B
Workshop Information

The committee developed the workshop agenda and invited leading sea ice scientists, experts, and stakeholders to identify obstacles impeding progress in the prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal to decadal timescales, and to explore strategies to mitigate those obstacles. To address its task, the committee developed several fundamental working guidelines. The committee considered ice conditions during all seasons within the whole Arctic marine environment (i.e., Arctic Ocean and the subpolar seas, including the seasonal sea ice zone). The committee also provided the participants with a background document that summarized insights and information gained from previously related efforts and published works (see Appendix A). Challenges and strategies were identified during this workshop through presentations, breakout group discussions, and plenary summaries.

Workshop Agenda
May 9-10, 2012
University of Colorado Boulder, East Campus
Administrative and Research Center (ARC)
Boulder, CO

Workshop Goals: Arctic sea ice plays a number of important roles in moderating global climate and influencing oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Recent observed changes in the characteristics of the sea ice cover have various direct and indirect scientific, technological, and societal impacts such as the planning of new shipping ports, oil and gas exploration, increased marine transportation, as well as local and global climate and ecological changes. Currently, our limited understanding of the coupled and complex interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and atmosphere hinders our ability to predict the rate and magnitude of future change. Enhancements of our theoretical, observing, and modeling capabilities will be essential for advancing the understanding and prediction of sea ice over seasonal to decadal timescales. The goal of the workshop is to foster a dialogue between polar scientists, agency representatives, and stakeholders to explore the current major challenges, with a focus on whether there are new methods, observations, and technologies that might advance our predictive capabilities through improved understanding of seasonal to decadal sea ice variations. This dialogue will provide expert information for the preparation of a National Research Council report.

Overarching Questions: What is limiting advancements in sea ice predictions on seasonal to decadal timescales? How can these limitations be overcome to realize necessary advancements?

 



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B Workshop Information The committee developed the workshop agenda and invited leading sea ice scientists, experts, and stakeholders to identify obstacles impeding progress in the prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal to decadal timescales, and to explore strategies to mitigate those obstacles. To address its task, the committee developed several fundamental working guidelines. The committee considered ice conditions during all seasons within the whole Arctic marine environment (i.e., Arctic Ocean and the subpolar seas, including the seasonal sea ice zone). The committee also provided the participants with a background document that summarized insights and information gained from previously related efforts and published works (see Appendix A). Challenges and strategies were identified during this workshop through presentations, breakout group discussions, and plenary summaries. Workshop Agenda May 9-10, 2012 University of Colorado Boulder, East Campus Administrative and Research Center (ARC) Boulder, CO Workshop Goals: Arctic sea ice plays a number of important roles in moderating global climate and influencing oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Recent observed changes in the characteristics of the sea ice cover have various direct and indirect scientific, technological, and societal impacts such as the planning of new shipping ports, oil and gas exploration, increased marine transportation, as well as local and global climate and ecological changes. Currently, our limited understanding of the coupled and complex interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and atmosphere hinders our ability to predict the rate and magnitude of future change. Enhancements of our theoretical, observing, and modeling capabilities will be essential for advancing the understanding and prediction of sea ice over seasonal to decadal timescales. The goal of the workshop is to foster a dialogue between polar scientists, agency representatives, and stakeholders to explore the current major challenges, with a focus on whether there are new methods, observations, and technologies that might advance our predictive capabilities through improved understanding of seasonal to decadal sea ice variations. This dialogue will provide expert information for the preparation of a National Research Council report. Overarching Questions: What is limiting advancements in sea ice predictions on seasonal to decadal timescales? How can these limitations be overcome to realize necessary advancements? 65

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66 Appendix B Wednesday, May 9, 2012 **A shuttle will pick up workshop participants from the Boulder Marriott on Canyon Blvd at 7:50 A.M., though participants may walk if they wish.** Room: ARC 620 8:00 A.M. Breakfast 8:30 A.M. WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION Jackie Richter-Menge & John Walsh Purpose of the Study and the Workshop Cochairs 9:00 A.M. STAKEHOLDER PANEL Lawson Brigham, Moderator Gary Hufford, NOAA/NWS Vera Metcalf, Eskimo Walrus Commission LCDR Kenneth Boda, US Coast Guard Michael Terminel, Edison Chouest Offshore Key questions for the panelists: - What are the key questions you need answers to (and on what timescales?) - What information, beyond what is currently available to you, do you need to help make decisions? - What information are you receiving now that is useful to you? 9:35 A.M. DISCUSSION 10:15 A.M. Break SESSION 1 - OBSERVATIONS 10:30 A.M. OBSERVATIONS PANEL Rebecca Woodgate, Moderator Hajo Eicken, UAF Walt Meier, NSIDC Ron Lindsay, UW Key questions for the panelists: - What are the key gaps in our understanding? - What are the key observational challenges in the next five years? - What advances in observations could address these issues? - What interactions with modelers and stakeholders would benefit these goals? 10:55 A.M. DISCUSSION 11:30 A.M. BREAKOUTS Questions for breakout group discussion: - What are the key challenges and questions? - What are strategies for addressing these challenges? - What are the next steps that should be taken?

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Appendix B 67 Blue Group Green Group Leader: Jennifer Francis Leader: Robert Raye Staff: Katie Thomas Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring Rapporteur: Don Perovich Rapporteur: Ignatius Rigor Room # ARC446 Room # ARC248 Red Group Black Group Leader: Son Nghiem Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge Staff: Deb Glickson Staff: Lauren Brown Rapporteur: Ron Kwok Rapporteur: Jim Maslanik Room # RL233 Room # RL269 12:30 P.M. Lunch 1:45 P.M. REPORT BACK 2:45 P.M. Break SESSION 2 - MODELING 3:15 P.M. MODELING PANEL Marika Holland, Moderator Cecilia Bitz, UW Elizabeth Hunke, LANL Andrey Proshutinsky, WHOI Key questions for the panelists: - What are the key gaps in our understanding? - What are the key modeling challenges in the next five years? - What advances in modeling could address these issues? - What interactions with observationalists and stakeholders would benefit these goals? 3:40 P.M. DISCUSSION 4:15 P.M. BREAKOUTS Questions for breakout group discussion: - What are the key challenges and questions? - What are strategies for addressing these challenges? - What are the next steps that should be taken? Blue Group Green Group Leader: Jennifer Francis Leader: Robert Raye Staff: Katie Thomas Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring

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68 Appendix B Rapporteur: Sinead Farrell Rapporteur: Alex Jahn Room # ARC446 Room # ARC248 Red Group Black Group Leader: Son Nghiem Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge Staff: Deb Glickson Staff: Lauren Brown Rapporteur: Wieslaw Maslowski Rapporteur: Jenny Hutchings Room # RL233 Room # RL269 5:30 P.M. Adjourn **Shuttle will be available to take participants back to the hotel.** Thursday, May 10, 2012 **Shuttle will pick up workshop participants from the Boulder Marriott on Canyon Blvd at 7:50 A.M., though participants may walk if they wish.** Room: ARC 620 8:00 A.M. Breakfast 8:30 A.M. REPORT BACK SESSION 3--CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 9:30 A.M. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES PANEL John Walsh, Moderator Jim Overland, NOAA/PMEL Brendan Kelly, IARPC Pablo Clemente-Coln, NOAA/National Ice Center Jean-Claude Gascard, Universit Pierre et Marie Curie Key questions for the panelists: - What gaps or questions in sea ice prediction have not yet been addressed in previous efforts or reports? - What are some cross-cutting issues with observation and modeling interactions? - How can the various communities (observationalists, modelers, stakeholders) better coordinate? 10:05 A.M. DISCUSSION

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Appendix B 69 10:30 A.M. Break 11:00 A.M. BREAKOUTS Questions for breakout group discussion: - What are the key challenges and questions? - What are strategies for addressing these challenges? - What are the next steps that should be taken? Blue Group Green Group Leader: Jennifer Francis Leader: Robert Raye Staff: Katie Thomas Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring Rapporteur: Molly McCammon Rapporteur: Peter Wadhams Room # ARC446 Room # ARC248 Red Group Black Group Leader: Son Nghiem Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge Staff: Deb Glickson Staff: Lauren Brown Rapporteur: Justin Wettstein Rapporteur: Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth Room # RL233 Room # RL269 12:15 P.M. Lunch 1:15 P.M. REPORT BACK 2:15 P.M. WRAP-UP AND FINAL REMARKS Jackie Richter-Menge & John Walsh Cochairs 3:00 P.M. Adjourn **Shuttle will be available to take participants back to the hotel.** The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Participant List Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington LCDR Ken Boda, U.S. Coast Guard Lawson Brigham, University of Alaska Lauren Brown, National Research Council Pablo Clemente-Colon, NOAA National Ice Center Hajo Eicken, University of Alaska Fairbanks Chris Elfring, National Research Council John Farrell, U.S. Arctic Research Commission

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70 Appendix B Sinead Farrell, University of Maryland Jennifer Francis, Rutgers University Jean-Claude Gascard, Universit Pierre et Marie Curie Deb Glickson, National Research Council Jeff Gossett, USN Arctic Submarine Laboratory Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research Amy Holman, NOAA National Ocean Service Gary Hufford, National Weather Service--Alaska Region Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory Jenny Hutchings, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Janet Intrieri, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Alexandra Jahn, National Center for Atmospheric Research Brendan Kelly, Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee Ron Kwok, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Ron Lindsay, University of Washington Jim Maslanik, University of Colorado, Boulder Wieslaw Maslowski, Naval Postgrad School Larry Mayer, University of New Hampshire LCDR Blake McBride, U.S. Navy Molly McCammon, Alaska Ocean Observing System Walt Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Center Vera Metcalf, Eskimo Walrus Commission Son Nghiem, Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech Jim Overland, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Don Perovich, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Andrey Proshutinsky, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Amanda Purcell, National Research Council Robert Raye, Shell Projects and Technology Jackie Richter-Menge, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Ignatius Rigor, University of Washington Mike Terminel, Edison Chouest Offshore Katie Thomas, National Research Council Peter Wadhams, University of Cambridge John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Justin Wettstein, National Center for Atmospheric Research Jim White, University of Colorado, Boulder Rebecca Woodgate, University of Washington Jinlun Zhang, University of Washington