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BREAKOUT SESSION The Future of Travel Behavior and Data Collection Larry Blain, Puget Sound Regional Council Konstadinos Goulias, University of California, Santa Barbara Neil Kilgren, Puget Sound Regional Council Terry Michalowski, Puget Sound Regional Council Elaine Murakami, Federal Highway Administration Kay Axhausen, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Eiji Hato, University of Tokyo Ryuichi Kitamura, Kyoto University CATCHING THE NEXT BIG WAVE: ARE THE viduals retired or neared retirement. Information on BABY BOOMERS FORCING US TO CHANGE OUR individuals 50 years of age and older who appeared in REGIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS? more than one wave was examined. The behavior of these individuals was examined over time as they retired Larry Blain, Konstadinos Goulias, Neil Kilgren, or neared retirement. Terry Michalowski, and Elaine Murakami · TRB's recent Critical Issues in Transportation addresses the aging population in the country.1 The TRB Larry Blain discussed an ongoing study at the Puget report notes the following: "As the population ages, Sound Regional Council (PSRC) examining possible more people will have to give up driving, and with it the changes in travel behavior of individuals in the baby mobility that defined their adult life. Most people are boom generation as they retire or near retirement. He aging in place--that is, staying on where they have described the general demographic trends in Washington resided as adults--so that the majority of older Ameri- State, the panel survey of households in the Puget Sound cans are remaining in automobile-dependent areas. Los- region, and the preliminary assessment of factors to con- ing the ability to drive poses a hardship, particularly sider in possible changes in travel behavior due to retire- when adult children live far away." ment. The following points were covered in his · Before discussing the next big wave in demograph- presentation. ics and socioeconomic trends, it is important to examine the last big wave. Important recent trends in the Puget · PSRC covers four counties and has a population of Sound Region focused on increases in employment and approximately 3.5 million. Seattle is the largest city in decreases in average household size. In the 1960s, the region. From 1989 to 2002, PSRC conducted a panel approximately 40% of the population in the region was survey of 1,700 households in the metropolitan area. employed. From 1970 to 1990, the employed population The survey included 10 waves, with replacement house- in the region increased to 52%, which represents a major holds added during each wave if households dropped shift. At the same time, the average household size out. A 2-day travel diary was completed for each house- declined. As a result of these two trends, the number of hold member 15 years of age and older for all waves. A workers per household may be similar, but there are total of 259 households continued through all 10 waves. some important demographic shifts. These shifts include · The panel survey provides a good longitude data an increase in single-parent households, an increase in set that has been used for numerous studies. One of the studies examined potential changes in behavior as indi- 1 http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/general/CriticalIssues06.pdf. 59