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2
User Needs
In requesting this study, FEMA emphasized the need to learn
users' opinions concerning the applicability of loss estimate studies as
wed as how studies should be conducted and presented in the future.
Users were defined primarily as state and local officials responsible
for earthquake hazard reduction and disaster response planning.
A user needs workshop was held in September 1986. There was a
broad spectrum of invitees from all levels and aspects of government.
In addition to discussions in large and small groups, questionnaires
were used both before and at the end of the workshop to evaluate the
thinking of the participants. Owing to the breadth of the potential
user community and limitations on funds and time, this effort was not
a scientifically designed survey or experiment. Nonetheless the un-
dertaking yielded considerable insight into the needs and thoughts of
those who must ultimately use the results of loss estimates. Working
Paper B reports this study.
The user group did not consider previous studies to have been as
useful as they wished. The discussions also emphasized two questions:
Who will use a loss study? and For what purpose? These two
questions must be answered prior to selecting methods for producing
Toss estimates.
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CON1?[ICTS
The study of user needs clearly brought out several important
conflicts between what is desired and what is feasible, among differ-
ent groups within the user community, and between the users and
producers of loss estimates.
The Scale of Studies
Loss estimates of primary interest to this study typically are
made on a regional basis, that is, they involve an area encompassing
a number of political jurisdictions. Actions to reduce hazards must,
however, usually be undertaken by the individual jurisdictions. Offi-
cials working on this local level consider it vital that loss estimates be
disaggregated to the local level a need that can be in conflict with
procedures often used to assemble inventories and compute losses.
Specificity Versus [lability
Local officials also would like to know precisely which buildings
or other facilities are most susceptible to damage, so that mitigative
actions can be targeted. On the other hand, those making Toss esti-
mates fear legal or political reprisals if they are specific in identifying
potentially dangerous structures, and consider it essential that they
preserve anonymity by lumping together considerable numbers of
structures and evaluating Tosses only for such groups.
The Scenario Earthquake
The user group indicated that Toss studies should focus on a
relatively probable and yet damaging earthquake, and it was deemed
important that losses be estimated separately for different times of
the day. Using too large and too improbable an earthquake may
decrease the usefulness of a study. However, the group did not
indicate a suitable level of probability for a scenario earthquake.
There was little enthusiasm for being presented with losses from
several different scenario earthquakes having different probabilities.
Accuracy and Uncertainty
Several users indicated that the usefulness and credibility of a
study decrease when it gives a wide range of answers to determining
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potential loss from a scenario earthquake, even though they realized
the considerable inevitable uncertainty in loss estimates.
Cost Sharmg
Another theme that arose in the discussions involved a basic
financial conflict among different levels of government. A recent
trend has been the shifting of costs of earthquake programs from
the federal government to lower levels, or in other words increasing
state and local cost sharing. However, the user group said that
funds available for such studies at state and local levels are generally
inadequate.
SPECIFIC SUGG1:STIONS
Perhaps the most important point to emerge from the discussion
of user needs is the need for increased involvement of state and
local officials and policymakers in the entire loss study process. This
involvement has an educational value apart from the value of the
report that is eventually produced. The state and local officials must
ultimately use, disseminate, and explain the results of a study and
hence must understand just what has been done in preparing the loss
estimate. When loss studies are to be used by advocates of seismic
policy and planning, officials must be involved in the Toss estimation
study process, and reports must be understandable and timely. The
technical experts involved in producing the study will also benefit
from an increased awareness of users' needs and attitudes.
The survey of user needs identified types of facilities about which
it is most essential to have reliable loss estimates. High on the
list are dams, emergency public facilities (such as hospitals), and
electric, water distribution, and highway systems. Also expressed was
a need to know the location and vulnerability of facilities containing
hazardous materials.
Finally, the user group urged that inventories be prepared in
such a way that the information is available to update loss estimates
and can be disaggregated for nonearthquake purposes.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
local officials
