to various procedures to protect potentially sensitive information) publicly available to the research community.

The major conclusions and recommendations offered by the panel (and numbered according to the chapter in which they are developed) are as follows:

•   Conclusion 2.1: To understand migration flows in any one sector, it is important to view the entire border as a system; localized increases in border enforcement may simply change where migrants cross without reducing the overall flow in the long run.

•   Conclusion 2.2: The migration process is complex and dynamic. Undocumented migration is the outcome of many interrelated factors that can vary widely across people, space, and time; migrant characteristics and the geography of sending and destination areas are changing constantly. This complexity and dynamism should be incorporated into the analytical approaches and study designs used to estimate flows of unauthorized migrants.

•   Recommendation 4.1: For the purpose of estimating unauthorized migration flows across the U.S.–Mexico border on an annual or quarterly basis, DHS should not invest substantial resources in making major changes to existing surveys or in implementing a new survey.

•   Conclusion 4.1: Existing surveys are subject to a variety of limitations having to do with target populations and associated issues of sample size and survey design, the frequency with which surveys are conducted and the speed with which data are made publicly available, and the types of questions that are asked about migration. Therefore, although survey data are critical for understanding patterns and general trends in unauthorized migration, they will not be sufficient by themselves to meet the needs of DHS for estimating unauthorized migration flows across the U.S.–Mexico border.

•   Conclusion 4.2: Implementing a new household survey that meets the needs of DHS would require an investment at least comparable to that associated with the American Community Survey in the United States; any such survey would also have to fall within the purview of the Government of Mexico. A survey that uses a time-location design and focuses directly on migrant populations (e.g., EMIF-N) would be more promising, but such a non-traditional

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement