.4   Growing Complexity in IT Trade – Tracing Shifts in International Competitiveness

2.5   China’s Position in the Global Semiconductor Value Chain

2.6   Concluding Remarks

3   INNOVATION POLICY LANDSCAPE – COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

3.1   Development of the U.S. Computer and Semiconductor Industry

3.2   China – Strengthening Indigenous Innovation

3.3   Taiwan – Low-cost and Fast Innovation

3.4   Korea – Coevolution of International and Domestic Knowledge Linkages

3.5   Europe – Integrated EU-wide Innovation Policy Coordination

3.6   Conclusions and Policy Implications

4   IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL ADVANCED COMPUTING LANDSCAPE FOR U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

4.1   Parallelism in Hardware and Software

4.2   Integrity and Reliability of the Global Supply Chain

4.3   Decline of Custom Production

4.4   Convergence of Civilian and Defense Technological Capabilities

4.5   Rise of a New Post-PC Paradigm Driven by Mass ICT Consumerization

4.6   New Market-Driven Innovation Centers

4.7   The Future Educational and Research Landscape in Advanced Computing

4.8   Cybersecurity and Software

4.9   Possible Defense IT Outcomes



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