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LAND USE FORECAST 25 appear to be limiting more widespread use of the land use scribed the need for outreach to decision makers, gar- model and the experience with the UrbanSim model. The nering internal and external support, and developing a following points were covered in his presentation. strong implementation program. The following points were covered in her presentation. Currently, the application of land use models by met- ropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and other agen- Development of the Oregon Department of Trans- cies is somewhat limited. There appear to be a number of portation's statewide model was initiated in response to factors influencing the lack of more widespread applica- changing planning requirements in the state, especially tion of integrated land use models. These factors include those related to land use. The first generation of the lack of funding and staff resources and skepticism about statewide model was implemented in the late 1990s. The new models. Information on the benefits of the new mod- experience in Oregon highlights the importance of out- els is needed to address these concerns. It is also important reach, internal and external support, and a well-thought- to show agencies that an incremental approach to imple- out implementation program to the successful introduction mentation can be used to introduce new land use models. of new modeling tools. Spatial interaction models, such as DRAM/ A first step in developing outreach programs is to EMPAL, are still being used in many areas. These models gain a clear understanding of the needs of decision mak- are constrained and have limitations related to spatial ers and stakeholders. Tools can then be developed with details and low behavioral content. UrbanSim provides a these needs in mind. Seeking opportunities to use models microlevel model that is very spatially detailed. UrbanSim to assist decision makers in making informed policy deci- is being used in some applications by MPOs, state depart- sions is an effective outreach technique. Making connec- ments of transportation, consulting firms, and universi- tions with decision makers and stakeholders early in the ties around the country. Although UrbanSim provides process can also help generate future support. benefits over the spatial interaction models and other Internal support within an agency for the develop- techniques, areas for improvements can be identified ment and ongoing use of new modeling tools is crucial. based on the experiences to date. Unlike infrastructure projects, new travel demand models UrbanSim requires a lot of data that may not always do not lend themselves to ribbon-cutting ceremonies. be available to the agency running the application. This Models are not highly visible to the public or decision limitation can be addressed by fitting UrbanSim to the makers. It is important to ensure that agency management available data. There may be issues related to geography supports the development and use of the new models. with the use of UrbanSim, but these can be addressed by External support is also very beneficial. Understanding the making the geography for location choice flexible. Urban- needs of other departments, agencies, and groups can be Sim uses one set of tools for estimation, specification, and helpful in garnering future support. simulation, but this problem can be resolved by integrat- The experience in Oregon highlights a number of ing these three functions. Constraint issues, such as those elements associated with a strong implementation pro- related to neighborhood choice, represent another possi- gram. First, it is important to select model projects ble concern. The theory of constrained choice is not a wisely. The ideal project should provide good exposure trivial problem and choice models are needed that better and demonstrate the model's ability to provide relevant reflect constraints. Accessibility measures represented by and useful information for decision makers. Second, it is log-sums are a travel model issue; however, this can be critical to develop and retain skilled staff. Third, the addressed by linking UrbanSim with activity-based mod- models must be used efficiently, including automating els. Computing (or run times) is another travel model model functions when possible. Fourth, it is essential to issue with sophisticated models. A breakthrough in develop effective communication skills. Use common assignment is needed to reduce run times. Additional language and terminology to explain analytical findings. research on travel behavior is needed to better integrate The use of everyday analogies is particularly helpful. models to reflect actual behavior. Finally, concerns related Identifying trade-offs is very important; it gets to the to software can be addressed through open platforms. heart of what decision makers care about. Development of the statewide-integrated model has a number of goals. The first goal is the full integra- THE PATH TO A STAGED IMPLEMENTATION OF tion of the model with explicit representation of econ- INTEGRATED MODELS omy, land use, and transport. A second goal focuses on linkages to environmental analyses and performance Becky Knudson indicators. A third goal is to build on the lessons learned from the first generation of the model. A final goal is to Becky Knudson discussed key elements to consider when ensure connection and coordination with the metropol- implementing a statewide integrated model. She de- itan modeling framework. Key criteria to accomplish