FIGURE 4.1 Notional diagram of the current and proposed management approaches. Box size indicates the relative importance of the element within the approach.

defense support to civil authorities). Events requiring DoD to perform each of these missions could unfold in innumerable, unexpected ways:

  • Threats of intentional attack may be unforeseeable.
  • Incidents of naturally occurring disease or unintentional chemical exposures cannot be anticipated.
  • Where and when the events will occur is largely unknowable.
  • Intelligence activities could provide warning of events, but cannot be taken as infallible.
  • Adversaries may adopt tactics to counter attempts to defend against attacks.
  • Unanticipated events could diminish defense and response capabilities.

The implication of these factors, when considered together, is that it is impossible to describe a concise set of most likely scenarios for which DoD needs to be prepared. In a fiscal environment that demands choices be made among which capabilities DoD can develop and sustain, decision making is even more challenging.

In these contexts, planning often relies on requirements-based processes which describe preferences for individual capabilities based on assumptions of the most likely conditions for which they will be needed.

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