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Discriminant Analysis and Clustering (1988)
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications (CPSMA)

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CHAPTER 5 CLOSING PERSPECTIVE Discriminant analysis and cluster analysis must be "classified" as among the most useful statistical techniques for somety's problems. This report has-attempted to summarize and assess their status in terms of methodology, theory, and software. The material, it is hoped, will be informative both to users of these techniques, who may want an update on the state-of-the-art, and to professional statisticians, who may be more interested in current research and what remains to be done. Even casual readers of this report will have noticed tremen- dous differences between the conditions of discriminant analysis and cluster analysis. The former is a well developed subject with a variety of effective methods and supporting theory. The latter is lacking in film foundations and agreed-upon methodology. Perhaps it is only along the software coordinate that there is approximate parity. Indeed, there may be more software for clus- ter analysis simply because of the proliferation of ad hoc methods for this purpose. In spite of its relatively advanced state, there are still many interesting problems to be worked on in discriminant analysis. Specific mention was maple in Chapters 2 and 3 of the promising new areas of projection pursuit classification and additive logistic regression analysis; the need for more study of biases associated with the use of the bootstrap in estimating error rates and of the tradeoffs between bias and mean square error performance of dif- ferent estimates of error rates; and, generally, the opportunities for additior~al development and experimentation with the variety of non parametric and semiparametnc methods that are now avail- able. However, the greatest needs appear to be in the cluster analysis arena. Unless significant breakthroughs in theory and insights into the behavior of procedures are produced, cluster analysis is likely to remain a largely descriptive technique whose 90

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results are too dependent upon the vagaries of particular methods A list of research problems, some of which were discussed in Chapters 2 and 3, includes . . . developing a stronger base of inferential and diagnostic tools (a high priority should be placed on the development of sam- ple reuse techniques that will work in the clustering con- text); closing the gap between theory and practice (the need is illustrated by the attractiveness of single linkage clustering from a theoretical point of view in spite of its frequent poor performance in practice); compensating for the lack of adequate theory with empirical development of new insights about existing algorithms (clever and extensive simulation studies may be the only way around the mathematical and theoretical difficulties in this field); finding tools for selection, scaling, and transformation of variables that are effective at bringing out cluster structure (iterative schemes may be required because the clusters are unknown in advance); learning how to make clustering algorithms robust to data idiosyncrasies (the payoff may prove to be in the 'local" application of the robustness concept rather than a crude global attack that is insensitive to fine cluster structure) Another area that is ripe for more research concerns prob- lems that fall between discriminant analysis and cluster analysis A fair amount of work has been done near the discriminant end of the spectrum, e g, dealing with the situation where errors are present in the group labels of the training sample Little is known about how to do cluster analysis in the presence of limited prior information on the composition of clusters 91

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Representative terms from entire chapter:

discriminant analysis