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OCR for page 90
CHAPTER 5
CLOSING PERSPECTIVE
Discriminant analysis and cluster analysis must be
"classified" as among the most useful statistical techniques for
somety's problems. This report has-attempted to summarize and
assess their status in terms of methodology, theory, and software.
The material, it is hoped, will be informative both to users of these
techniques, who may want an update on the state-of-the-art, and
to professional statisticians, who may be more interested in
current research and what remains to be done.
Even casual readers of this report will have noticed tremen-
dous differences between the conditions of discriminant analysis
and cluster analysis. The former is a well developed subject with a
variety of effective methods and supporting theory. The latter is
lacking in film foundations and agreed-upon methodology.
Perhaps it is only along the software coordinate that there is
approximate parity. Indeed, there may be more software for clus-
ter analysis simply because of the proliferation of ad hoc methods
for this purpose.
In spite of its relatively advanced state, there are still many
interesting problems to be worked on in discriminant analysis.
Specific mention was maple in Chapters 2 and 3 of the promising
new areas of projection pursuit classification and additive logistic
regression analysis; the need for more study of biases associated
with the use of the bootstrap in estimating error rates and of the
tradeoffs between bias and mean square error performance of dif-
ferent estimates of error rates; and, generally, the opportunities
for additior~al development and experimentation with the variety
of non parametric and semiparametnc methods that are now avail-
able.
However, the greatest needs appear to be in the cluster
analysis arena. Unless significant breakthroughs in theory and
insights into the behavior of procedures are produced, cluster
analysis is likely to remain a largely descriptive technique whose
90
OCR for page 91
results are too dependent upon the vagaries of particular methods
A list of research problems, some of which were discussed in
Chapters 2 and 3, includes
.
.
.
developing a stronger base of inferential and diagnostic tools
(a high priority should be placed on the development of sam-
ple reuse techniques that will work in the clustering con-
text);
closing the gap between theory and practice (the need is
illustrated by the attractiveness of single linkage clustering
from a theoretical point of view in spite of its frequent poor
performance in practice);
compensating for the lack of adequate theory with empirical
development of new insights about existing algorithms
(clever and extensive simulation studies may be the only
way around the mathematical and theoretical difficulties in
this field);
finding tools for selection, scaling, and transformation of
variables that are effective at bringing out cluster structure
(iterative schemes may be required because the clusters are
unknown in advance);
learning how to make clustering algorithms robust to data
idiosyncrasies (the payoff may prove to be in the 'local"
application of the robustness concept rather than a crude
global attack that is insensitive to fine cluster structure)
Another area that is ripe for more research concerns prob-
lems that fall between discriminant analysis and cluster analysis
A fair amount of work has been done near the discriminant end of
the spectrum, e g, dealing with the situation where errors are
present in the group labels of the training sample Little is known
about how to do cluster analysis in the presence of limited prior
information on the composition of clusters
91
OCR for page 92
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
discriminant analysis