Kriesel and Gilbreath (1994) applied those estimates to a software model for input-output analysis that contained county-level economic data. With the model, they were able to forecast the economic consequences of the deployment within the seven-county study area. The model showed that 240 economic sectors were affected by troop deployments from Fort Stewart; however, only 101 of the sectors were present in the seven-county study region, meaning that many of the economic effects associated with deployments from Fort Stewart were felt outside the immediate region. The results of the model are summarized in Table 7.1.
“Direct impact” as shown in Table 7.1 includes, for example, decreased sales at restaurants as a result of fewer patrons. “Indirect impact” includes the decreased purchases that restaurants in turn would make from wholesalers, as well as the ensuing chain of decreased economic activity (for example, wholesalers purchasing less produce from farmers, who in response might decrease their production the following year). “Induced impact” considers the broader economic fallout from the deployments—for example, reduced overall consumer spending caused by lower wages as a consequence of less revenue at local businesses. “Direct impact plus indirect impact plus induced impact” equals the total economic impact in the region for each of the categories in Table 7.1.
The column labeled “Total Gross Output” in Table 7.1 quantifies the impact that deploying 1,000 troops for 1 year has on the output of goods and services in the region. In 1991 dollars, such a deployment from Fort Stewart would reduce the total gross output in the seven counties by $13.87 million. Wages and salaries paid to employees of local vendors would be reduced by $4.15 million over the year, and total income (wages plus interest, profits, rental income) would be reduced by $7.05 million. Value added (employee compensation plus indirect business taxes and property income) would be reduced by $7.77 million, and a total of 266 jobs would be lost.
Although this type of analysis is geographically specific, it does shed light on how a deployment might affect local economies with heavy reliance on military installations. The Kriesel and Gilbreath study suggests that there are significant economic losses to communities that deploy a relatively high concentration of service members.
TABLE 7.1 Local Economic Impacts from Deploying 1,000 Troops for 1 Year, Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield (in 1991 USD)
|Total Gross Output ($ in millions)||Wages and Salaries ($ in millions)||Total Income ($ in millions)||Value Added ($ in millions)||Jobs|
|Indirect + Induced Impact||‒13.8669||‒4.1519||‒7.0548||‒7.7697||‒266|
SOURCE: Kriesel and Gilbreath, 1994 (with permission).