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Lifelong Education as a Necessary Foundation for Success in Travel Modeling Rick Donnelly, PB Consult R emarkable theoretical and practical advances in has also opened new frontiers in travel modeling. Plan- travel forecasting have taken place over the past two ning applications of dynamic traffic assignments have decades. An unintended consequence of this has sprung up within the past year, and seem to be ideal com- been a widening gap between research and practice, which plements for activity- and tour-based models. Finally, this conference is designed to help overcome. There are there is a resurgence of interest in and development of many reasons for this gulf of knowledge, one being that integrated land usetransport models in several locations. most practitioners have not been able to stay current with This new-age modeling is rapidly moving beyond lim- new techniques. A lifelong training program to help close itations of the current practice in transportation plan- that gap is proposed as an essential part of the advancement ning, which has required researchers to draw from a of travel modeling. number of disciplines not normally encountered in travel Travel demand forecasting has been an important tool modeling. Recent advances and techniques from other for policy and investment analyses in the United States large-scale simulations in meteorology, operations for more than 40 years. A loosely defined standard prac- research, economics, natural resources modeling, and tice was established during the early years and is still in logistics are all integral parts of the current research. use. The principles of this practice, based upon four-step Moreover, software development has become an impor- sequential models of travel demand, are well known and tant part of R&D. The skill set needed to approach many documented in the literature. Several universities, as well of these new models is impressive in its breadth, as well as federal and some state transportation agencies, offer as its departure from current practice: courses in the subject. Most transportation planners in the United States are familiar with the process, with Travel choice behavior (solid foundation in discrete many possessing the experience necessary to apply, choice modeling concepts); extend, and maintain such models. Activity-based travel analysis; There has been considerable R&D in the past decade Traffic science, control systems, and intelligent that seeks to move the field beyond sequential models. transportation systems; Activity- and tour-based models have been widely dis- Network dynamics and disequilibrium; cussed in the literature, and several promising implemen- Simulation analysis and modeling, with emphasis tations have been achieved. Freight has become an on microsimulation and sample enumeration; important issue in transportation planning, but its Object-oriented programming; dynamics do not map well to the familiar four-step mod- Database systems; eling paradigm. Work on large-scale simulation models Spatial analysis tools and techniques; and such as Transportation Analysis and Simulation System Integrated land usetransport modeling. 121