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84 I N T E R N AT I O N A L P E R S P E C T I V E S O N R O A D P R I C I N G strom et al. 2000; Giuliano 1994; Gomez-Ibanez 1992; pricing, the lack of empirical evidence makes the problem Langmyhr 1997). A general conclusion from various worse. The early study of area licensing in Singapore did researchers was that low-income or less flexible car users not attempt to assess the impacts on land use. It did ask (e.g., based on gender or flexibility of working schedule) businesspeople for their assessment of the scheme, which are likely to be the worst-off groups as a result of road was largely positive, but this may well have reflected a gen- pricing. If revenues are not redistributed in any way, road eral view in Singapore at the time that government was pricing generally results in gains for higher-income making the right decisions. Ten years later an attempt was groups and losses for lower-income groups (Else 1986; made to assess the impacts retrospectively. It was con- Cohen 1987). The way the revenues are distributed has cluded that there was no evidence of adverse impacts on a significant impact on the equity issue (Fridstrom et al. economic activity in the city center (Armstrong-Wright 2000; Giuliano 1994; Small 1992). 1986). However, this assessment was made difficult, both Some research has examined the horizontal dimen- because parking restrictions had been introduced at the sion of equity. Fridstrom et al. (2000) analyzed the spa- same time, about which businesses were much more criti- tial impact of road pricing cordons by using spatial cal, and because the Singapore economy had expanded accessibility for each zone segregated by modes as the rapidly in the intervening period, which masked any impact indicator. They suggested that the main adverse impact of road pricing. There is no documented evidence of any of a charging cordon is its boundary effect, which also similar assessments in Norway. Empirical evidence is being depends on the actual design of the scheme. A small cor- sought in London in the context of early claims of a don would affect residents inside the cordon the most, roughly 10% reduction in retail trade. whereas those outside the cordon are the main victims An earlier study asked businesses in three cities-- in a wider cordon scheme. In the study of the Singapore Cambridge, Norwich, and York--about the expected ALS, Holland and Watson (1978) indicated that the cor- impacts of a road pricing scheme charging 3 per day to don gave more advantage to the commercial firms out- enter the city center in the morning peak (Gerrard side the cordon. Obviously, this problem may be 2000). The majority anticipated positive impacts on the eliminated by the introduction of a different charging environment and congestion but negative impacts on regime, such as a time-based, a distance-based, or a the economy and tourism and on their own staffing and delay-based regime (Jones 2002). Halden (2003) also profitability. When asked whether road pricing would used the accessibility ratio between car and noncar from influence their next location decision, 53% said it would different zones for different purposes. The results and 26% that it might. showed a great diversity of the impacts on different Model-based predictions typically suggest much areas in the city and classes of users. smaller impacts. An analysis of the impacts of conges- Recent research has examined the approach to includ- tion charging in London was carried out by using the ing equity aspects in the design of road pricing systems. MEPLAN model of London and the South-East, Mayeres and Proost (2001) proposed a weighted welfare which reflects the effects of changes in accessibility on indicator giving more weight to the benefitcost incurred location (May et al. 1996a). For a 4 charge to enter by less advantaged groups. The test results showed that central London, the predictions were as follows: road pricing is an important element of the tax reform even with a greater emphasis on equity. Meng and Yang (2002) Central London employment would rise by 1.0%. developed a framework for calculating optimal road toll Inner and outer London employment would fall (to maximize social welfare) with constraints on the spatial by around 0.5%. equity impact. Recently, Sumalee (2003) proposed an ana- Household numbers would fall by 0.2% in central lytical method to identify an optimal location of charging London and 0.1% in outer London. cordon with spatial equity constraint. Jones (2002) pro- Household numbers would rise slightly in inner posed a simple approach to address equity concerns London. through scheme design, exemption, and discount. Higher-income household numbers would While there remain some uncertainties over equity increase in central London. impacts, they mainly relate to issues of scale, which will depend on detailed design, and of design approaches, A subsequent study in Edinburgh using the START/ which can be adapted to mitigate these impacts. DELTA model, which includes responses to both accessi- bility and environment (Bristow et al. 1999), indicated that a 1.50 charge to enter or leave the city center Economic Impacts would increase city center population by 2.2%; an ear- lier study with a similar model but different parameters The economic and relocation impacts of transport schemes (Still et al. 1999) had suggested a 1.8% reduction in city are notoriously difficult to measure or predict. For road center population and a 3.1% reduction in city center