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ACRP AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM REPORT 50 Sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas

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ACRP OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE* TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2011 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* CHAIR OFFICERS James Wilding CHAIR: Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (re- VICE CHAIR: Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson tired) EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board VICE CHAIR MEMBERS Jeff Hamiel Minneapolis­St. Paul J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY Metropolitan Airports Commission Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA MEMBERS William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles James Crites Eugene A. Conti, Jr., Secretary of Transportation, North Carolina DOT, Raleigh Dallas­Fort Worth International Airport James M. Crites, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, TX Richard de Neufville Paula J. Hammond, Secretary, Washington State DOT, Olympia Massachusetts Institute of Technology Kevin C. Dolliole Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley Unison Consulting Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City John K. Duval Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington Austin Commercial, LP Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Regional General Manager, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Mandeville, LA Kitty Freidheim Steven T. Scalzo, Chief Operating Officer, Marine Resources Group, Seattle, WA Freidheim Consulting Steve Grossman Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO Jacksonville Aviation Authority Beverly A. Scott, General Manager and CEO, Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, Tom Jensen Atlanta, GA National Safe Skies Alliance David Seltzer, Principal, Mercator Advisors LLC, Philadelphia, PA Catherine M. Lang Lawrence A. Selzer, President and CEO, The Conservation Fund, Arlington, VA Federal Aviation Administration Gina Marie Lindsey Kumares C. Sinha, Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Los Angeles World Airports Lafayette, IN Carolyn Motz Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Hagerstown Regional Airport Transportation Studies; and Interim Director, Energy Efficiency Center, University of California, Davis Richard Tucker Kirk T. Steudle, Director, Michigan DOT, Lansing Huntsville International Airport Douglas W. Stotlar, President and CEO, Con-Way, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI EX OFFICIO MEMBERS C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin Paula P. Hochstetler EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Airport Consultants Council Sabrina Johnson Peter H. Appel, Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S.DOT U.S. Environmental Protection Agency J. Randolph Babbitt, Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT Richard Marchi Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA Airports Council International--North America Laura McKee Anne S. Ferro, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Air Transport Association of America John T. Gray, Senior Vice President, Policy and Economics, Association of American Railroads, Henry Ogrodzinski Washington, DC National Association of State Aviation Officials John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Melissa Sabatine Officials, Washington, DC American Association of Airport Executives Robert E. Skinner, Jr. David T. Matsuda, Deputy Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S.DOT Transportation Research Board Victor M. Mendez, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC SECRETARY Tara O'Toole, Under Secretary for Science and Technology, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Christopher W. Jenks Washington, DC Transportation Research Board Robert J. Papp (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC Cynthia L. Quarterman, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Peter M. Rogoff, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S.DOT David L. Strickland, Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S.DOT Polly Trottenberg, Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy, U.S.DOT Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC Barry R. Wallerstein, Executive Officer, South Coast Air Quality Management District, Diamond Bar, CA *Membership as of October 2010. *Membership as of March 2011.

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AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 50 Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas Manuel Ayres Jr. Hamid Shirazi Regis Carvalho Jim Hall Richard Speir Edith Arambula APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC. Elkridge, MD Robert David ROBERT E. DAVID & ASSOCIATES, INC. Fredericksburg, VA Derek Wong London, UK John Gadzinski FOUR WINDS CONSULTING Virginia Beach, VA Subscriber Categories Aviation · Safety and Human Factors Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2011 www.TRB.org

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AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 50 Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- Project 04-08 portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter- ISSN 1935-9802 national commerce. They are where the nation's aviation system ISBN 978-0-309-21321-9 connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon- Library of Congress Control Number 2011928921 sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most © 2011 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera- COPYRIGHT INFORMATION tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously to meet demands placed on it. published or copyrighted material used herein. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera- acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro- the material, request permission from CRP. gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte- nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, NOTICE and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera- tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision Governing Board of the National Research Council. 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary partici- pants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to Department of Transportation with representation from airport oper- procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved ating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and Council, and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear herein solely because contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. they are considered essential to the object of the report. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga- nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon- sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden- tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro- fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre- pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and Published reports of the selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper- AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP are available from: project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the Transportation Research Board Business Office intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service 500 Fifth Street, NW providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research Washington, DC 20001 reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- and can be ordered through the Internet at shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board's varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 50 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Theresia H. Schatz, Senior Program Officer Joseph J. Brown-Snell, Program Associate Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Editor ACRP PROJECT 04-08 PANEL Field of Safety Dana L. Ryan, St. Louis Airport Authority, St. Louis, MO (Chair) Steven G. Benson, Coffman Associates, Lee Summitt, MO Diana S. Dolezal, Greater Toronto Airports Authority, Toronto, ON Alex M. Kashani, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, Washington, DC Deborah T. Marino, Titusville­Cocoa Airport Authority, Titusville, FL Phillip C. Miller, California DOT, Sacramento, CA Xiaosong "Sean" Xiao, Xcel Energy, Minneapolis, MN Michel Hovan, FAA Liaison Matthew J. Griffin, Airports Council International­North America Liaison Richard Pain, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 4-08 by Applied Research Associates Inc. (ARA), Robert E. David & Associates, Inc. (RED), Dr. Derek Wong, and Mr. John Gadzinski. ARA was the prime contractor for this study, with RED, Dr. Wong and Four Winds Consulting serving as sub- consultants. Dr. Manuel Ayres, Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Principal Investigator; Mr. Hamid Shirazi, P.E., Project Engineer at ARA, was the Project Manager, and Mr. Richard Speir, ARA Mid-Atlantic Division Manager, served as Co-Principal Investigator. The other authors of this report are Mr. Regis Carvalho (ARA), Mr. Robert David (RED), Dr. Derek Wong, Consultant, Dr. Jim Hall, Mr. John Gadzinski (Four Winds), and Ms. Edith Arambula (ARA). The authors are very grateful for the guidance and help provided by the ACRP Panel for ACRP 4-08. A very important contribution to this study was provided by MITRE Corporation. They made available their comprehensive database of accidents, and it significantly improved the availability of information to develop the risk models presented in this study. The research team is particularly grateful to Mr. Wallace Feerrar and Mr. John LeBron, who kindly made the information available. The research team is also very grateful for the participation of eight volunteers listed in Appendix G to test the analysis software, and for the courtesy of Mr. Luis Rosa to authorize the use of his photos.

