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A
Summary of Recent and Evolving Arctic Sea Ice
Predictability Efforts
(Provided to workshop participants as background information)
Forecasts of the sea ice minimum in The increased user-demand for sea ice
summer have been collected and synthesized predictions coupled with the current lack of
in the Study for Environmental Arctic operational sea ice forecasting capability
Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook have also sparked two National Oceanic and
(ARCUS, 2010) since 2008, with several Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
research groups in the United States, workshops in 2010 and 2011 (NOAA, 2011),
Canada, and Europe participating. The which were tasked with identifying actions
methods used by these groups vary, with NOAA could take over the next few years
some groups using models, some statistical (2012-2014) to improve its sea ice
methods, and others deterministic methods. forecasting capability. The report
Overall the goal of the SEARCH Sea Ice recommended that the Sea Ice Outlook
Outlook is not to issue sea ice predictions should not only continue, but should also be
themselves, but to summarize and synthesize converted to a formal program, potentially
available information from the scientific adding fall freeze-up dates and more
community on the expected September detailed regional forecasts to the current
Arctic sea ice minimum. predictions of the Arctic-wide sea ice
A related activity is the Arctic Observing minimum. Further improvements of sea ice
Coordination Workshop, which was held in models and coupled simulations are also
March 2012. The workshop was organized needed to investigate the predictability of sea
around the SEARCH 5-Year Science Goals ice on decadal timescales.
and Objectives focusing on sea ice, The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment
permafrost, land-ice, and society/policy. The Program (AMAP) also recommended
workshop participants concluded that the several actions related to Arctic sea ice in its
use of ocean observations to improve sea ice "SWIPA 2011 Executive Summary" (AMAP,
forecasting on various timescales (daily, 2011) including: maintaining and
seasonal, interannual, and decadal) would supporting development of remote sensing
lead to safe marine operations, methods for observing the cryosphere;
infrastructure/community planning, and expanding research into processes that are
ecosystem stewardship in the Arctic. important for modeling the cryosphere; and
61
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62 Appendix A
making accurate forecasts for ice, weather, Change Task Force" (ARCUS, 2010)
and sea conditions accessible to all Arctic concluded that there must be a clear
residents and organizations. understanding in the scientific community
Several organizations have focused their of what planners and decision makers
efforts on marine operations in the Arctic. require for predictions to be useful, and the
An Arctic Roadmap report (US Navy, 2009) scientific community must communicate the
from the US Navy Task Force Climate current predictive capabilities in clear and
Change outlined a 5-year plan for Navy useful ways to stakeholders, while also
operations and research in the Arctic. The quantifying and explaining uncertainties
report recommended the identification of a related to them.
high-confidence timeline for increased Many of the recommendations from a
access to the Arctic. It also recommended 2010 report from the US Arctic Research
that the potential for developing high- Commission (USARC, 2010) focused on
resolution coupled, air-ocean-ice, prediction stakeholder needs for sea ice forecasts. The
capability for the Arctic region be evaluated. report notes that there is a need for
The Arctic Council's Arctic Marine communication between scientists,
Shipping Assessment 2009 Report (Arctic operational forecasting centers, and
Council, 2009) focused on current and stakeholders. The decision-making
future marine activity in the Arctic Ocean. community needs to clearly articulate the
The report called for research to improve space and time domains over which it needs
regional models for increased understanding actionable scientific information and the
and enhanced forecasting of regional Arctic science community needs to assess its
sea ice variability. Also noted is the need for readiness to provide this knowledge. These
comprehensive analyses of current and various communities should also hold
future global climate model simulations of forums on the issue of uncertainty and how
Arctic sea ice extent to quantitatively assess to interpret and use these estimates in a
the range of plausibility of ice-free and proactive and positive manner.
partially ice-covered conditions. The report Some efforts at increasing
also noted the importance of continued communication between different scientific
research on Arctic sea ice thickness communities have already been made.
atmosphere ocean ice forecasting. The Observational and modeling communities
Assessment also noted the importance of met to discuss future needs for sea ice
enhanced ice forecasting and prediction to research at the Climate and Cryosphere
improving Arctic marine safety and (CliC) workshop in November 2011. These
environmental protection (Arctic Council, discussions sparked the creation of two
2009). white papers, outlining the observational
Several reports discuss the need for needs for advancing sea ice modeling
improved communications and increased (Massonnet and Jahn, 2012) and polar
stakeholder-involvement. A 2010 workshop climate modeling (Kay et al., 2012) as well as
by the SEARCH "Understanding Arctic
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Appendix A 63
highlighting some of the challenges of models in polar regions. Available at
comparing models with observations. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/jenkay/pc
The World Climate Research Program wg/PCWG_workingdoc_obs4modelers_
(WCRP) workshops on sea ice predictability, march13,2012.pdf, accessed June 5, 2012.
which occurred in 2010 (WCRP, 2010) and Massonnet, F., and A. Jahn. 2012.
in April 2012, brought together scientists Observational needs for sea ice models.
from the modeling and observational sea ice Available at http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/
communities. The aim of the workshops was users/fmasson/obs_CLIC_note.pdf,
the development of a draft implementation accessed June 5, 2012.
plan for a WCRP polar climate predictability NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
initiative (WCRP, 2012). Association). NOAA Sea Ice
Forecasting--Workshop Summary.
Available at http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/
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of Polar Climate, October 25-29, 2010, WCRP. 2012. WCRP/IASC Polar Climate
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