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F-1 APPENDIX F Risk Criteria Used by the FAA Although the main objective of this research was to de- determining severity. Table F1 provides the FAA specific def- velop a tool to help airport planners evaluate RSA alterna- initions of severity. tives, the basis for the analysis was a quantitative assessment Likelihood is an expression of how often an event can be ex- of risk associated with runway excursions and undershoots. pected to occur at the worst credible severity. Table F2 shows Risk is the composite of the likelihood of the occurrence FAA likelihood definitions. A risk classification (high, medium, and severity of the outcome or effect (harm) of the hazard. or low) is provided based on the FAA risk matrix shown in Severity is the measure of how bad the results of an event are Figure F1 and the likelihood and severity scenario for each predicted to be. Likelihood should be considered only after hazard. Table F1. FAA severity definitions (FAA 2010). Hazard Severity Classification Minimal Minor Major Hazardous Catastrophic 5 4 3 2 1 No damage to - Minimal damage - Major damager to - Severe damage to - Complete loss of aircraft but to aircraft; aircraft and/or aircraft and/or aircraft and/or minimal injury or - Minor injury to minor injury to serious injury to facilities or fatal discomfort of little passengers; passenger(s)/ passenger(s)/ injury in consequence to - Minimal worker(s); worker(s); passenger(s)/wor passenger(s) or unplanned airport - Major unplanned - Complete ker(s); workers operations disruption to unplanned airport - Complete limitations (i.e. airport closure; unplanned airport taxiway closure); operations; - Major unplanned closure and - Minor incident - Serious incident; operations destruction of involving the use - Deduction on the limitations (i.e. critical facilities; of airport airport's ability to runway closure); - Airport facilities emergency deal with adverse - Major airport and equipment procedures conditions damage to destroyed equipment and facilities-

OCR for page 108
F-2 Table F2. FAA likelihood levels (FAA 2010). ATC Operational General Airport Specific Per Facility3 NAS-wide4 Probability of Expected to occur Expected to occur Expected to occur occurrence per more than once per more than once per every 1-2 days Frequent operation is equal week or every week A to or greater than 2500 departures 1x10-3 (4x10-4), whichever occurs sooner Probability of Expected to occur Expected to occur Expected to occur occurrence per about once every about once every several times per Probable operation is less month or 250,000 month month B than 1x10-3, but departures (4x10-6), equal to or greater whichever occurs than 1x10-5 sooner Probability of Expected to occur Expected to occur Expected to occur occurrence per about once every about once every 1 about once every Remote operation is less year or 2.5 million -10 years few months C than 1x10-5 but departures (4x10-7), equal to or greater whichever occurs than 1x10-7 sooner Probability of Expected to occur Expected to occur Expected to occur Extremely occurrence per once every 10-100 about once every about once every 3 Remote operation is less years or 25 million 10-100 years years D than 1x10-7 but departures (4x10-8), equal to or greater whichever occurs than 1x10-9 sooner Probability of Expected to occur Expected to occur Expected to occur Improbable Extremely occurrence per less than every 100 less than once less than once operation is less years every 100 years every 30 years E than 1x10-9 Note: Occurrence is defined per movement. Figure F1. FAA risk matrix (FAA 1988, 2010).