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THEN AND NOW 71
EMERGING PROSPECTS FOR THE to nonroad transportation. These approaches are already
COMING DECADE AND BEYOND more common with respect to passenger air travel than
road travel. I would expect to see additional applications
I expect that recent trends will continue in the United to urban passenger transit systems in the form of
States and Canada. There will be steady but gradual increased use of off-peak discounts and distance-based
expansion of congestion pricing in the face of continu- fares. Such approaches may also be applied to far more
ing opposition and skepticism. While proponents of sophisticated schedules governing the pricing of parking
congestion pricing have long emphasized its potential spaces at urban transit and commuter rail stations as
contributions to the improvement of system efficiency, well as at airports, sports stadia, and other venues that
growing shortages of revenues are likely to be as influ- generate a great deal of automobile traffic.
ential as concerns about efficiency in the continued Because equity continues to be an overriding concern
adoption of electronically priced congestion charges. in American politics and threatens to slow the progress
A few older American cities, such as New York and of pricing unless it is addressed in serious and practical
Boston, may eventually attempt area-based pricing ways, greater experimentation with relating pricing to
strategies that emulate successes that have been achieved income and equity is also likely. For example, I would
in Europe, but I expect facility-based applications of expect to see the introduction of lower-priced or "life-
pricing to continue to be more common in America for line" rates for low-income travelers on some facilities
reasons noted above. that decide to introduce road pricing.
Similarly, because strong objections remain to the In the much longer term, perhaps over 20 or more
"retrofitting" of congestion pricing on roads that have years, it seems reasonable to expect that motor fuel taxes
already been paid for by other sorts of user fees, I would will eventually become obsolete as the primary source of
predict that for some time to come pricing in North road userbased financing. Whether fuel cells or other
America is likely to be more commonly attempted at technological innovations become the principal means of
locations at which new capacity is being added in the powering motor vehicles, it is reasonable to postulate
form of additional lanes, such as HOT lanes, or where that policy makers will attempt to promote the adoption
entirely new road facilities are being added to the net- of new energy technologies by designing tax incentives
work. In some cases, these could be new lanes that are to encourage their introduction. With the widespread
specifically reserved for trucks and goods movement availability of electronic toll collection, however, it is
and that are paid for by tolls on the trucks that use them. reasonable to think that user fees and hypothecation,
Gradually, at specific bottlenecks, including heavily con- long a mainstay of American transportation system
gested major bridges providing access to the cores of finance, will evolve from reliance on the taxation of fuel
large urban regions, congestion pricing will be added as purchases to the more direct pricing of travel at the time
current toll schedules are revised, to manage flow more and place roads are used. This was, of course, originally
efficiently while increasing revenues. contemplated in the 1920s. In fact, those who adopted
I expect efficiency-based road pricing to be more the motor fuel tax at that time thought it was a tempo-
widely applied to goods movement over the coming rary and second-best solution. I believe they were right,
decade or two than to automobile traffic. Trucks, of though their vision will have taken much longer to
course, pay more through user fees than do cars, and achieve than they could ever have imagined.
there is more concern that current pricing mechanisms
do not charge them fairly. We expect the volume of goods
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