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Hardware Requirements and Running Time for the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission Travel Forecasting Model Rebekah S. Anderson, Ohio Department of Transportation Zhuojun Jiang, Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission Chandra Parasa, Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission I n October 2001, the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning ated, consistent with the household and workforce vari- Commission (MORPC) contracted with PB Consult to ables in the zonal data. The output from the population develop a set of regional travel forecasting models. The synthesis model is a file with a record for every person in new model is a disaggregate tour-based model applied with the area containing various attributes attributed to that the microsimulation of each individual household, person, synthesized person. or tour. The new modeling system was completed in late 2. Auto ownership: The number of vehicles available 2004 and refined throughout 2005. The new model is being for each household is simulated. used by MORPC for conformity analysis, transit alterna- 3. Daily activity pattern: The daily activity pattern for tive analysis, and for highway Major Investment Study each person and the number of mandatory tours each projects in the Columbus region. person with a mandatory activity pattern makes during The model area is divided into 1,805 internal and 72 the day are simulated. external zones and includes Franklin, Delaware, and 4. Joint tour generation: Generation of tours under- Licking counties, and parts of Fairfield, Pickaway, Madi- taken by members of the same household. son, and Union counties. The primary inputs to the 5. Individual nonmandatory tour generation; model are transportation networks and zonal data, 6. Tour destination choice: Logit-based choice model where each zone has the standard socioeconomic char- (applied with Models 7 and 8). acteristics that one would normally find in a four-step 7. Time-of-day choice: Logit-based choice model model. The main differences from the prior four-step (applied with Models 6 and 8). model are that the new model accounts for travel at the 8. Tour mode choice: Logit-based choice model tour level, as opposed to the trip level, and for each indi- (applied with Models 6 and 7). vidual household and person, as opposed to zonal and 9. Stops and trip mode choice: This model determines market segment aggregates. if any stops are made on either the outbound (from home) or inbound leg of the tour and the location of those stops. MODEL FORMULATION The core choice models (1 through 9 as described The forecasting model consists of nine separate linked above) are applied in a disaggregate manner. Instead of models and other network processing steps. The nine applying aggregate fractional probabilities to estimate models are the number of trips, the new model is applied with the microsimulation of each individual household, person, 1. Population synthesis: A synthesized list of all or tour, mostly using Monte Carlo realization of each households and population for the entire area is gener- possibility estimated by the models, with use of a ran- 181