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OCR for page 167
156 I N N O VAT I O N S I N T R AV E L D E M A N D M O D E L I N G , V O L U M E 2 need to be made whether or not the outcome is accept- traditional four-step model. To improve the usefulness of able because either outcome, ultimately, will need to be the tests, it will be important to reach a consensus supported by local decision makers. regarding the expected outcome. If the outcome from the model does not match the expected outcome, the results The second approach for testing the ABM will be will need to be assessed to determine whether they are directed at assessing the desire to develop a model that is illogical or providing valuable information that would more sensitive to policy variables. The policy-oriented modify the expected outcomes developed prior to run- tests will include evaluation of ning the model. As discussed above, the definition of rea- sonableness may be derived from observed conditions in Outcomes in designated transit-oriented develop- other cities. ment areas; Effects of different regional development densities (e.g., single-family housing versus multi-family, and so REFERENCES forth); Development in known industrial areas; 1. Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual. Development of specific "greenfield" areas, to see Travel Model Improvement Program, Federal Highway how well the model can predict the spread of the urban Administration, February 1997. area; and 2. Bhat, C., and F. Koppelman. Travel Model Improvement Outcomes in redevelopment areas. Program e-mail, December 16, 2005. 3. Parsons Corporation and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. The policy-oriented tests will be even more subjective "Validation Plan for the DRCOG Activity-Based Model." than the comparison of forecasts from the ABM and the March 2006.