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Options for Estimating
Illegal Entries at the
U.S.–Mexico Border
Panel on Survey Options for Estimating the Flow of
Unauthorized Crossings at the U.S.–Mexican Border
Alicia Carriquiry and Malay Majmundar, Editors
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the
Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are
drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of
the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special com-
petences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided
by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National
Science Foundation (No. SES-1024012). The project that is the subject of
this report was supported by an allocation from the U.S. Department of
Homeland Security to the National Science Foundation under this grant.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this
publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26422-8
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26422-7
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies
Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-
6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2013). Options for Esti-
mating Illegal Entries at the U.S.–Mexico Border. Panel on Survey Options
for Estimating the Flow of Unauthorized Crossings at the U.S.–Mexican
Border, A. Carriquiry and M. Majmundar, Eds. Committee on National
Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Wash-
ington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society
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the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
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www.national-academies.org
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PANEL ON SURVEY OPTIONS FOR ESTIMATING THE FLOW OF
UNAUTHORIZED CROSSINGS AT THE U.S.–MEXICAN BORDER
ALICIA CARRIQUIRY (Chair), Department of Statistics, Iowa State
University
DAVID L. BANKS, Department of Statistical Sciences, Duke University
PETER BROWNELL, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA
STEPHEN E. FIENBERG, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon
University
MARK S. HANDCOCK, Department of Statistics, University of
California, Los Angeles
GORDON HANSON, Department of Economics, University of
California, San Diego
VIRGINIA LESSER, Department of Statistics, Oregon State University
PIA ORRENIUS, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
JEFFREY S. PASSEL, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC
FERNANDO RIOSMENA, Institute of Behavioral Science and
Geography Department, University of Colorado
SILVIA ELENA GIORGULI SAUCEDO, Center for Demographic, Urban,
and Environmental Studies, El Colegio de Mexico
MALAY MAJMUNDAR, Study Director
THOMAS J. PLEWES, Senior Program Officer
MICHAEL J. SIRI, Program Associate
v
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2012-2013
LAWRENCE BROWN (Chair), Department of Statistics, The Wharton
School, University of Pennsylvania
JOHN M. ABOWD, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell
University
DAVID CARD, Department of Economics, University of California,
Berkeley
ALICIA CARRIQUIRY, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Center for Statistical Sciences, Brown
University
JAMES S. HOUSE, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research,
University of Michigan
MICHAEL HOUT, Survey Research Center, University of California,
Berkeley
SALLIE KELLER, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
LISA LYNCH, Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis
University
SALLY MORTON, Graduate School of Public Health, University of
Pittsburgh
RUTH PETERSON, Criminal Justice Research Center, The Ohio State
University
EDWARD H. SHORTLIFFE, Columbia University and Arizona State
University
HAL STERN, Donald Bren School of Information and Computer
Sciences, University of California, Irvine
JOHN THOMPSON, National Opinion Research Center at the
University of Chicago
ROGER TOURANGEAU, Statistical Group, Westat, Rockville, MD
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director
vi
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Contents
Acknowledgments ix
Summary 1
1 Introduction 9
2 The Process of Unauthorized Crossing at the U.S.–Mexico Border 15
3 Migration-Relevant Surveys in the United States and Mexico:
Background 39
4 Migration-Relevant Surveys in the United States and Mexico:
Usefulness and Limitations 61
5 Administrative Data on Undocumented Migration Across U.S.
Borders 73
6 Model-Based Approaches to Estimating Migration Flows 93
References 111
Appendixes
A Survey Questions About Migration and Border Crossing 125
B Review of Capture-Recapture Ideas for Measuring the Flow of
Unauthorized Crossings at the U.S.–Mexico Border 135
C Biographical Sketches of Panel Members 139
vii
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Acknowledgments
In 2011, at the request of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
(DHS), the Committee on National Statistics at the National Research
Council (NRC) appointed the Panel on Survey Options for Estimating the
Flow of Unauthorized Crossings at the U.S.–Mexican Border to provide
guidance on the use of surveys and other methodologies to estimate the
number of unauthorized crossings at the U.S.–Mexico border. This report
represents the final product of the panel.
The panel held its first in-person meeting (in conjunction with a public
workshop) in November 2011. It held a second in-person meeting in Janu-
ary 2012. Several panel members participated in a field trip to the Tucson
and San Diego sectors of the U.S.–Mexico border prior to the January meet-
ing and had an opportunity to meet with U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) agents,
observe the processing of apprehended migrants in the Tucson sector, tour
the Nogales and the Chula Vista sections of the border fence, and see the
remote sensing facility in the San Diego sector. These panel members were
encouraged to ask questions about all aspects of border enforcement and
received valuable information from USBP agents. The panel held its final
in-person meeting in March 2012. In May 2012, several panel members
traveled to Tijuana, Mexico, where they were hosted by researchers at El
Colegio de la Frontera Norte (COLEF) and learned about data collection
for the Survey of Migration at the Northern Border (EMIF-N).