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FOREWORD By Theresia H. Schatz Staff Officer Transportation Research Board ACRP Report 50: Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas expands on the research presented in ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas to include the analysis of aircraft veer-offs, the use of declared dis- tances, the implementation of the Engineered Material Arresting System (EMAS) and the incorporation of a risk approach for consideration of obstacles in or in the vicinity of the RSA. A user-friendly risk analysis tool is provided for airport and industry stakeholders to quantify risk and support planning and engineering decisions when determining RSA requirements to meet an acceptable level of safety for various types and sizes of airports. The tool is interactive and versatile to help users determine the risk based on various input parameters. Current standards for RSAs are fairly rigid because they depend only on the type and size of aircraft using the runway. However, numerous factors affecting operations may lead to aircraft overruns, undershoots, and veer-offs. In many instances, standard RSAs are not fea- sible because of constraints, such as obstacles or land unavailability. In such cases, it is essen- tial that alternatives be evaluated to minimize risk, to the extent practicable, in relation to site-specific conditions. For example, depending on the type of operation, the relationship between actual runway distance required and the actual runway distance available for both landing and takeoff can significantly affect the risk. An approach for risk assessment of RSAs has been developed under ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas. ACRP Report 3 pro- vides a risk-based assessment that is rational and accounts for the variability of several risk factors associated with aircraft overruns and undershoots. The findings in ACRP Report 3 are the basis for further research to quantify and assess risk in the RSA environment. Under- standing this level of risk under a given set of conditions is essential to address RSA enhance- ment opportunities. ACRP Report 50 contains an analysis tool on the accompanying CD. The user guide to the analysis tool is in Appendix I of the report and is also on the CD and software help file. In addition, a presentation documenting the research method has been posted on the proj- ect web page, under ACRP Project 04-08. This research effort was conducted by Applied Research Associates, Inc. as the prime contractor, with Dr. Manuel Ayres serving as Prin- cipal Investigator, and Robert E. David & Associates and Four Winds Consulting as sub-consultants.

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CONTENTS 1 Summary 3 Chapter 1 Background 3 Introduction 4 Project Goals 4 RSA Improvement Alternatives 7 Chapter 2 Research Approach 7 Functional Hazard Analysis 8 Accident and Incident Data 12 Normal Operations Data 12 Aircraft Data 13 Chapter 3 Modeling RSA Risk 13 Event Probability (Frequency Model) 15 Event Location Models 18 EMAS Deceleration Model 22 Accuracy of Models 23 Chapter 4 Consequence Approach 23 Modeling Approach for Risk 25 Implementation of Approach 27 Additional Simplifications 28 Chapter 5 Analysis Software 28 Overview 28 Software Capabilities 28 Input Data 30 Output and Interpretation 31 Software Field Test 32 Chapter 6 Model Validation 34 Validation of Frequency Models 35 Validation of Risk Model 37 Chapter 7 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Research 37 Major Achievements 38 Limitations 39 Recommendations for Future Work 40 References 41 Abbreviations and Acronyms 43 Definitions

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A-1 Appendix A Functional Hazard Analysis Results B-1 Appendix B Summary of Accidents and Incidents C-1 Appendix C Sample of Normal Operations Data D-1 Appendix D Aircraft Database Summary E-1 Appendix E EMAS F-1 Appendix F Risk Criteria Used by the FAA G-1 Appendix G Plan to Field Test Software Tool H-1 Appendix H Summary of Results for Software/Model Tests I-1 Appendix I Software User's Guide Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.