This report would not have been possible without the contributions of
many people. Special thanks go to the members of the panel, who dedicated
time, thought, and energy to the report. The panel worked very well to-
gether and, due to its professional diversity, was well-positioned to address
ix
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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
the complex problem of illegal migration at the southwestern border of the
United States. Special thanks also go to Michael Hoefer, Director of the
Office of Immigration Statistics at DHS, who played a key role in develop-
ing this study and who served as the Department’s liaison with the panel
during the course of its work.
The panel learned much from discussions on surveys and other data
initiatives at the November 2011 workshop, where presentations were
made by Mark Borkowski, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, DHS;
Alfredo Bustos, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI);
Wayne Cornelius, University of California, San Diego; Elizabeth Grieco,
U.S. Census Bureau; Douglas Massey, Princeton University; Elsa Pérez
Paredes, INEGI; Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center; Michael Rendall,
University of Maryland; Melissa Scopilliti, U.S. Census Bureau; and Duncan
Thomas, Duke University. The work of the panel was also informed by
the trips made by several members to the southwest U.S. border and to
Tijuana, Mexico—arranged, respectively, by Luke Lopez of U.S. Customs
and Border Protection and by Marie-Laure Coubes and Rene Zenteno from
COLEF. Finally, the panel is grateful to Michael Hoefer for providing useful
information about the general structure and content of DHS administrative
data1 and for his assistance in advancing the panel’s data request within
DHS.
Several members of the staff of the NRC made significant contributions
to the report. Malay Majmundar served as study director for the panel and
was instrumental to the success of the panel’s work. He made sure that
all the i’s were dotted and t’s were crossed in the report’s substantive and
technical discussions, kept the panel engaged in the project and abreast of
developments, and wrote significant portions of initial drafts of the report.
Michael Siri provided key administrative support to the panel and effi-
ciently organized meetings and field trips. Thanks are also due to Kirsten
Sampson Snyder for helping guide the report through review, Robert Katt
for skillful editing, and Yvonne Wise for managing the production process.
Tom Plewes provided valuable guidance and oversight during the course
of the study, and his many years of experience and knowledge of the NRC
study process are gratefully acknowledged. Connie Citro was helpful as
usual and provided many valuable comments and suggestions.
This final report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen
1
During a briefing with DHS immediately prior to the public release of this report, the
panel received additional clarifying information regarding the structure and content of DHS
administrative data. Specifically, it learned that although the data are not integrated across
the constituent agencies of DHS for “analytical purposes,” they are so for “enforcement”
purposes. Although this did not change the panel’s conclusions or the thrust of its recom-
mendations, text was added to the report in the Summary, Chapter 5, and Recommendation
5.1 to reflect this distinction.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi
for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with
procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The
purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical com-
ments that assist the institution in making its reports as sound as possible
and to ensure that the reports meet institutional standards for objectivity,
evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments
and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the
deliberative process.
The panel thanks the following individuals for their review of the re-
port: Frank D. Bean, Center for Research on Immigration, Population and
Public Policy, University of California, Irvine; Víctor Alfredo Bustos y de la
Tijera, Office of the Deputy Director General, National Institute of Statis-
tics and Geography, Aguascalientes City, Mexico; Rebecca L. Clark, Demo-
graphic and Behavioral Sciences Branch, National Institute of Child Health
and Human Development; Krista J. Gile, Department of Mathematics and
Statistics, University of Massachusetts; Joel L. Horowitz, Department of
Economics, Northwestern University; Roderick J. Little, Department of
Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan; Douglas
S. Massey, Department of Sociology, Princeton University; Hal S. Stern,
Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Sciences, University of
California, Irvine; and Victoria Velkoff, Assistant Division Chief, Popula-
tion Estimates and Projections, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions
or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before
its release. The review of the report was overseen by John Rolph, Univer-
sity of Southern California, and Charles Manski, Northwestern University.
Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that the
independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with
institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully con-
sidered. Responsibility for the final content of the report rests entirely with
the authoring committee and the National Research Council.
Alicia Carriquiry, Chair
Panel on Survey Options for Estimating the Flow of
Unauthorized Crossings at the U.S.–Mexican Border
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